Reasons Behind Today's Surge in Crude Oil Prices to a 7-Week High
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 13 2026
0mins
Source: Barron's
Oil Prices Surge: The price of oil reached its highest level since November.
Tariff Announcement: President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from countries "doing business" with Iran.
Context of Protests: The tariff decision follows deadly protests occurring in Iran.
Market Reactions: The combination of tariffs and geopolitical tensions is influencing oil market dynamics.
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Analyst Views on CVX
Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVX is 176.95 USD with a low forecast of 158.00 USD and a high forecast of 206.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 179.230
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
Current: 179.230
Low
158.00
Averages
176.95
High
206.00
About CVX
Chevron Corporation is an integrated energy company. The Company produces crude oil and natural gas; manufactures transportation fuels, lubricants, petrochemicals and additives; and develops technologies that enhance its business and industry. The Company’s segments include Upstream and Downstream. Upstream operations consist primarily of exploring for, developing, producing and transporting crude oil and natural gas; liquefaction, transportation and regasification associated with LNG; transporting crude oil by major international oil export pipelines; processing, transporting, storage and marketing of natural gas; carbon capture and storage; and a gas-to-liquids plant. Downstream operations consist primarily of the refining of crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels, and transporting of crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment and rail car.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Chevron's Production Potential: Chevron anticipates a 50% increase in its production in Venezuela over the next two years, providing the company with an opportunity to be an early beneficiary in the country's energy revival, although the market remains fraught with uncertainties.
- U.S. Policy Shift: The Trump administration's policy changes towards Venezuela may assert control through economic means, with U.S. approval for buyers being crucial, which could influence Chevron's operational strategies and market entry.
- Investor Focus: While the political developments in Venezuela are noteworthy, Chevron's diversified business model suggests that investors should not rely solely on the country's energy recovery, but rather consider broader market dynamics and oil price volatility.
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- Market Rebound: Following a downturn in 2022, the Dow rebounded nearly 13% in 2023, with this breakthrough occurring against the backdrop of the index climbing over 1,100 points, demonstrating a robust market recovery.
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- Competitive Advantage: Following U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Exxon and Chevron are seizing opportunities in the country, potentially gaining an edge over European rivals like Shell and TotalEnergies, thereby strengthening their market position.
- Strong Stock Performance: Exxon Mobil's stock is currently trading 10.8% above its 20-day simple moving average and 24.4% above its 100-day moving average, with a 37.26% increase over the past 12 months, indicating a robust upward trend.
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Impact of US Sanctions on Chevron's Venezuela Operations
- Venezuela's Energy Outlook: Venezuela's energy sector continues to decline, and despite its large oil reserves, the impact of U.S. sanctions and political turmoil has significantly reduced its global importance, likely leading to modest effects on the overall energy industry.
- Chevron's Production Potential: Chevron anticipates a 50% increase in its production in Venezuela over the next two years, providing the company with an opportunity to be an early beneficiary in the country's energy revival, although the market remains fraught with uncertainties.
- U.S. Policy Shift: The Trump administration's policy changes towards Venezuela may assert control through economic means, with U.S. approval for buyers being crucial, which could influence Chevron's operational strategies and market entry.
- Investor Focus: While the political developments in Venezuela are noteworthy, Chevron's diversified business model suggests that investors should not rely solely on the country's energy recovery, but rather consider broader market dynamics and oil price volatility.
See More
Investment Opportunities Amid Historical High Valuations
- Market Valuation Analysis: The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio indicates that the current market is at a historical high, prompting caution among investors, yet there are still value stocks to consider, especially in a high-valuation environment.
- Chevron's Strong Performance: Chevron (CVX) excels in the oil and gas sector, with a low break-even cost of $30 per barrel and the acquisition of the Stabroek Block in Guyana, positioning it for robust future free cash flow generation.
- Progressive's Profitability: Despite a 30% decline in Progressive (PGR) stock over the past year, its underwriting profitability remains strong, with net premiums of $83 billion last year and a combined ratio of 87.4%, showcasing its competitive edge.
- Dividend Return Appeal: Progressive paid a special dividend of $13.50 per share in December, yielding approximately 6.5% based on its recent closing price, providing an attractive return opportunity for long-term investors.
See More
Dow Jones Index Surpasses 50,000 for the First Time
- Historic Milestone: The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 50,000 for the first time in 2026, marking a significant achievement since its inception in 1896, reflecting sustained investor confidence amid economic fluctuations.
- Tech Stock Influence: This milestone was largely driven by strong performances from technology stocks, particularly Nvidia's replacement of Intel, highlighting the market's heightened focus and investment enthusiasm in the artificial intelligence sector.
- Market Rebound: Following a downturn in 2022, the Dow rebounded nearly 13% in 2023, with this breakthrough occurring against the backdrop of the index climbing over 1,100 points, demonstrating a robust market recovery.
- Changing Economic Landscape: Despite concerns over Trump's tariff policies and the impact of AI spending, the market has shown resilience, indicating investor optimism regarding future economic growth.
See More
The Real Comeback: Understanding Why Energy, Materials, and Staples Stocks Are Outperforming the Market.
Software Stock Slump: The recent decline in software stocks has raised concerns among investors, reflecting broader market volatility.
Bitcoin's Winter Meltdown: Bitcoin continues to experience significant downturns, contributing to a challenging environment for cryptocurrency investors.
Dollar's Ongoing Malaise: The U.S. dollar is facing persistent weakness, impacting global trade and investment strategies.
Memification of Precious Metals: Precious metals are becoming increasingly popular in meme culture, indicating a shift in how these assets are perceived and traded.
See More
Williams Companies Explores Natural Gas Acquisition
- Acquisition Exploration: Williams Companies is exploring the acquisition of natural gas production assets in the U.S., aiming to provide a one-stop energy solution for hyperscale data center clients, thereby enhancing its competitive edge in the energy infrastructure sector.
- Strategic Transformation: Over the past year, the company has positioned itself as a leader in supplying energy for artificial intelligence infrastructure, supplementing its traditional pipeline business with new power generation capabilities, which is expected to bolster future profitability.
- Major Investment Projects: The Socrates project in Ohio is set to come online in the second half of this year, generating 440 megawatts of power, with Meta Platforms signing a purchase agreement, highlighting its strategic importance in meeting data center power demands.
- Future Growth Targets: The company aims to grow its EBITDA at a rate of 5% to 7% annually, with analysts watching to see if it will raise this target at the upcoming analyst day, further driving long-term growth.
See More
Exxon Mobil Expands Production Footprint with Trump Administration Support
- Production Expansion: Exxon Mobil is expanding its production footprint in several OPEC-linked nations, with support from the Trump administration facilitating negotiations in Iraq, Libya, and Algeria, highlighting the positive impact of U.S. foreign policy.
- Competitive Advantage: Following U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, Exxon and Chevron are seizing opportunities in the country, potentially gaining an edge over European rivals like Shell and TotalEnergies, thereby strengthening their market position.
- Strong Stock Performance: Exxon Mobil's stock is currently trading 10.8% above its 20-day simple moving average and 24.4% above its 100-day moving average, with a 37.26% increase over the past 12 months, indicating a robust upward trend.
- Technical Indicator Analysis: Although the relative strength index (RSI) is at 75.02, suggesting an overbought condition and potential pullback risks, the MACD remains above its signal line, indicating sustained bullish momentum, prompting investors to be cautious of possible market corrections.
See More
