Venezuela's Political Turmoil Boosts Oil Prices
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy COP?
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Oil Price Surge: The ousting of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro led to a significant increase in oil prices from $57 to $65 in January, highlighting the strong impact of geopolitical events on the oil and gas market, which is expected to further drive stock prices of related companies.
- ConocoPhillips Stock Rally: ConocoPhillips shares rose 11.3% in January, despite reporting adjusted earnings per share of $1.02, which missed analyst estimates by $0.08; however, the market remains optimistic about its future potential earnings.
- Debt Recovery Prospects: ConocoPhillips stands to recover $10 billion owed by Venezuela, representing 7.4% of its current market cap, and a successful regime change could unlock more of Venezuela's untapped oil reserves, enhancing the company's financial position.
- Iranian Instability Impact: Escalating protests in Iran, the world's ninth-largest oil producer, have further influenced global oil prices, benefiting companies like ConocoPhillips as they navigate the complexities of the oil market amidst political unrest.
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Analyst Views on COP
Wall Street analysts forecast COP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for COP is 113.39 USD with a low forecast of 98.00 USD and a high forecast of 132.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 107.620
Low
98.00
Averages
113.39
High
132.00
Current: 107.620
Low
98.00
Averages
113.39
High
132.00
About COP
ConocoPhillips is an exploration and production company. Its Alaska segment primarily explores for, produces, transports and markets crude oil, natural gas and NGLs. The Lower 48 segment consists of operations located in the 48 contiguous states in the United States and the Gulf of Mexico. Canadian operations consist of the Surmont oil sands development in Alberta, the liquids-rich Montney unconventional play in British Columbia and commercial operations. The Europe, Middle East and North Africa segment consists of operations principally located in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea, the Norwegian Sea, Qatar, Libya, Equatorial Guinea and commercial and terminalling operations in the United Kingdom. Asia Pacific segment has exploration and production operations in China, Malaysia, Australia and commercial operations in China, Singapore and Japan. Other International segment includes interests in Colombia as well as contingencies associated with prior operations in other countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
ConocoPhillips Shares Surge Amid Geopolitical Events
- Stock Surge: ConocoPhillips shares rose 11.3% in January, reflecting market optimism for the oil and gas sector, particularly as geopolitical events drove oil prices from $57 to $65, indicating investor confidence in future earnings.
- Venezuela Regime Change: The U.S. special forces ousted Venezuelan President Maduro on January 2, and while Venezuela currently produces only 1% of global oil, its vast reserves position it for potential supply recovery, enhancing prospects for Conoco to reclaim $10 billion in arbitration awards.
- Iran Protests Impact: Escalating protests in Iran represent a significant challenge to the ruling regime, and as the world's ninth-largest oil producer, Iran's instability further supports rising oil prices, creating additional market opportunities for Conoco.
- Earnings Report: Although Conoco reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.02, missing analyst estimates by $0.08, the stock remained stable post-earnings due to current oil prices at $65, reflecting optimistic market expectations for future profitability despite the earnings miss.
See More
Venezuela's Political Turmoil Boosts Oil Prices
- Oil Price Surge: The ousting of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro led to a significant increase in oil prices from $57 to $65 in January, highlighting the strong impact of geopolitical events on the oil and gas market, which is expected to further drive stock prices of related companies.
- ConocoPhillips Stock Rally: ConocoPhillips shares rose 11.3% in January, despite reporting adjusted earnings per share of $1.02, which missed analyst estimates by $0.08; however, the market remains optimistic about its future potential earnings.
- Debt Recovery Prospects: ConocoPhillips stands to recover $10 billion owed by Venezuela, representing 7.4% of its current market cap, and a successful regime change could unlock more of Venezuela's untapped oil reserves, enhancing the company's financial position.
- Iranian Instability Impact: Escalating protests in Iran, the world's ninth-largest oil producer, have further influenced global oil prices, benefiting companies like ConocoPhillips as they navigate the complexities of the oil market amidst political unrest.
