The Cheesecake Factory Q4 Earnings Analysis
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1 hour ago
0mins
Should l Buy CAKE?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Miss: The Cheesecake Factory reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.60, missing expectations by $0.39, indicating challenges in profitability that could impact investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $961.6 million, a 4.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $12.71 million, reflecting strong brand demand despite the earnings shortfall.
- Liquidity Position: As of December 30, 2025, total available liquidity stood at $582.2 million, including a cash balance of $215.7 million and $366.5 million available on its revolving credit facility, demonstrating solid financial management.
- Debt Structure: The total outstanding debt was $644.0 million, comprising $69.0 million in convertible senior notes due 2026 and $575.0 million in convertible senior notes due 2030, indicating a high debt level that may pressure future financial flexibility.
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Analyst Views on CAKE
Wall Street analysts forecast CAKE stock price to fall
10 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
4 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 62.560
Low
50.00
Averages
60.33
High
72.00
Current: 62.560
Low
50.00
Averages
60.33
High
72.00
About CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated is an experiential dining company focused on hospitality. The Company owns and operates about 352 restaurants throughout the United States and Canada under brands, including The Cheesecake Factory (215 locations), North Italia (43 locations), Flower Child (38 locations), and a collection within its Fox Restaurant Concepts (FRC) portfolio (49 locations). Internationally, 34 The Cheesecake Factory restaurants operate under licensing agreements. Its bakery division operates two facilities that produce cheesecakes and other baked products for its restaurants, international licensees, and third-party bakery customers. The Cheesecake Factory menu features about 225 items, exclusive of beverage and dessert items and including items presented on supplemental menus, such as its SkinnyLicious menu that offers items at 590 calories or less. Its menu offerings include appetizers, pizza, seafood, steaks, chicken, burgers, small plates, pastas, salads, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
The Cheesecake Factory Set to Release Q4 Earnings
- Earnings Announcement: The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 18th after market close, with consensus EPS estimated at $0.99 and revenue at $948.89 million, reflecting a 3% year-over-year growth.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, CAKE has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, indicating a solid track record of profitability.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen four upward revisions and six downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced two upward and five downward revisions, highlighting market uncertainty regarding the company's future performance.
- Focus on Long-Term Trends: Analysts emphasize that while the upcoming earnings report is important, long-term trends are crucial for determining the company's future growth potential, suggesting investors should consider its sustained growth capabilities.
See More
Multiple Companies Shine in After-Hours Trading
- DoorDash Order Growth: DoorDash reported a 32% year-over-year increase in total orders and a 38% rise in revenue for Q4, leading to a 10% stock price jump despite missing overall earnings expectations, indicating market confidence in its growth potential.
- Figma's Strong Performance: Figma's adjusted earnings of 8 cents per share and revenue of $303.8 million in Q4 surpassed analyst expectations, with a 40% year-over-year growth, resulting in a 16% stock price increase, showcasing its robust competitiveness in the design software market.
- Etsy Transaction Dynamics: Etsy's agreement to sell Depop for $1.2 billion in cash led to a nearly 16% stock price increase, while eBay's stock rose over 6%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the transaction and its potential to strengthen Etsy's market position.
- Carvana Earnings Decline: Carvana's adjusted EBITDA of $511 million fell short of the $539.2 million expected by analysts, causing a 15% drop in stock price, highlighting concerns over its profitability and market performance.
See More
The Cheesecake Factory Q4 Earnings Analysis
- Earnings Miss: The Cheesecake Factory reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.60, missing expectations by $0.39, indicating challenges in profitability that could impact investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $961.6 million, a 4.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $12.71 million, reflecting strong brand demand despite the earnings shortfall.
- Liquidity Position: As of December 30, 2025, total available liquidity stood at $582.2 million, including a cash balance of $215.7 million and $366.5 million available on its revolving credit facility, demonstrating solid financial management.
- Debt Structure: The total outstanding debt was $644.0 million, comprising $69.0 million in convertible senior notes due 2026 and $575.0 million in convertible senior notes due 2030, indicating a high debt level that may pressure future financial flexibility.
See More
The Cheesecake Factory Reports 4% Revenue Growth in Q4
- Revenue Growth: The Cheesecake Factory reported Q4 revenue of $962 million, a 4% increase year-over-year, driven by new unit openings and modest sales progression despite a 2.2% decline in comparable restaurant sales at brand locations.
- Cost Management: Food and beverage costs as a percentage of revenue fell by 70 basis points to 21.6%, while labor expenses improved by 40 basis points to 33.8% of sales, indicating effective cost control measures by the company.
- Net Income Decline: Despite revenue growth, net income fell to $28.8 million from $41.2 million a year ago, with net margin compressing to approximately 3.0% from about 4.5%, reflecting pressure on restaurant-level margins and rising costs.
- Market Reaction: Shares of The Cheesecake Factory dropped 7.2% in post-market trading, reflecting investor concerns over declining profitability and softer industry conditions.
See More
Retail Giants Earnings Season Nears Conclusion
- Earnings Calendar: This week, several retail, energy, and tech giants are set to report earnings, with investors particularly focused on Medtronic, Energy Transfer, and HIVE, while Carvana's Q4 results are due after Wednesday's close.
- Carvana Earnings Expectations: Analysts forecast Carvana to report earnings of $1.10 per share on revenue of $5.26 billion, with strong year-over-year growth in retail units and gross profit per unit, although investor concerns linger over a recent short-seller report alleging accounting irregularities.
