Upcoming Week for FX and Bonds: U.S. PCE Inflation Data Takes Center Stage Amid Likely Fed Rate Cut
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Aug 24 2025
0mins
Source: WSJ
U.S. Economic Indicator: The upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data for July is anticipated to influence investor expectations regarding a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month.
European Economic Surveys: Confidence surveys in Europe will provide insights into the economic impact of U.S. trade tariffs on the region.
Inflation Figures: Provisional inflation figures for August from various European countries will be released, contributing to the understanding of economic conditions.
Market Reactions: Investors are closely monitoring these indicators as they could significantly affect market dynamics and monetary policy decisions.
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Analyst Views on PM
Wall Street analysts forecast PM stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PM is 181.63 USD with a low forecast of 158.00 USD and a high forecast of 200.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 182.000
Low
158.00
Averages
181.63
High
200.00
Current: 182.000
Low
158.00
Averages
181.63
High
200.00
About PM
Philip Morris International Inc. is an international tobacco company. The Company’s product portfolio primarily consists of cigarettes and smoke-free products. Its smoke-free business (SFB) also includes wellness and healthcare products, as well as consumer accessories, such as lighters and matches. The Company’s segments include Europe Region; South and Southeast Asia, Commonwealth of Independent States, Middle East and Africa Region (SSEA, CIS & MEA); East Asia, Australia & PMI Global Travel Retail (EA, AU & PMI GTR), and Americas Region. The Company's brands include Marlboro, HEETS, IQOS, IQOS ILUMA, TEREA, VEEV and ZYN. Its IQOS smoke-free product brand portfolio includes heated tobacco and nicotine-containing vapor products. Its international cigarette brands are Chesterfield, L&M, and Philip Morris. It also owns a number of local cigarette brands, such as Dji Sam Soe and Sampoerna A in Indonesia, and Fortune and Jackpot in the Philippines.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Philip Morris Q4 Results Analysis
- Tobacco Business Growth: Philip Morris achieved over $40 billion in revenue in Q4, driving five consecutive years of volume growth, indicating the company's successful transformation as its smokeless products now account for nearly half of total sales.
- Smokeless Product Performance: The smokeless segment saw a 12.0% net revenue growth and a 12.2% gross profit increase in Q4, with three out of four regions reporting smokeless revenue exceeding 50% of total revenue, reflecting strong market demand.
- Upgraded Earnings Outlook: The company raised its 2026 EPS forecast to $8.38 to $8.53, surpassing the $8.03 consensus estimate, with expected organic net revenue growth of 5% to 7%, further solidifying its market position.
- Future Growth Targets: Philip Morris anticipates achieving annual growth targets of 6% to 8% in net revenue and 8% to 10% in operating income from 2024 to 2026, demonstrating confidence in its sustained growth potential.
See More
Philip Morris Shares Decline: The Impact of Earnings on the Tobacco Leader.
- Fourth Quarter Revenue: Philip Morris International reported revenue for the fourth quarter that was softer than expected.
- Stock Impact: The disappointing revenue results led to a decline in the company's stock ahead of the market opening.
See More
Comparison of Consumer Staples ETFs: XLP vs IYK
- Cost Comparison: State Street's XLP offers a significantly lower expense ratio of 0.08% compared to iShares' IYK at 0.38%, which means that for the same returns, XLP can provide higher net returns for long-term cost-conscious investors.
- Portfolio Composition: XLP focuses exclusively on 36 consumer staples stocks without including healthcare or basic materials, while IYK holds 54 stocks, with 85% in consumer defensive and 11% in healthcare, indicating that IYK's diversified strategy may appeal to investors seeking broader exposure.
- Returns and Risks: Over the past year, XLP delivered a return of 9.9% compared to IYK's 11.3%, and while IYK's returns are slightly higher, XLP's maximum drawdown of 16.31% indicates a higher risk profile during market volatility.
- Market Performance: XLP's top holdings include Walmart and Costco, providing a strong retail foundation, whereas IYK leans more towards product manufacturers, offering investors a defensive investment option in healthcare despite its higher fees.
See More
Coca-Cola and Philip Morris: Dividend Investment Value
- Importance of Dividends: According to S&P Global, dividends have accounted for 31% of total stock market returns since 1926, highlighting their crucial role in long-term investing, allowing investors to focus on fundamentals while ignoring stock price fluctuations.
- Coca-Cola's Stability: As a blue-chip stock, Coca-Cola continues to deliver dividends with a third-quarter revenue growth of 5% year-over-year to $12.5 billion, demonstrating its strong resilience and profitability amid economic fluctuations.
- Philip Morris' Transformation: Philip Morris has pivoted to smoke-free products, which now account for 41% of its sales across 100 global markets, significantly expanding its distribution network following the $16 billion acquisition of Swedish Match in 2022, enhancing its competitive edge.
- Dividend Yield Comparison: Coca-Cola offers a dividend yield of 2.71%, while Philip Morris boasts a yield of 3.3%, both exceeding the S&P 500 average of 1.14%, showcasing their strong capabilities in returning value to investors.
See More
PHILIP MORRIS SUBMITS DEBT SHELF APPLICATION; AMOUNT NOT REVEALED - SEC FILING
Philip Morris Files for Debt Shelf: Philip Morris International has filed a registration statement for a debt shelf, allowing the company to issue debt securities in the future.
Size Not Disclosed: The specific size of the debt offering has not been disclosed in the filing.
Purpose of Filing: The filing is part of the company's strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially raise funds for various corporate purposes.
