Not a good buy right now: price is below the pivot (43.79) after a sharp post-earnings drop, and momentum is weakening.
Setup is closer to a “watch for stabilization/bounce” than an aggressive entry: RSI is depressed (~38.6) and price is hovering near support (42.42), but there is no proprietary buy signal to prioritize.
Options positioning is slightly defensive (OI put/call > 1) and today’s options volume is essentially nonexistent, limiting how much confidence you can take from options sentiment.
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.184) but positively contracting, suggesting upside momentum is fading rather than strengthening.
RSI: RSI_6 at 38.65 is weak (near oversold territory), consistent with the recent selloff; this can support a short-term bounce, but it’s not a stand-alone buy trigger.
Moving averages: converging MAs indicate consolidation/transition rather than a clean uptrend.
Support: 42.42 then 41.58 (breakdown risk if selling continues)
Resistance: 45.16 then 46.01 (reclaiming 43.79 then 45.16 would improve the technical posture).
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest: calls 89 vs puts 100; OI put/call = 1.12 suggests mildly defensive positioning.
Volume: 0 contracts traded today (puts and calls), so real-time sentiment from volume is not informative.
Volatility: 30D IV 43.96 vs historical vol 17.98 (options are pricing elevated move), but IV is falling vs recent averages (IV 5D avg ~59.3; 10D ~62.1), implying post-event volatility compression.
Technical Summary
Sell
13
Buy
1
Positive Catalysts
Earnings/news tone: reported record core EPS of $4.71 for 2025 (+39% YoY) and revenue growth ~7% (supports longer-term fundamental narrative).
Q4 non-GAAP EPS beat expectations (1.21 vs ~1.18 expected), which can underpin support if the market re-rates after initial reaction.
Pattern-based forward stats provided: modeled probabilities skew toward potential upside over 1 week/1 month (though not a guarantee).
Net income: $36.2M, -5.24% YoY (profit growth lagging revenue).
EPS: 0.87, -5.43% YoY (earnings per share down YoY in the quarter despite the broader-year “record core EPS” headline).
Takeaway: growth is present on revenue, but quarterly earnings traction is mixed, helping explain the post-report weakness.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price target change data was provided, so a true “trend” in Wall Street revisions can’t be confirmed from this dataset.
What Wall Street would likely debate from the available info:
Pros: record 2025 core EPS (+39% YoY) and steady revenue growth.
Cons: quarterly net income/EPS declined YoY and revenue missed consensus, which can drive cautious near-term outlooks.
Influential/political flows: no recent Congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are flagged as Neutral with no significant recent trends.
Wall Street analysts forecast HMN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HMN is 48 USD with a low forecast of 48 USD and a high forecast of 48 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HMN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HMN is 48 USD with a low forecast of 48 USD and a high forecast of 48 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 44.660
Low
48
Averages
48
High
48
Current: 44.660
Low
48
Averages
48
High
48
BMO Capital
Michael Zaremski
Outperform
initiated
$48
AI Analysis
2025-07-28
Reason
BMO Capital
Michael Zaremski
Price Target
$48
AI Analysis
2025-07-28
initiated
Outperform
Reason
BMO Capital analyst Michael Zaremski initiated coverage of Horace Mann with an Outperform rating and $48 price target. The company's captive-focused distribution differs from the majority of peer insurers who rely on 3rd party independent sales agents, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BMO adds that Horace Mann's strategy of selling mainly to schoolteachers via its captive salesforce is one that can bear meaningful fruit, so long as it executes on its current revamped sales strategy.
Piper Sandler
Neutral
maintain
$44 -> $45
2025-07-03
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$44 -> $45
2025-07-03
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler raised the firm's price target on Horace Mann to $45 from $44 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm is reducing its EPS estimates in the space driven by continued fee and spread headwinds. This was confirmed by a rather challenging pre-announcement of variable investment income from MetLife (MET) in late June suggesting this swing factor for a large chunk of lifecoland got sequentially worse, which also - in Piper's opinion - pushes out the normalization factor towards 2026.
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