See More
Energy Dominates in 2026—Are the Oil Giants Facing Challenges?
Energy Sector Forecast: The energy sector is expected to experience tempered performance in 2026, with analysts predicting a global oil surplus and weaker demand following a modest growth of 8.7% in 2025.
Mixed Earnings Reports: Major oil companies are reporting mixed earnings, with Chevron beating earnings per share expectations but missing revenue forecasts, while ExxonMobil and others show strong year-to-date gains despite some misses.
Future Growth Projections: Chevron forecasts a compound annual growth rate of around 10% for cash flow from operations by 2026, while ConocoPhillips and Shell aim to reduce operating costs significantly this year.
Market Trends and Investment Opportunities: The energy sector remains favorable for investors, with recommendations for stocks like ExxonMobil and Chevron, as well as ETFs that provide exposure to top natural gas and oil producers.
See More
CONOCOPHILLIPS: UBS Increases Price Target from $120 to $130
- ConocoPhillips Price Target Increase: ConocoPhillips has raised its star price target from $120 to $130.
- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects a positive outlook for the company's performance in the market.
See More
ConocoPhillips Focuses on Debt Recovery Over Drilling in Venezuela
- Debt Recovery Priority: CEO Ryan Lance emphasized during the Q4 earnings call that ConocoPhillips' current focus is on recovering owed funds from two judgments rather than increasing production, reflecting the company's cautious approach in a politically unstable market.
- Citgo's Potential Value: Lance indicated that Washington aims to keep the Citgo refinery in U.S. hands, suggesting that Conoco could recover part of its judgment through this process, highlighting a strategic shift towards asset monetization.
- Challenges of Returning to Venezuela: Even if sanctions ease, Lance stressed that a return would require stable policies and good local relations, which are currently absent, showcasing the company's high vigilance towards risks.
- Strategic Significance for Investors: ConocoPhillips is not relying on Venezuelan oil production to boost earnings but is betting on legal recovery to strengthen its balance sheet, a strategy that could provide cash returns independent of crude price fluctuations.
See More
ConocoPhillips Rated Among Best Long-Term Low-Risk Stocks
- Target Price Increase: Roth Capital raised ConocoPhillips' price target from $105 to $112 while maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting the company's stable fourth-quarter performance and unchanged 2026 capital spending plans amid progress on cost-cutting initiatives.
- Cost Reduction Strategy: ConocoPhillips plans to cut $1 billion in capital and operating costs in 2026, a proactive measure to address profit expectations falling short of Wall Street due to declining crude prices, showcasing the company's resilience in challenging market conditions.
- Production Growth Outlook: Roth Capital anticipates modest production growth for ConocoPhillips in 2027, with total volumes expected to rise by about 2% and oil production by around 1%, indicating the company's ability to maintain production levels while controlling costs.
- Asset Sales Progress: ConocoPhillips completed $3.2 billion in asset sales in 2025 and is on track to meet its $5 billion divestment goal by the end of 2026, reflecting ongoing efforts to streamline operations and optimize its asset portfolio.
See More
ConocoPhillips Shares Surge Amid Geopolitical Events
- Stock Surge: ConocoPhillips shares rose 11.3% in January, reflecting market optimism for the oil and gas sector, particularly as geopolitical events drove oil prices from $57 to $65, indicating investor confidence in future earnings.
- Venezuela Regime Change: The U.S. special forces ousted Venezuelan President Maduro on January 2, and while Venezuela currently produces only 1% of global oil, its vast reserves position it for potential supply recovery, enhancing prospects for Conoco to reclaim $10 billion in arbitration awards.
- Iran Protests Impact: Escalating protests in Iran represent a significant challenge to the ruling regime, and as the world's ninth-largest oil producer, Iran's instability further supports rising oil prices, creating additional market opportunities for Conoco.
- Earnings Report: Although Conoco reported adjusted earnings per share of $1.02, missing analyst estimates by $0.08, the stock remained stable post-earnings due to current oil prices at $65, reflecting optimistic market expectations for future profitability despite the earnings miss.
