PM Should I Buy
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PM is NOT a good buy right now. The stock is in a strong uptrend but looks short-term stretched (RSI_6 ~73.7, price near resistance at ~179.4 with momentum starting to cool). Options positioning is roughly neutral (put/call ratios ~1) while implied volatility is elevated (IV percentile ~75.9), suggesting traders are paying up for protection/event risk into earnings. News flow adds near-term uncertainty (Kharkiv plant strike/supply disruption risk) and the Street has been trimming targets with at least one notable downgrade (Jefferies to Hold). Congress trading over the last 90 days shows only sales and no buys (4 sells), which is a bearish tell at current levels. With no Intellectia buy signals today and the setup looking extended, the better call for an impatient buyer is to avoid initiating here (hold/stand aside rather than buy).
Trend is bullish: moving averages are stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating a sustained uptrend. MACD histogram is positive (0.955) but ‘positively contracting,’ which often signals upside momentum is slowing rather than accelerating. RSI_6 at 73.71 indicates the stock is getting overbought/extended in the short term (despite the label saying neutral). Key levels: Pivot 172.59 is the first area to defend; resistance is close overhead at R1 179.415 (then R2 183.631). With price ~176.655, upside to first resistance is limited relative to downside back to the pivot/support zone (172.6, then 165.8). Pattern-based stats also imply near-term chop (next week expectation slightly negative) despite a better 1-month outlook.
Smoke-free product momentum remains a key structural tailwind (recent coverage highlights significant growth in smoke-free sales). Upcoming QDEC 2025 earnings (2026-02-06 pre-market) could be a catalyst if PM beats and guides confidently. The broader tape is not severely risk-off today (S&P 500 -0.14%), which helps defensive/staples hold up.
Event-driven risk: Russian missiles struck PM’s Kharkiv cigarette plant, suspending operations and creating potential supply/supply-chain disruption headlines. Competitive pressure is rising (notably in pouches and heated tobacco), and this has already fed into multiple target cuts and Jefferies’ downgrade. Near-term technical risk: the stock is extended (RSI elevated) and sitting close to resistance, increasing pullback risk. Congress trading in the last 90 days shows 4 sales and 0 purchases, signaling caution from influential holders. Earnings on 2026-02-06 adds binary risk, and elevated IV suggests the market is pricing that uncertainty.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth trends were strong: revenue $10.845B (+9.42% YoY), net income $3.468B (+12.85% YoY), EPS $2.23 (+13.20% YoY), and gross margin 67.85% (+2.74% YoY). This is a high-quality growth/efficiency profile for a staples name, but the key question is whether that strength is already reflected in the current price after the run-up and whether competitive dynamics pressure forward estimates.
Recent trend is negative-to-mixed with clear price-target trimming. Jefferies (2026-01-20) downgraded to Hold from Buy and slashed PT to $180 from $220, citing limited re-rating potential in 2026 and competitive threats; they also flagged downside risk to consensus estimates. Barclays (2025-11-17) cut PT to $180 from $220 (kept Overweight) due to ZYN competitive dynamics. JPMorgan (2025-11-26) cut PT to $185 from $190 (kept Overweight). BofA (2025-12-19) nudged PT down to $185 from $186 (kept Buy). Wall Street ‘pros’ case: strong smoke-free mix shift, solid growth and margins, defensive characteristics. ‘Cons’ case: tougher competition, reduced re-rating/valuation upside, and near-term event/earnings risk—especially relevant with the stock near resistance.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
