Wall Street Anticipated a Surge of Deals Under Trump in 2025, But It Proved More Complicated
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 19 2025
0mins
Source: CNBC
M&A Activity Overview: Despite high-profile megadeals in 2025, overall U.S. mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity saw a decline in transaction volume compared to the previous year, with approximately 13,900 deals recorded, down from 15,940 in 2024.
Impact of Economic Factors: The sluggishness in dealmaking was attributed to tariff uncertainties, high interest rates, and a complex regulatory environment under the Trump administration, which created a cautious atmosphere among executives and bankers.
Sector-Specific Trends: While deal value increased significantly due to large transactions, middle-market deal volume remained low, particularly in the automotive and retail sectors, which faced challenges from tariffs and changing consumer dynamics.
Future Outlook: As the year progressed, there was a resurgence in deal activity, particularly in the banking sector, with expectations for a more active M&A landscape in 2026, driven by a more favorable regulatory environment and ongoing consolidation trends.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy NSC?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on NSC
Wall Street analysts forecast NSC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NSC is 316.56 USD with a low forecast of 297.00 USD and a high forecast of 340.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 306.910
Low
297.00
Averages
316.56
High
340.00
Current: 306.910
Low
297.00
Averages
316.56
High
340.00
About NSC
Norfolk Southern Corporation is a holding company engaged in the rail transportation business. The Company is engaged in the rail transportation of raw materials, intermediate products, and finished goods in the Southeast, East, and Midwest and, via interchange with rail carriers, to and from the rest of the United States. It also transports overseas freight through several Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports. It offers an intermodal network in the eastern half of the United States. Its railroad operations system reaches various manufacturing plants, electric generating facilities, mines, distribution centers and transload facilities. It serves various industries such as agriculture, forest and consumer products, automotive, chemicals, and metals and construction. Its coal franchise supports the electric generation market, directly serving over 18 coal-fired power plants, as well as the export, domestic metallurgical, and industrial markets, through direct rail and river, lake, and coastal.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
UBS Downgrades Norfolk Southern Corp to Neutral from Buy; Increases Target Price to $342 from $320
Company Update: Norfolk Southern Corporation has made a decision to cut its buyback program.
Target Price Adjustment: The target price for the company's stock has been raised to $342 from a previous $320.
See More
Wall Street's Latest Rating Changes Overview
- Amazon Downgrade: DA Davidson downgraded Amazon from Buy to Neutral, citing concerns that Amazon Web Services (AWS) is losing market share amid competition from Microsoft and Google, indicating a potential need for increased investment to regain its leading position in the cloud computing sector.
- Merit Medical Initiation: BTIG initiated coverage on Merit Medical with a Buy rating, highlighting its comprehensive product portfolio used across various interventional procedures, which underscores the company's high-quality positioning and growth potential in the medical device market.
- JBS Buy Rating: UBS initiated coverage on Brazilian meat company JBS with a Buy rating and a price target of $19.5 per share, implying a 23% upside, reflecting market confidence in its re-rating and potential stock price appreciation.
- Vistra Upgrade: Goldman Sachs upgraded Vistra from Neutral to Buy, projecting a potential EBITDA increase of 3-9% by 2028, indicating investor optimism regarding its future profitability and growth prospects in the nuclear energy sector.
See More
Norfolk Southern Drives 60 Projects for Economic Growth
- Economic Growth Initiatives: In 2025, Norfolk Southern Corporation advanced over 60 industrial development projects, representing $7.7 billion in investments that significantly boosted local economies and job growth.
- Rail Facility Expansion: These projects primarily focus on new or expanded rail-served facilities, indicating strategic decisions aimed at enhancing transportation capacity and service quality, thereby solidifying the company's market position.
- Strategic Network Advantage: The extensive reach of Norfolk Southern's strategic network enabled this economic activity, enhancing the company's influence across states and industries while promoting diversified regional economic development.
- Customer Investment Confidence: The trust and investment willingness from customers reflect Norfolk Southern's leadership in the industry, with future prospects for attracting more investments to support ongoing economic growth.
See More
Norfolk Southern Drives Economic Growth with $7.7 Billion in Projects
- Investment Scale: In 2025, Norfolk Southern's customers advanced over 60 industrial development projects with a total investment of $7.7 billion, which not only spurred local economic growth but also strengthened the company's market position in rail services.
- Manufacturing Signals: Despite the U.S. Manufacturing PMI contracting for much of 2025, Norfolk Southern's pipeline continues to attract long-term private investments, highlighting its strategic importance in growth corridors across the Southeast and Midwest.
- Land Sales Strategy: In 2025, Norfolk Southern implemented a disciplined real estate strategy that linked land sales to integrated freight opportunities, enhancing network capacity and attracting rail-served industries, showcasing its forward-looking approach to future economic development.
- Merger Proposal Impact: Norfolk Southern's merger proposal with Union Pacific aims to create a unified coast-to-coast freight rail network, expected to accelerate U.S. reindustrialization and provide manufacturers with faster shipping options, further solidifying the economic foundation.
See More
Norfolk Southern Corporation Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Safety and Efficiency Gains: Norfolk Southern reported zero mainline derailments in Q4 2025, demonstrating strong safety management under merger pressures while steadily improving operational efficiency and customer experience.
- Solid Financial Performance: Despite a 4% decline in overall freight volume, the company achieved an EPS of $3.22 and an operating ratio of 65.3% in Q4, reflecting effective execution in cost control and revenue management.
