PGR Should I Buy
-
$
0.000
0.000(0.000%)
At close0.000(0.000%)Aft-market
ET
Loading...
PGR is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. Despite strong Q4 (2025/Q4) profit growth and generally constructive options sentiment, the stock’s primary trend signal is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and Wall Street has recently cut multiple price targets while emphasizing a softening P&C cycle. With no Intellectia buy signal today and price sitting in a technical “in-between” area (near pivot 206.68 and below resistance ~213), the risk/reward for buying immediately is only average rather than compelling.
Pre-market price is 208.26 (+0.08%) with the S&P 500 down ~0.35% pre-market (mild risk-off backdrop). Trend/momentum is mixed: (1) MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.784), suggesting improving momentum; (2) RSI(6) ~48.8 is neutral (no oversold bounce signal); but (3) moving averages are bearish with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, indicating the broader trend is still down/weak versus longer-term direction. Key levels: pivot 206.676 is the near-term line in the sand; resistance levels are R1 213.073 and R2 217.025; supports are S1 200.28 and S2 196.328. At 208.26, the stock is above pivot but still below first resistance, so upside is not “confirmed” yet while downside to ~200 remains plausible if pivot fails.
Strong 2025/Q4 profitability: net income +25% YoY and EPS +25% YoY, with multiple headlines noting EPS beat.
Congress trading skewed positive in the last 90 days (6 buys vs 4 sells; higher median buy size), which is a supportive sentiment datapoint.
Options put-call ratios below 1 suggest traders are not positioned defensively.
Some bullish sell-side support remains (e.g., Barclays upgrade earlier in January; JPMorgan still Overweight; Goldman still Buy).
Sell-side tone recently deteriorated: multiple price target cuts and at least one downgrade (HSBC to Hold), reflecting expectations of deceleration and a softening P&C cycle.
Revenue/premium growth looked less clean than EPS: net premiums written rose ~7.7% but reportedly missed forecasts, implying growth headwinds even as profitability is currently strong.
Technical trend remains bearish on moving averages, raising the odds that rallies get sold until price reclaims key resistance.
CFO transition: CFO retiring (successor named). Not necessarily negative long-term, but it’s an added event risk for near-term sentiment.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue rose to $22.738B (+12.19% YoY). Net income increased to $2.951B (+25.23% YoY). EPS grew to $5.02 (+25.19% YoY). Overall: excellent earnings growth and margin/profitability strength, but the news flow highlights that premium growth/revenue components were not uniformly above expectations, which aligns with the Street’s ‘deceleration/softening cycle’ narrative.
Recent trend is mixed but net-cautious: several firms lowered price targets after Q4 and/or into 2026 outlooks (Keefe Bruyette to $225 from $252; BMO to $232 from $239; Evercore to $237 from $250; Goldman to $227 from $247; JPMorgan to $275 from $303; BofA to $328 from $338). HSBC downgraded to Hold (PT $224). A notable counterpoint was Barclays upgrading to Overweight with a $265 target. Wall Street pros: strong profitability and potential for policy-in-force growth to beat consensus. Cons: the P&C cycle is softening (competition/capital supply rising), leading to decelerating pricing/growth and potentially underappreciated margin pressure—hence widespread target trims.
