Warren Buffett and Michael Saylor: Who Had the Superior Investment This Quarter?
Berkshire Hathaway's Investment Strategy: In Q3, Berkshire Hathaway accumulated a record cash reserve of $381.7 billion, primarily in U.S. Treasury bills, reflecting Warren Buffett's strategy of preserving capital for future investment opportunities amid high equity valuations.
MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Acquisition: MicroStrategy acquired 42,706 Bitcoin at an average price of $116,000 per coin, bringing its total holdings to over 640,000, as part of Michael Saylor's aggressive strategy to use Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation.
Performance Comparison: In Q3, Bitcoin rose 16%, significantly outperforming Treasury bills, which returned only 1%, while Berkshire Hathaway stock gained 3.5%. This highlights the contrasting performance of traditional investments versus cryptocurrencies.
Investment Outlook: Buffett's cautious approach with T-bills offers stability and potential for future gains, while Saylor's Bitcoin strategy presents high volatility and speculative risks, with both strategies appealing to different types of investors based on their risk tolerance.
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- Earnings Revive Dilution Concerns: Strategy's Q4 results revealed a significant loss primarily due to unrealized Bitcoin markdowns, raising investor concerns about the funding of future Bitcoin purchases, which led to a 2.43% pre-market drop in MSTR shares to $131.63.
- Bitcoin Stress Test Scenario: CEO Phong Le outlined a worst-case scenario where Bitcoin would need to plummet to $8,000, equating the company's Bitcoin reserves with net debt, potentially necessitating restructuring or additional equity issuance, which poses a threat to investor confidence.
- Long-Term Outlook and Historical Context: Le noted past Bitcoin drawdowns of 75%, yet remains optimistic about Bitcoin's future, predicting it could reach $1 million within seven years, indicating the company's resilience to market fluctuations.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite Bitcoin's 0.9% decline to $69,843 over 24 hours, retail sentiment on Stockwits remained neutral, with discussion levels rising from 'extremely low' to 'extremely high', reflecting increasing market interest in Bitcoin.
- Continued Bitcoin Purchases: Strategy Inc. acquired $90 million worth of Bitcoin in the week ending February 8, an increase from $75 million the previous week, indicating ongoing confidence in Bitcoin investment.
- Holding Position Update: As of February 8, Strategy holds 714,644 BTC at an average purchase price of approximately $76,000, totaling an investment of $54.35 billion, reflecting a significant commitment to the cryptocurrency market.
- Stock Price Volatility: During the Bitcoin purchasing period, Strategy's shares fell 4.22% pre-market on Monday to $129.23, suggesting market caution regarding its Bitcoin investment strategy.
- Funding Source Analysis: The Bitcoin purchases were funded through the sale of 616,715 Class A shares, indicating an active capital management strategy to support its cryptocurrency investments.
- Bitcoin Trading Volume Surge: Despite Bitcoin's sideways movement, trading volume spiked nearly 25% in the last 24 hours, indicating increased market participation that could set the stage for future price volatility.
- Market Liquidation Overview: Over $290 million was liquidated in the market within the last 24 hours, with long liquidations surpassing shorts, reflecting a cautious market sentiment and a shift in risk appetite that may influence investor decisions.
- Strong Stock Market Performance: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 20.20 points to close at a new high of 50,135.87, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also gained 0.47% and 0.9%, respectively, indicating renewed investor interest in risk assets.
- Ethereum Funding Rate Changes: CryptoQuant noted a significant increase in positive funding rates for Ethereum on BitMEX, suggesting rising demand, but this could also signal potential price correction risks, prompting investors to remain vigilant.
- Market Rebound: Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around $70,000 on Monday after last week's sharp sell-off, down approximately 44% from its all-time high of over $126,000 set last October, indicating fragile market confidence.
- Analyst Insights: Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani noted that the current price action is merely a crisis of confidence, asserting that the 'bear case for Bitcoin is the weakest in its history,' and he anticipates Bitcoin reaching a target of $150,000 by year-end.
- ETF Outflow Situation: Despite a 50% correction in Bitcoin prices last week, spot ETFs experienced only a 7% outflow, suggesting that investor confidence in Bitcoin's long-term potential remains intact, which could lead to a recovery in investments.
- Quantum Computing Risk: Chhugani stated that while quantum computing poses a potential threat to Bitcoin's encryption, this risk is not imminent, and the blockchain is well-positioned to adapt, supported by major players like Strategy, BlackRock, and Fidelity.
- Crisis of Confidence: Bernstein analysts highlight that the current 50% drop in Bitcoin reflects a crisis of confidence rather than structural damage, labeling this downturn as the weakest bear case in history, indicating that market confidence in Bitcoin remains intact.
- Policy Support and Institutional Involvement: With a pro-Bitcoin U.S. president in office, successful ETF trading, and major companies incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets, the current market environment provides stronger support for Bitcoin compared to previous bear markets.
- Technical Support and Market Dynamics: Bitcoin is currently testing the critical support level of $73,375, and if this fails, it could face a dangerous air pocket with major support not appearing until $62,000-$65,000, with analysts noting that the market needs to reclaim $81,000-$82,000 to reverse the current downtrend.
- Future Growth Potential: Bernstein's $150,000 price target implies a 119% upside from current levels, with expectations that improved liquidity conditions and institutional adoption will help overcome the confidence crisis and drive Bitcoin prices higher.
- Bitcoin Acquisition: Strategy announced the purchase of 1,142 Bitcoins at an average price of $78,815 for a total of $90 million between February 2 and February 8, demonstrating the company's commitment to investing during market downturns.
- Funding Source: The acquisition was financed by selling 616,715 shares of Class A common stock, generating $89.5 million in net proceeds, indicating the company's flexibility in capital management and long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin.
- Current Holdings: As of February 8, Strategy holds 714,644 Bitcoins with an aggregate purchase cost of $54.35 billion and an average cost basis of $76,056, reflecting a significant investment in the cryptocurrency market.
- Market Outlook: Despite reporting a $12.4 billion loss in Q4, the CEO remains optimistic about Bitcoin's future, predicting it could reach $1 million in seven years, showcasing the company's confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin.