See More
Venezuela's Political Turmoil Boosts Oil Prices
- Oil Price Surge: The ousting of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro led to a significant increase in oil prices from $57 to $65 in January, highlighting the strong impact of geopolitical events on the oil and gas market, which is expected to further drive stock prices of related companies.
- ConocoPhillips Stock Rally: ConocoPhillips shares rose 11.3% in January, despite reporting adjusted earnings per share of $1.02, which missed analyst estimates by $0.08; however, the market remains optimistic about its future potential earnings.
- Debt Recovery Prospects: ConocoPhillips stands to recover $10 billion owed by Venezuela, representing 7.4% of its current market cap, and a successful regime change could unlock more of Venezuela's untapped oil reserves, enhancing the company's financial position.
- Iranian Instability Impact: Escalating protests in Iran, the world's ninth-largest oil producer, have further influenced global oil prices, benefiting companies like ConocoPhillips as they navigate the complexities of the oil market amidst political unrest.
See More
Energy Dominates in 2026—Are the Oil Giants Facing Challenges?
Energy Sector Forecast: The energy sector is expected to experience tempered performance in 2026, with analysts predicting a global oil surplus and weaker demand following a modest growth of 8.7% in 2025.
Mixed Earnings Reports: Major oil companies are reporting mixed earnings, with Chevron beating earnings per share expectations but missing revenue forecasts, while ExxonMobil and others show strong year-to-date gains despite some misses.
Future Growth Projections: Chevron forecasts a compound annual growth rate of around 10% for cash flow from operations by 2026, while ConocoPhillips and Shell aim to reduce operating costs significantly this year.
Market Trends and Investment Opportunities: The energy sector remains favorable for investors, with recommendations for stocks like ExxonMobil and Chevron, as well as ETFs that provide exposure to top natural gas and oil producers.
See More
CONOCOPHILLIPS: UBS Increases Price Target from $120 to $130
- ConocoPhillips Price Target Increase: ConocoPhillips has raised its star price target from $120 to $130.
- Market Implications: This adjustment reflects a positive outlook for the company's performance in the market.
See More
ConocoPhillips Focuses on Debt Recovery Over Drilling in Venezuela
- Debt Recovery Priority: CEO Ryan Lance emphasized during the Q4 earnings call that ConocoPhillips' current focus is on recovering owed funds from two judgments rather than increasing production, reflecting the company's cautious approach in a politically unstable market.
- Citgo's Potential Value: Lance indicated that Washington aims to keep the Citgo refinery in U.S. hands, suggesting that Conoco could recover part of its judgment through this process, highlighting a strategic shift towards asset monetization.
- Challenges of Returning to Venezuela: Even if sanctions ease, Lance stressed that a return would require stable policies and good local relations, which are currently absent, showcasing the company's high vigilance towards risks.
- Strategic Significance for Investors: ConocoPhillips is not relying on Venezuelan oil production to boost earnings but is betting on legal recovery to strengthen its balance sheet, a strategy that could provide cash returns independent of crude price fluctuations.
See More
ConocoPhillips Rated Among Best Long-Term Low-Risk Stocks
- Target Price Increase: Roth Capital raised ConocoPhillips' price target from $105 to $112 while maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting the company's stable fourth-quarter performance and unchanged 2026 capital spending plans amid progress on cost-cutting initiatives.
- Cost Reduction Strategy: ConocoPhillips plans to cut $1 billion in capital and operating costs in 2026, a proactive measure to address profit expectations falling short of Wall Street due to declining crude prices, showcasing the company's resilience in challenging market conditions.
- Production Growth Outlook: Roth Capital anticipates modest production growth for ConocoPhillips in 2027, with total volumes expected to rise by about 2% and oil production by around 1%, indicating the company's ability to maintain production levels while controlling costs.
- Asset Sales Progress: ConocoPhillips completed $3.2 billion in asset sales in 2025 and is on track to meet its $5 billion divestment goal by the end of 2026, reflecting ongoing efforts to streamline operations and optimize its asset portfolio.
See More
