Should I Buy COP? COP 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy ConocoPhillips (COP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

107.620

1 Day change

2.51%

52 Week Range

108.440

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now at ~$106.36: price is extended into resistance with short-term overbought momentum, while sentiment (options + analysts) is mixed.
Upside case exists (bullish trend + strong sector tape), but risk/reward at this level looks unfavorable for an impatient entry.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.
Congress trading is balanced (buys and sells roughly equal), not providing a clear “smart money” edge.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, confirming an uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram +0.499 and expanding supports continued upside momentum.
Overbought/extension: RSI(6) ~70.9 (hot/near-overbought), implying limited immediate upside before a pause.
Levels: Pivot ~100.76 (key support reference). Price is already above R1 104.48 and sitting just below R2 106.78 (near-term resistance). A clean break above R2 would be needed to justify chasing from here; otherwise, odds favor consolidation.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning vs flow is mixed: OI P/C 0.87 leans bullish (more call open interest), but Volume P/C 1.83 shows put-heavy trading today (more near-term hedging/defensive activity).
Volatility: 30D IV ~30.99 vs HV 28.35 (IV > realized), and IV percentile ~68.67 suggests options are relatively pricey.
Activity: Today’s option volume is below its 30-day average (~57% of avg), so today’s put-leaning flow is notable but not a high-conviction surge.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Sector tailwind: Energy is strong early 2026 (news notes ~12.9% YTD surge), and COP is repeatedly cited as a top pick.
- Technicals remain bullish (moving averages + positive MACD).
- Analyst upside still exists from several firms with targets clustered roughly $109–$121 (despite recent cuts/downgrades).
- Near-term catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-05 (pre-market) can reset expectations if results/forward commentary are strong.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Event-driven overhang: headline risk around ~$12B Venezuela-related legal claims could pressure sentiment/valuation.
- Price is extended into resistance (near R2 ~106.78) with short-term overbought readings—poor chase setup.
- Options tape shows put-heavy volume (short-term caution/hedging).
- Oil macro concerns reflected in analyst notes: oversupply/soft demand narrative and lower long-dated oil price assumptions are weighing on the group.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue $15.03B, +15.26% YoY (top-line strength).
Profitability weakened: Net income $1.72B, -16.18% YoY and EPS $1.38, -21.59% YoY.
Margins: Gross margin 24.12%, -13.64% YoY, indicating pressure from pricing/cost mix despite revenue growth.
Read-through: business is growing on revenue, but earnings power is compressing—this typically caps multiple expansion unless commodity realizations improve.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: ratings have softened into late Jan 2026 with notable downgrades.
Key changes:
- JPMorgan (2026-01-20): downgraded to Neutral, PT $98.
- BofA (2026-01-16): downgraded to Underperform, PT $102 (valuation-driven).
- Morgan Stanley (2026-01-23): kept Overweight but cut PT to $108.
- Offsetting positives: Susquehanna raised PT to $115 (Positive); UBS/Mizuho maintained Buy/Outperform with ~$120+ PTs; Jefferies stayed Buy $120.
Wall Street “pros” view:
- Pros: high-quality E&P with leverage to energy strength; several Buy/Outperform stances remain; targets mostly above spot.
- Cons: multiple firms are cutting price decks/targets and flagging oversupply; valuation and oil outlook are driving downgrades.
Influential buying/selling: Congress trades in last 90 days are balanced (4 buys vs 4 sells; median buy ~$3.3M vs median sell ~$0.8M), not a clear directional signal.

18 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast COP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COP is 113.39 USD with a low forecast of 98 USD and a high forecast of 132 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

15 Buy

3 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 104.980

Low

Averages

113.39

High

132

Current: 104.980

Low

Averages

113.39

High

132

BMO Capital

Outperform

maintain

$105 -> $115

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

BMO Capital

Price Target

$105 -> $115

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Outperform

Reason

BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on ConocoPhillips to $115 from $105 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company remains on track with major project execution across LNG and Willow and has plenty of dry powder to fund targeted capital returns, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Wells Fargo

Sam Margolin

Overweight

maintain

$132 -> $133

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Wells Fargo

Sam Margolin

Price Target

$132 -> $133

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Overweight

Reason

Wells Fargo analyst Sam Margolin raised the firm's price target on ConocoPhillips to $133 from $132 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm notes the company's results yield no change to its positive thesis. 45% return of capital goal implies in-line $4B buyback at $60 Brent. ConocoPhillips is positioned for peer-leading regular dividend growth through the end of the decade and beyond, Wells adds.

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COP Should I Buy

COP Should I Buy

Should You Buy ConocoPhillips (COP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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