WTI Crude Hits $80, Notches Best Day In Over 2 Months: 'Peak Oil Demand Still A Decade Away'
- Oil Prices Surge: Oil prices had a strong session, with WTI and Brent crude rising due to increased demand expectations and supply constraints.
- Goldman Sachs' Oil Demand Forecast: Goldman Sachs revised its long-term global crude demand forecast upwards, projecting growth until 2034 and peak demand around 2034.
- Energy Stocks Rally: The United States Oil Fund and Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund rose, reflecting the positive oil performance.
- Goldman Sachs' Energy-Stock Strategies: The investment bank named Buy- and Sell-rated stocks across the energy sector based on its long-term views on the oil market.
- Refining Exposure Recommendations: Goldman Sachs recommends specific companies for their exposure to refining market tightness and biofuel leadership.
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- Target Price Increase: Roth Capital raised ConocoPhillips' price target from $105 to $112 while maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting the company's stable fourth-quarter performance and unchanged 2026 capital spending plans amid progress on cost-cutting initiatives.
- Cost Reduction Strategy: ConocoPhillips plans to cut $1 billion in capital and operating costs in 2026, a proactive measure to address profit expectations falling short of Wall Street due to declining crude prices, showcasing the company's resilience in challenging market conditions.
- Production Growth Outlook: Roth Capital anticipates modest production growth for ConocoPhillips in 2027, with total volumes expected to rise by about 2% and oil production by around 1%, indicating the company's ability to maintain production levels while controlling costs.
- Asset Sales Progress: ConocoPhillips completed $3.2 billion in asset sales in 2025 and is on track to meet its $5 billion divestment goal by the end of 2026, reflecting ongoing efforts to streamline operations and optimize its asset portfolio.
Energy Sector Forecast: The energy sector is expected to experience tempered performance in 2026, with analysts predicting a global oil surplus and weaker demand following a modest growth of 8.7% in 2025.
Mixed Earnings Reports: Major oil companies are reporting mixed earnings, with Chevron beating earnings per share expectations but missing revenue forecasts, while ExxonMobil and others show strong year-to-date gains despite some misses.
Future Growth Projections: Chevron forecasts a compound annual growth rate of around 10% for cash flow from operations by 2026, while ConocoPhillips and Shell aim to reduce operating costs significantly this year.
Market Trends and Investment Opportunities: The energy sector remains favorable for investors, with recommendations for stocks like ExxonMobil and Chevron, as well as ETFs that provide exposure to top natural gas and oil producers.
- ConocoPhillips Price Target Increase: ConocoPhillips has raised its star price target from $120 to $130.
- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects a positive outlook for the company's performance in the market.
- Debt Recovery Priority: CEO Ryan Lance emphasized during the Q4 earnings call that ConocoPhillips' current focus is on recovering owed funds from two judgments rather than increasing production, reflecting the company's cautious approach in a politically unstable market.
- Citgo's Potential Value: Lance indicated that Washington aims to keep the Citgo refinery in U.S. hands, suggesting that Conoco could recover part of its judgment through this process, highlighting a strategic shift towards asset monetization.
- Challenges of Returning to Venezuela: Even if sanctions ease, Lance stressed that a return would require stable policies and good local relations, which are currently absent, showcasing the company's high vigilance towards risks.
- Strategic Significance for Investors: ConocoPhillips is not relying on Venezuelan oil production to boost earnings but is betting on legal recovery to strengthen its balance sheet, a strategy that could provide cash returns independent of crude price fluctuations.
- Strong Performance in Energy Stocks: Late Friday afternoon, energy stocks saw a broad increase, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index rising by 1.7%, reflecting optimistic market expectations for a recovery in energy demand, which could drive stock prices of related companies higher.
- Market Sentiment Improves: As signs of global economic recovery become more apparent, investor confidence in the energy sector has strengthened, likely leading to increased capital inflows into this area and enhancing overall market performance.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: Analysts indicate that with the rebound in oil and natural gas prices, energy companies are expected to achieve profit growth in the coming quarters, further solidifying their importance in investment portfolios.
- Investor Focus Shifts: The rise in energy stocks has attracted investor attention, potentially leading to more capital flowing into the sector, which could drive capital expenditures and expansion plans for related firms.
- Legal Recovery Priority: Conoco's CEO Ryan Lance emphasized during the Q4 earnings call that the company is focusing on recovering cash through legal means for expropriated assets rather than immediately resuming production in Venezuela, reflecting a cautious approach in a politically unstable market.
- Strategic Value of Citgo: Lance indicated that Washington aims to keep the Citgo refinery in U.S. hands, suggesting that Conoco could recover part of its judgment through this process, highlighting a strategic shift towards asset monetization despite ongoing appeals and licensing hurdles.
- Cautious Market Re-entry: Even if sanctions ease, Lance stressed that a return to Venezuela would require stable policies and security, which are currently lacking, leading the company to adopt a patient strategy to avoid unnecessary risks.
- Investor Focus: Conoco is not relying on Venezuelan production to boost earnings but is betting on legal recovery to strengthen its balance sheet, potentially providing a cash return that does not depend on crude prices, which could be a rare upside for investors.











