Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: price is extended (RSI ~80) and sitting near resistance, raising near-term pullback risk.
Trend is still bullish (MA stack + expanding MACD), so it’s more of a hold/avoid chasing than a structural short.
Sentiment/positioning is mixed-to-cautious: multiple recent price target cuts, no fresh news catalysts, and Congress only sold (4 sales, 0 buys) in the last 90 days.
SwingMax: Entry signal triggered on 2026-01-08; stock is up ~5.29% since then, which makes today a less attractive “fresh entry” for a buy-low swing setup.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram is positive and expanding (momentum still up).
Overbought: RSI_6 = 80.354, suggesting upside is crowded/extended and a pullback risk is elevated.
Levels: Pivot ~295.5 (key mean-reversion area); resistance band near R1 ~305.1 (already exceeded) and R2 ~311.1 (next upside area). Current price ~306.2 is close to the upper resistance zone.
Pattern-based forward bias (from similar candlesticks): modestly negative skew over the next week/month (approx. -2.08% 1w, -0.83% 1m), supporting “don’t chase highs.”
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Put/Call ratios < 1 (both OI and volume) lean mildly bullish (more call positioning than puts).
Volatility: 30D IV ~15.92 vs historical vol ~22.45; IV percentile ~2.39 / IV rank ~3.66 => options are priced for unusually low movement.
Flow: today’s option volume is ~1005% of the 30D average (large spike in activity), but without an extreme put skew—reads more like active positioning than panic hedging.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
and very low IV can make directional call structures relatively “cheap.”
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term technical risk: RSI is overbought and price is pressing resistance (greater odds of a quick pullback than a clean breakout).
Wall Street tone has softened: multiple firms recently cut price targets following Q4 results/guidance concerns.
Fundamental trend is deteriorating YoY (revenue, EPS, margins down in the latest quarter).
Congress trading: 4 sales / 0 buys in 90 days suggests cautious-to-negative signaling from influential participants.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $2.974B, -1.65% YoY (top-line softness).
Net income: $644M, -12.02% YoY.
EPS: 2.86, -11.46% YoY (earnings contraction).
Gross margin: 33.32%, down YoY (margin pressure). Overall: growth trends are negative in the most recent quarter.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: predominantly Neutral/Hold/Sector Perform with price target cuts after Q4 (Baird to $288 Neutral; RBC to $320 Sector Perform; Citi to $300 Neutral; Barclays to $320 Overweight but trimmed).
Pros (Street bull case): Barclays still sees long-term value (including potential strategic combination narrative) despite weak Q4.
Cons (Street bear case): softer volume/intermodal competition, weaker-than-expected Q4, and limited/uncertain guidance; repeated EPS “haircuts” flagged by RBC.
Net takeaway: Wall Street stance is cautious, and current price (~$306) is not obviously cheap versus the cluster of revised targets ($288–$320).
Wall Street analysts forecast NSC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NSC is 316.56 USD with a low forecast of 297 USD and a high forecast of 340 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NSC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NSC is 316.56 USD with a low forecast of 297 USD and a high forecast of 340 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Buy
8 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 306.910
Low
297
Averages
316.56
High
340
Current: 306.910
Low
297
Averages
316.56
High
340
UBS
Buy
to
Neutral
downgrade
$320 -> $342
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$320 -> $342
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Buy
to
Neutral
Reason
UBS downgraded Norfolk Southern (NSC) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $342, up from $320. The company's 4Q and 2026 commentary indicate weaker yields and operating ratio versus UBS's prior assumptions, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm also believes the Surface Transportation Board rejection of the initial Union Pacific (UNP) merger application indicates the deal process could be a greater overhang on Norfolk shares.
Baird
Neutral
downgrade
$293 -> $288
2026-02-02
Reason
Baird
Price Target
$293 -> $288
2026-02-02
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Baird lowered the firm's price target on Norfolk Southern to $288 from $293 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following quarterly results which showed they are still facing intermodal competition.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for NSC
