Progressive announces Q3 EPS of $4.45, below consensus estimate of $5.05
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 15 2025
0mins
Should l Buy PGR?
- Net Premiums Written: The company reported net premiums written of $21.4 billion, an increase from $19.5 billion the previous year.
- Net Premiums Earned: Net premiums earned rose to $20.8 billion, up from $18.3 billion last year.
- Combined Ratio: The combined ratio was reported at 89.5%, slightly higher than the 89% from the previous year.
- Year-over-Year Growth: Overall, the company experienced growth in both net premiums written and earned compared to the previous year.
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Analyst Views on PGR
Wall Street analysts forecast PGR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PGR is 257.11 USD with a low forecast of 214.00 USD and a high forecast of 328.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
9 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 202.290
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
Current: 202.290
Low
214.00
Averages
257.11
High
328.00
About PGR
The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company, which has insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates. The Company’s segments include Personal Lines, Commercial Lines and Other indemnity. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products. Its special lines of products include recreational vehicles, such as motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft. Its Personal Lines products are sold through both the agency and direct channels. The Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-related general liability and commercial property insurance predominately for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry. Its reinsurance activity includes both transactions which are regulated and those that are non-regulated. It offers shopping tools and services, such as Name Your Price, Snapshot, and HomeQuote Explorer.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Progressive Reports Strong 2025 Earnings, Exceeding Expectations
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- Reform and Tech Tailwinds: Florida's tort reform has already reduced claims costs and litigation frequency while improving underwriting margins; Shanker argues that autonomous vehicles could enhance capital utilization and underwriting efficiency, particularly benefiting insurers with scale and data advantages.
- Optimistic Outlook: Shanker expects Progressive to exceed consensus again in Q1 2026, with a policy growth forecast of 3.5%, compared to the Street's 2.5% estimate, aligning with historical seasonality that typically favors stronger first-quarter growth.
- Price Forecast: The revised price target of $329 is based on a 19.2x price-to-earnings multiple applied to normalized 2028 EPS of $17.12, and while near-term stock volatility persists, the analyst believes Progressive is well-positioned to continue outperforming expectations due to strong execution and technology-driven efficiency gains.
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- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects changes in the company's market outlook and performance expectations.
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- Progressive's Profitability: Despite a 30% decline in Progressive (PGR) stock over the past year, its underwriting profitability remains strong, with net premiums of $83 billion last year and a combined ratio of 87.4%, showcasing its competitive edge.
- Dividend Return Appeal: Progressive paid a special dividend of $13.50 per share in December, yielding approximately 6.5% based on its recent closing price, providing an attractive return opportunity for long-term investors.
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Progressive Receives Overweight Rating with Price Target of $248.23
- Rating Upgrade: Progressive (PGR) has received an overweight rating, reflecting analysts' optimistic expectations for its future performance, which is likely to attract more investor attention.
- Price Target Set: The average price target is set at $248.23, indicating the potential upside for the company's stock, which may drive the price closer to this target.
- Market Reaction: The upgrade and price target increase could enhance investor confidence, thereby improving the stock's liquidity and market performance, facilitating capital inflow.
- Long-term Outlook: With the recovery of the insurance industry and increasing market demand, Progressive's overweight rating and price target suggest strong growth potential in a competitive market.
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UBS Lowers Target Price for Progressive Corp to $226 from $234
Company Update: Progressive Corp has announced a reduction in its target price for UBS shares.
New Target Price: The target price has been adjusted from $234 to $226.
See More
Progressive Reports Strong 2025 Earnings, Exceeding Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Progressive reported operating earnings per share of $18.27 for 2025, significantly surpassing the consensus estimate of $15.58, driven by robust personal auto policy growth, despite a 23% stock decline since April 2025, highlighting a disconnect between market sentiment and operational performance.
- Reform and Tech Tailwinds: Florida's tort reform has already reduced claims costs and litigation frequency while improving underwriting margins; Shanker argues that autonomous vehicles could enhance capital utilization and underwriting efficiency, particularly benefiting insurers with scale and data advantages.
- Optimistic Outlook: Shanker expects Progressive to exceed consensus again in Q1 2026, with a policy growth forecast of 3.5%, compared to the Street's 2.5% estimate, aligning with historical seasonality that typically favors stronger first-quarter growth.
- Price Forecast: The revised price target of $329 is based on a 19.2x price-to-earnings multiple applied to normalized 2028 EPS of $17.12, and while near-term stock volatility persists, the analyst believes Progressive is well-positioned to continue outperforming expectations due to strong execution and technology-driven efficiency gains.
See More
PROGRESSIVE CORP: BOFA GLOBAL RESEARCH LOWERS PRICE TARGET TO $329 FROM $334
- Price Adjustment: Progressive Corp has reduced its price objective to $329 from $334.
- Market Impact: This adjustment reflects changes in the company's market outlook and performance expectations.
See More
Investment Opportunities Amid Historical High Valuations
- Market Valuation Analysis: The Shiller price-to-earnings ratio indicates that the current market is at a historical high, prompting caution among investors, yet there are still value stocks to consider, especially in a high-valuation environment.
- Chevron's Strong Performance: Chevron (CVX) excels in the oil and gas sector, with a low break-even cost of $30 per barrel and the acquisition of the Stabroek Block in Guyana, positioning it for robust future free cash flow generation.
- Progressive's Profitability: Despite a 30% decline in Progressive (PGR) stock over the past year, its underwriting profitability remains strong, with net premiums of $83 billion last year and a combined ratio of 87.4%, showcasing its competitive edge.
- Dividend Return Appeal: Progressive paid a special dividend of $13.50 per share in December, yielding approximately 6.5% based on its recent closing price, providing an attractive return opportunity for long-term investors.
See More
Insurance Stocks Thrive Amid Market Volatility; Stability Could Be the Key.
- Insurance Stocks Performance: Insurance stocks are showing strong performance, achieving steady gains amidst market volatility.
- Sector Resilience: This group within the financial sector is demonstrating its strength and resilience compared to the broader market.
See More
Progressive Receives Overweight Rating with Price Target of $248.23
- Rating Upgrade: Progressive (PGR) has received an overweight rating, reflecting analysts' optimistic expectations for its future performance, which is likely to attract more investor attention.
- Price Target Set: The average price target is set at $248.23, indicating the potential upside for the company's stock, which may drive the price closer to this target.
- Market Reaction: The upgrade and price target increase could enhance investor confidence, thereby improving the stock's liquidity and market performance, facilitating capital inflow.
- Long-term Outlook: With the recovery of the insurance industry and increasing market demand, Progressive's overweight rating and price target suggest strong growth potential in a competitive market.
See More
UBS Lowers Target Price for Progressive Corp to $226 from $234
Company Update: Progressive Corp has announced a reduction in its target price for UBS shares.
New Target Price: The target price has been adjusted from $234 to $226.
See More