SEC Filing: The registration statement was submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of regulatory compliance.
See More
Philip Morris International Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Tobacco Product Growth: In 2025, Philip Morris reported a 12.8% increase in smoke-free product volumes, driving an 18.7% growth in organic smoke-free gross profit, showcasing the company's strong leadership in the smoke-free sector and expected to further enhance market share.
- Strong Financial Performance: The company achieved total net revenues exceeding $40 billion, with the smoke-free business contributing nearly $17 billion, and an adjusted EPS of $7.54, which remains at the high end of guidance despite currency challenges, reflecting robust profitability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management forecasts organic net revenue growth of 5% to 7% and organic operating income growth of 7% to 9% for 2026, with a targeted leverage ratio close to 2x, demonstrating confidence in future growth prospects.
- Significant Cost Control: Since 2024, Philip Morris has realized $1.5 billion in gross cost savings, aiming for $2 billion by 2026, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency and profitability.
See More
Philip Morris Q4 Results Analysis
- Tobacco Business Growth: Philip Morris achieved over $40 billion in revenue in Q4, driving five consecutive years of volume growth, indicating the company's successful transformation as its smokeless products now account for nearly half of total sales.
- Smokeless Product Performance: The smokeless segment saw a 12.0% net revenue growth and a 12.2% gross profit increase in Q4, with three out of four regions reporting smokeless revenue exceeding 50% of total revenue, reflecting strong market demand.
- Upgraded Earnings Outlook: The company raised its 2026 EPS forecast to $8.38 to $8.53, surpassing the $8.03 consensus estimate, with expected organic net revenue growth of 5% to 7%, further solidifying its market position.
- Future Growth Targets: Philip Morris anticipates achieving annual growth targets of 6% to 8% in net revenue and 8% to 10% in operating income from 2024 to 2026, demonstrating confidence in its sustained growth potential.
See More
Philip Morris Shares Decline: The Impact of Earnings on the Tobacco Leader.
- Fourth Quarter Revenue: Philip Morris International reported revenue for the fourth quarter that was softer than expected.
- Stock Impact: The disappointing revenue results led to a decline in the company's stock ahead of the market opening.
See More
Comparison of Consumer Staples ETFs: XLP vs IYK
- Cost Comparison: State Street's XLP offers a significantly lower expense ratio of 0.08% compared to iShares' IYK at 0.38%, which means that for the same returns, XLP can provide higher net returns for long-term cost-conscious investors.
- Portfolio Composition: XLP focuses exclusively on 36 consumer staples stocks without including healthcare or basic materials, while IYK holds 54 stocks, with 85% in consumer defensive and 11% in healthcare, indicating that IYK's diversified strategy may appeal to investors seeking broader exposure.
- Returns and Risks: Over the past year, XLP delivered a return of 9.9% compared to IYK's 11.3%, and while IYK's returns are slightly higher, XLP's maximum drawdown of 16.31% indicates a higher risk profile during market volatility.
- Market Performance: XLP's top holdings include Walmart and Costco, providing a strong retail foundation, whereas IYK leans more towards product manufacturers, offering investors a defensive investment option in healthcare despite its higher fees.
See More
Coca-Cola and Philip Morris: Dividend Investment Value
- Importance of Dividends: According to S&P Global, dividends have accounted for 31% of total stock market returns since 1926, highlighting their crucial role in long-term investing, allowing investors to focus on fundamentals while ignoring stock price fluctuations.
- Coca-Cola's Stability: As a blue-chip stock, Coca-Cola continues to deliver dividends with a third-quarter revenue growth of 5% year-over-year to $12.5 billion, demonstrating its strong resilience and profitability amid economic fluctuations.
- Philip Morris' Transformation: Philip Morris has pivoted to smoke-free products, which now account for 41% of its sales across 100 global markets, significantly expanding its distribution network following the $16 billion acquisition of Swedish Match in 2022, enhancing its competitive edge.
- Dividend Yield Comparison: Coca-Cola offers a dividend yield of 2.71%, while Philip Morris boasts a yield of 3.3%, both exceeding the S&P 500 average of 1.14%, showcasing their strong capabilities in returning value to investors.
See More
PHILIP MORRIS SUBMITS DEBT SHELF APPLICATION; AMOUNT NOT REVEALED - SEC FILING
Philip Morris Files for Debt Shelf: Philip Morris International has filed a registration statement for a debt shelf, allowing the company to issue debt securities in the future.
Size Not Disclosed: The specific size of the debt offering has not been disclosed in the filing.
Purpose of Filing: The filing is part of the company's strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially raise funds for various corporate purposes.
SEC Filing: The registration statement was submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of regulatory compliance.
See More
Philip Morris International Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Tobacco Product Growth: In 2025, Philip Morris reported a 12.8% increase in smoke-free product volumes, driving an 18.7% growth in organic smoke-free gross profit, showcasing the company's strong leadership in the smoke-free sector and expected to further enhance market share.
- Strong Financial Performance: The company achieved total net revenues exceeding $40 billion, with the smoke-free business contributing nearly $17 billion, and an adjusted EPS of $7.54, which remains at the high end of guidance despite currency challenges, reflecting robust profitability.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management forecasts organic net revenue growth of 5% to 7% and organic operating income growth of 7% to 9% for 2026, with a targeted leverage ratio close to 2x, demonstrating confidence in future growth prospects.
- Significant Cost Control: Since 2024, Philip Morris has realized $1.5 billion in gross cost savings, aiming for $2 billion by 2026, indicating ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency and profitability.
See More
