Should I Buy CVX? CVX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Chevron Corp (CVX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

180.860

1 Day change

0.91%

52 Week Range

182.590

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is extended (RSI6 ~~83) and sitting just below/at a key resistance zone (~~182.76), which skews near-term risk toward a pullback rather than immediate upside.
Bull trend is intact (SMA5>SMA20>SMA200, MACD expanding), but the stock is already ~16% up YTD per analyst commentary—reward/risk is less attractive at current levels.
Options flow is bullish (call-heavy), yet very high IV percentile signals elevated expectations/uncertainty—often coinciding with choppier price action near highs.
Congress trading over the last 90 days shows more sells than buys (8 sales vs 4 purchases), reinforcing a more cautious near-term stance.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish continuation trend (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) with positive momentum (MACD histogram 1.008 and expanding).
Overbought: RSI_6 at 83.31 indicates the move is stretched; probability of short-term mean reversion is elevated.
Levels: Pivot ~173.08; support S1 ~167.09. Resistance R1 ~179.06 already cleared; price (181.23) is now pressing R2 ~182.76.
Near-term pattern odds (provided): ~80% chance of -0.74% next day and -6.19% next month, aligning with the “overbought near resistance” setup.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/Call OI ratio 0.6 and put/call volume ratio 0.26 are call-leaning (bullish positioning).
Volatility: 30D IV ~26.53 vs HV ~26.38 (roughly in-line), but IV percentile ~84.86 indicates IV is elevated versus its own history.
Activity: Today’s options volume ~~18,176 vs 5D/10D average volumes (~~56.5k / ~44.9k) suggests activity is not extreme despite the bullish skew.
Takeaway: Positioning looks optimistic, but elevated IV percentile often coincides with event-risk pricing and less favorable “buy-chase” entries at highs.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Venezuela catalyst: headlines about a potential U.S. general license and post-Maduro developments could unlock incremental investment/production opportunity for U.S. firms.
- International growth optionality: Syria offshore evaluation MOU and Equatorial Guinea gas project stake expansion support longer-run upstream/gas footprint.
- Analyst support: Multiple price target increases (Argus, UBS, BMO, JPM) reinforce bullish institutional narrative post-Q4.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Valuation pushback: HSBC downgraded to Hold citing stretched valuation after the rally.
- Macro/commodity risk: news notes pressure on European majors due to falling crude prices; if crude weakens, CVX earnings/cash flow can retrace despite discipline.
- Positioning signal: Congress trading shows more selling than buying (cautious tone).
- Setup risk: technically overbought near resistance, increasing odds of a pullback that could happen quickly.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Top line: Revenue $45.787B, -5.27% YoY (contraction).
Profitability: Net income $2.77B, -14.48% YoY; EPS $1.39, -23.63% YoY (earnings down despite the stock strength).
Margin: Gross margin 31.79%, +16.28% YoY (mix/realizations/efficiency improved), but not enough to offset the YoY earnings decline.
Read-through: Fundamentals are not accelerating; the stock’s near-term strength is more catalyst/commodity/expectations-driven than “clean growth-driven.”

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Ratings/targets trend: Broadly positive revisions after Q4, with several firms raising targets (Argus $203, UBS $212, BMO $190, JPM $181, BofA $188), while HSBC downgraded to Hold (PT $180) on valuation.
Wall St. pros (bull case): disciplined capital returns (dividends/buybacks), diversified integrated model, and geopolitical/production catalysts (Venezuela optionality, strong asset performance noted by BMO).
Wall St. cons (bear case): valuation looks stretched after the run-up; near-term cash flow sensitivity to crude prices; mixed earnings trajectory (YoY declines in revenue/EPS) makes the current price less forgiving.

19 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CVX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVX is 176.95 USD with a low forecast of 158 USD and a high forecast of 206 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

15 Buy

4 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 179.230

Low

158

Averages

176.95

High

206

Current: 179.230

Low

158

Averages

176.95

High

206

Argus

Buy

upgrade

$183 -> $203

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

Reason

Argus

Price Target

$183 -> $203

AI Analysis

2026-02-03

New

upgrade

Buy

Reason

Argus raised the firm's price target on Chevron to $203 from $183 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its recent Q4 earnings beat. This well-managed integrated oil company has a long track record of returning cash to shareholders, both in the form of dividends and by repurchasing its own common shares, and more importantly, Chevron has been able to perform these "shareholder-centric" functions in all kinds of price environments for crude oil, not just when crude prices are on an upswing, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

BMO Capital

Outperform

maintain

$170 -> $190

2026-02-02

Reason

BMO Capital

Price Target

$170 -> $190

2026-02-02

maintain

Outperform

Reason

BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Chevron to $190 from $170 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company's better Q4 results were a positive first step in executing its enhanced 2030 outlook, which delivers strong production, earnings, and free cash flow growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Permian, GoA, Australia, Eastern Med, Other Shale, Guyana all performed well in the quarter, the firm added.

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CVX Should I Buy

CVX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Chevron Corp (CVX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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