Should I Buy MSTR? MSTR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Strategy Inc (MSTR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

134.930

1 Day change

26.11%

52 Week Range

457.220

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: the stock is in a steep, accelerating downtrend and is heading into earnings after-hours today with elevated uncertainty.
Oversold conditions (RSI ~13) can produce a sharp bounce, but without proprietary buy signals and with bearish trend structure, the odds favor unstable price action rather than a clean entry.
Options positioning is mildly bullish (put/call ratios < 1), but implied volatility is extremely elevated, signaling the market expects large moves around earnings.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: No signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend is decisively bearish: moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), confirming a downtrend across timeframes.
Momentum is worsening: MACD histogram is negative (-3.964) and negatively expanding, implying downside momentum is still building.
RSI(6) at ~13.39 is extremely oversold, which increases the probability of a short-term snapback, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Price context: current price 110.54 is below the S1 (119.665) and near S2 (106.018). A break/hold around ~106 is key; failure increases downside risk.
Pattern-based stats provided: 70% chance of +1.27% next day and +1.05% next week, but -4.96% next month—supports the view of a potential short bounce within a broader downtrend.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/skew: Open interest put/call ratio 0.8 and volume put/call ratio 0.74 both lean call-heavy (more bullish positioning than bearish).
Activity: today’s option volume 677,100 is ~111.6% of the 30-day average, showing elevated participation into a major event (earnings).
Volatility: IV30 ~85.22 vs historical vol ~64.76; IV percentile ~89.24 indicates very expensive options and a market pricing in big moves.
Interpretation: despite bullish skew, the high IV + earnings timing implies traders are positioning for volatility rather than expressing high-conviction directional upside.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

can trigger a fast mean-reversion bounce.
suggests some traders are leaning bullish.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

introduces high gap-risk; impatience + event risk is a poor combo for entries.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 128.691M, up +10.87% YoY (top-line growth positive).
Profitability/earnings: Net income fell sharply to 2.645B (-877.58% YoY) and EPS dropped to 8.42 (-589.53% YoY), indicating highly volatile earnings (consistent with crypto/treasury-related impacts rather than steady operating performance).
Gross margin: 70.46%, up +0.07% YoY (stable/strong margin profile, but not the main driver of reported earnings volatility).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: multiple firms cut price targets materially (Clear Street 443→268; Canaccord 474→185; Mizuho 484→403; Bernstein 600→450), largely tied to lower crypto prices and reduced premium assumptions.
Ratings trend: despite target cuts, most maintain bullish ratings (Buy/Outperform/Overweight). Monness Crespi moved to Neutral from Sell, suggesting bearish conviction has eased after the selloff.
Wall Street “pros” view: MSTR is still seen as a differentiated vehicle for leveraged bitcoin exposure and potentially resilient through a crypto downturn.
Wall Street “cons” view: valuation/premium to holdings compresses when crypto falls; earnings can show large unrealized losses; targets are being reset lower, reflecting diminished near-term upside expectations.

14 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MSTR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MSTR is 453.17 USD with a low forecast of 229 USD and a high forecast of 705 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

12 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 106.990

Low

229

Averages

453.17

High

705

Current: 106.990

Low

229

Averages

453.17

High

705

H.C. Wainwright

Buy

maintain

$500 -> $540

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

H.C. Wainwright

Price Target

$500 -> $540

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

H.C. Wainwright raised the firm's price target on Strategy to $540 from $500 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm says it remains its top stock pick for 2026 coming out of the company's Q4 earnings release. Wainwright's thesis for Strategy to outperform Bitcoin in 2026 by way of consistent Bitcoin per share gains remains intact, and is on full display in today's session, with the stock surging 20% vs. a 10% recovery in Bitcoin prices. Meanwhile, from an execution standpoint, the firm is encouraged by Strategy's pace of Bitcoin purchases to start the year despite extremely weak investor sentiment for both Bitcoin and Strategy, as the company still managed to raise $3.9B to purchase an additional 41,002 Bitcoin in the month of January alone.

BTIG

Buy

downgrade

$630 -> $250

2026-02-06

New

Reason

BTIG

Price Target

$630 -> $250

2026-02-06

New

downgrade

Buy

Reason

BTIG lowered the firm's price target on Strategy to $250 from $630 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q4 earnings call was overshadowed by bitcoin prices that traded off 8% in the hours leading up to the call, the analyst tells investors in a research note. BTIG reminds investors that Strategy's convertible debt is "extremely over-collateralized" and is covered even if bitcoin prices drew down 80%. Further, the company has 30 months of USD reserves to cover preferred equity dividend payments, adds the firm. It cites the recent bitcoin volatility for the target cut.

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MSTR Should I Buy

MSTR Should I Buy

Should You Buy Strategy Inc (MSTR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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