- Cost Control Commitment: Management raised the 2026 cost takeout target from $100 million to $150 million, with capital spending projected to decrease by $300 million to $1.9 billion, indicating a cautious strategy in an uncertain economic environment.
- Cautious Market Outlook: Management expressed a cautious outlook for future markets, anticipating a 1% revenue headwind due to intensified competition and economic pressures, while the outlook for vehicle production and intermodal transport remains complex.
See More
Norfolk Southern Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Norfolk Southern reported a Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.22, exceeding expectations by $0.46, indicating strong profitability amidst challenging market conditions.
- Revenue Decline: The company generated $3 billion in revenue for Q4, down $50 million or 2% year-over-year, primarily due to a 4% decline in volume, reflecting weakened market demand.
- Improved Operating Ratio: After adjusting for merger-related expenses and the Eastern Ohio incident, the operating ratio for the quarter stood at 65.3%, demonstrating progress in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Market Outlook Challenges: Despite the earnings beat, the decline in volume and revenue may pose challenges for future market performance, necessitating close monitoring of signs of industry recovery.
See More
UBS Downgrades Norfolk Southern Corp to Neutral from Buy; Increases Target Price to $342 from $320
Company Update: Norfolk Southern Corporation has made a decision to cut its buyback program.
Target Price Adjustment: The target price for the company's stock has been raised to $342 from a previous $320.
See More
Wall Street's Latest Rating Changes Overview
- Amazon Downgrade: DA Davidson downgraded Amazon from Buy to Neutral, citing concerns that Amazon Web Services (AWS) is losing market share amid competition from Microsoft and Google, indicating a potential need for increased investment to regain its leading position in the cloud computing sector.
- Merit Medical Initiation: BTIG initiated coverage on Merit Medical with a Buy rating, highlighting its comprehensive product portfolio used across various interventional procedures, which underscores the company's high-quality positioning and growth potential in the medical device market.
- JBS Buy Rating: UBS initiated coverage on Brazilian meat company JBS with a Buy rating and a price target of $19.5 per share, implying a 23% upside, reflecting market confidence in its re-rating and potential stock price appreciation.
- Vistra Upgrade: Goldman Sachs upgraded Vistra from Neutral to Buy, projecting a potential EBITDA increase of 3-9% by 2028, indicating investor optimism regarding its future profitability and growth prospects in the nuclear energy sector.
See More
Norfolk Southern Drives 60 Projects for Economic Growth
- Economic Growth Initiatives: In 2025, Norfolk Southern Corporation advanced over 60 industrial development projects, representing $7.7 billion in investments that significantly boosted local economies and job growth.
- Rail Facility Expansion: These projects primarily focus on new or expanded rail-served facilities, indicating strategic decisions aimed at enhancing transportation capacity and service quality, thereby solidifying the company's market position.
- Strategic Network Advantage: The extensive reach of Norfolk Southern's strategic network enabled this economic activity, enhancing the company's influence across states and industries while promoting diversified regional economic development.
- Customer Investment Confidence: The trust and investment willingness from customers reflect Norfolk Southern's leadership in the industry, with future prospects for attracting more investments to support ongoing economic growth.
See More
Norfolk Southern Drives Economic Growth with $7.7 Billion in Projects
- Investment Scale: In 2025, Norfolk Southern's customers advanced over 60 industrial development projects with a total investment of $7.7 billion, which not only spurred local economic growth but also strengthened the company's market position in rail services.
- Manufacturing Signals: Despite the U.S. Manufacturing PMI contracting for much of 2025, Norfolk Southern's pipeline continues to attract long-term private investments, highlighting its strategic importance in growth corridors across the Southeast and Midwest.
- Land Sales Strategy: In 2025, Norfolk Southern implemented a disciplined real estate strategy that linked land sales to integrated freight opportunities, enhancing network capacity and attracting rail-served industries, showcasing its forward-looking approach to future economic development.
- Merger Proposal Impact: Norfolk Southern's merger proposal with Union Pacific aims to create a unified coast-to-coast freight rail network, expected to accelerate U.S. reindustrialization and provide manufacturers with faster shipping options, further solidifying the economic foundation.
See More
Norfolk Southern Corporation Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Safety and Efficiency Gains: Norfolk Southern reported zero mainline derailments in Q4 2025, demonstrating strong safety management under merger pressures while steadily improving operational efficiency and customer experience.
- Solid Financial Performance: Despite a 4% decline in overall freight volume, the company achieved an EPS of $3.22 and an operating ratio of 65.3% in Q4, reflecting effective execution in cost control and revenue management.
- Cost Control Commitment: Management raised the 2026 cost takeout target from $100 million to $150 million, with capital spending projected to decrease by $300 million to $1.9 billion, indicating a cautious strategy in an uncertain economic environment.
- Cautious Market Outlook: Management expressed a cautious outlook for future markets, anticipating a 1% revenue headwind due to intensified competition and economic pressures, while the outlook for vehicle production and intermodal transport remains complex.
See More
Norfolk Southern Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Norfolk Southern reported a Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $3.22, exceeding expectations by $0.46, indicating strong profitability amidst challenging market conditions.
- Revenue Decline: The company generated $3 billion in revenue for Q4, down $50 million or 2% year-over-year, primarily due to a 4% decline in volume, reflecting weakened market demand.
- Improved Operating Ratio: After adjusting for merger-related expenses and the Eastern Ohio incident, the operating ratio for the quarter stood at 65.3%, demonstrating progress in cost control and operational efficiency.
- Market Outlook Challenges: Despite the earnings beat, the decline in volume and revenue may pose challenges for future market performance, necessitating close monitoring of signs of industry recovery.
See More
