Should I Buy MTG? MTG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

27.310

1 Day change

0.15%

52 Week Range

29.970

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price is pushing into near-term resistance (R1 ~27.45, R2 ~27.98) with limited upside before supply likely shows up.
No edge from Intellectia signals today (no AI Stock Picker or SwingMax entry), so there’s no “must-buy-now” trigger.
Options positioning is skewed bearish (very high put open interest vs calls), while hedge funds are selling aggressively—both weaken the near-term risk/reward.
I’d treat MTG as a HOLD / avoid new buys at 27.16; a better buy would be on a pullback closer to the 26.60 pivot or below.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.094) and expanding → mild bullish momentum improving.
RSI(6) ~57 → neutral-to-slightly-bullish, not overbought; supports continuation but not a breakout signal by itself.
Moving averages: converging → consolidation/indecision; increases the importance of nearby support/resistance.
Key levels: Pivot 26.592 (important “line in the sand”); Resistance R1 27.45 then R2 27.979; Support S1 25.734.
Current setup: at 27.16, the stock is closer to resistance than support, making the immediate entry less attractive for a quick move.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Put open interest (12,295) vs call open interest (406) → extremely put-heavy OI, typically read as bearish/hedging pressure or structural positioning.
Flow today is small (total volume 9 contracts), so the signal is more about existing positioning than a large new directional bet.
Volatility: IV30 ~29.44 vs historical vol ~35.17 → options priced cheaper than realized vol recently; IV percentile ~55.78 (mid-range), not an extreme fear/greed reading.
Net takeaway: options market structure leans bearish (OI), while today’s flow is only mildly put-leaning (volume P/C 1.25).

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Q4 2025 EPS came in at $0.75 (slight beat vs expectations).
- Business momentum: Insurance in force >$303B (+3% YoY) and new business written $17B (+8% YoY).
- Cost tailwind: 2026 operating expense guide reduced to ~$190M–$200M from reinsurance treaty renegotiations.
- Risk/capital management: strengthened reinsurance program ($250M excess-of-loss + 40% quota share) can support capital flexibility and reduce tail-risk concerns.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Q4 2025 revenue missed / declined (~~-0.9% YoY to ~$298.65M), and net income fell (~~-8.3% YoY), which is consistent with the recent cautious analyst tone.
- Post-earnings sentiment mixed: shares dropped after the report, implying investors were not fully satisfied with the quality of the quarter (revenue/reserve dynamics).
- Fund flows: Hedge funds are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~804% QoQ), a meaningful near-term headwind.
- Options open interest is heavily put-skewed (very high OI put/call), which often aligns with cautious to bearish positioning.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: ~$298.65M, -0.93% YoY (top-line softness).
Net income: ~$169.31M, -8.33% YoY (profit down YoY).
EPS: $0.75, +4.17% YoY (earnings per share held up better than net income, but overall growth is not cleanly accelerating).
Operational outlook: management expects lower 2026 operating expenses, which is a forward positive despite the mixed Q4 print.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: price targets have compressed after earnings—Barclays cut PT to $28 (from $30) while keeping Equal Weight (neutral stance).
Prior tone: Barclays had raised PT to $30 in early Jan on a more constructive 2026 view; KBW (Keefe Bruyette) is more positive with Outperform and PT $28.
Wall Street pros/cons view:
- Pros: mortgage insurers can compound book value in a benign credit environment; better origination backdrop in 2026 could help.
- Cons: Q4 execution/quality (revenue miss, smaller reserve release) and reduced estimates have tempered upside enthusiasm.
Net: Street looks neutral to mildly constructive, but near-term upside appears capped vs the current price (~27.16) with multiple PTs clustered around ~$28.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MTG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MTG is 29.33 USD with a low forecast of 28 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 27.270

Low

Averages

29.33

High

Current: 27.270

Low

Averages

29.33

High

Barclays

Equal Weight

downgrade

$30 -> $28

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$30 -> $28

AI Analysis

2026-02-04

New

downgrade

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on MGIC Investment to $28 from $30 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm reduced estimates following the company's Q4 report. MGIC"s earnings missed due to lower sales and a smaller than expected reserve release, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Barclays

Equal Weight

maintain

$28 -> $30

2026-01-06

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$28 -> $30

2026-01-06

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Barclays raised the firm's price target on MGIC Investment to $30 from $28 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm sees additional upside in select consumer finance name in 2026. A "benign' credit environment sets the stage for loan growth, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays also forecasts a better mortgage origination market in 2026. The firm adjusted price targets as part of its 2026 outlook.

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MTG Should I Buy

MTG Should I Buy

Should You Buy MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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