- Walmart Earnings Focus: Walmart is expected to report earnings on Thursday, with estimates of $0.72 per share and revenue of $190.24 billion, as investors will closely monitor the growth of high-margin segments and commentary on consumer health.
- Opendoor Earnings Outlook: Opendoor is set to release its Q4 results after Thursday's close, with investors looking for updates on its turnaround plans and progress towards profitability by 2026, particularly regarding improvements in gross margins and the success of its AI-driven “capital-light” platform.
See More
GLP-1 Drug Market Set to Surge, Benefiting Lilly and Novo Nordisk
- Market Potential Surge: According to Circana's research, it is projected that by 2030, 35% of food and 37% of non-food units will come from GLP-1 households, indicating a significant increase in the drug's penetration into consumer daily life, potentially creating substantial market opportunities for related companies.
- New Drug Approval Outlook: Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron is expected to receive FDA approval in 2026, providing a more convenient treatment option that could attract more patients to continue usage, thereby driving further growth for the company in the weight-loss drug market.
- Changing Consumer Habits: GLP-1 drug users are shifting their consumption patterns, with data showing a preference for healthier, protein-rich dining options, creating new market opportunities for the restaurant industry and prompting businesses to adjust menus to cater to this trend.
- Rising Demand for Healthy Foods: As GLP-1 drugs gain popularity, consumer demand for fresh foods is increasing, with NielsenIQ data indicating faster sales growth for fresh items located around the grocery store perimeter, posing a threat to packaged food companies lacking healthy options.
See More
The Cheesecake Factory Set to Release Q4 Earnings
- Earnings Announcement: The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 18th after market close, with consensus EPS estimated at $0.99 and revenue at $948.89 million, reflecting a 3% year-over-year growth.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, CAKE has beaten EPS estimates 88% of the time and revenue estimates 50% of the time, indicating a solid track record of profitability.
- Estimate Revision Trends: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen four upward revisions and six downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced two upward and five downward revisions, highlighting market uncertainty regarding the company's future performance.
- Focus on Long-Term Trends: Analysts emphasize that while the upcoming earnings report is important, long-term trends are crucial for determining the company's future growth potential, suggesting investors should consider its sustained growth capabilities.
See More
Multiple Companies Shine in After-Hours Trading
- DoorDash Order Growth: DoorDash reported a 32% year-over-year increase in total orders and a 38% rise in revenue for Q4, leading to a 10% stock price jump despite missing overall earnings expectations, indicating market confidence in its growth potential.
- Figma's Strong Performance: Figma's adjusted earnings of 8 cents per share and revenue of $303.8 million in Q4 surpassed analyst expectations, with a 40% year-over-year growth, resulting in a 16% stock price increase, showcasing its robust competitiveness in the design software market.
- Etsy Transaction Dynamics: Etsy's agreement to sell Depop for $1.2 billion in cash led to a nearly 16% stock price increase, while eBay's stock rose over 6%, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the transaction and its potential to strengthen Etsy's market position.
- Carvana Earnings Decline: Carvana's adjusted EBITDA of $511 million fell short of the $539.2 million expected by analysts, causing a 15% drop in stock price, highlighting concerns over its profitability and market performance.
See More
The Cheesecake Factory Q4 Earnings Analysis
- Earnings Miss: The Cheesecake Factory reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.60, missing expectations by $0.39, indicating challenges in profitability that could impact investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved Q4 revenue of $961.6 million, a 4.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by $12.71 million, reflecting strong brand demand despite the earnings shortfall.
- Liquidity Position: As of December 30, 2025, total available liquidity stood at $582.2 million, including a cash balance of $215.7 million and $366.5 million available on its revolving credit facility, demonstrating solid financial management.
- Debt Structure: The total outstanding debt was $644.0 million, comprising $69.0 million in convertible senior notes due 2026 and $575.0 million in convertible senior notes due 2030, indicating a high debt level that may pressure future financial flexibility.
See More
The Cheesecake Factory Reports 4% Revenue Growth in Q4
- Revenue Growth: The Cheesecake Factory reported Q4 revenue of $962 million, a 4% increase year-over-year, driven by new unit openings and modest sales progression despite a 2.2% decline in comparable restaurant sales at brand locations.
- Cost Management: Food and beverage costs as a percentage of revenue fell by 70 basis points to 21.6%, while labor expenses improved by 40 basis points to 33.8% of sales, indicating effective cost control measures by the company.
- Net Income Decline: Despite revenue growth, net income fell to $28.8 million from $41.2 million a year ago, with net margin compressing to approximately 3.0% from about 4.5%, reflecting pressure on restaurant-level margins and rising costs.
- Market Reaction: Shares of The Cheesecake Factory dropped 7.2% in post-market trading, reflecting investor concerns over declining profitability and softer industry conditions.
See More
Retail Giants Earnings Season Nears Conclusion
- Earnings Calendar: This week, several retail, energy, and tech giants are set to report earnings, with investors particularly focused on Medtronic, Energy Transfer, and HIVE, while Carvana's Q4 results are due after Wednesday's close.
- Carvana Earnings Expectations: Analysts forecast Carvana to report earnings of $1.10 per share on revenue of $5.26 billion, with strong year-over-year growth in retail units and gross profit per unit, although investor concerns linger over a recent short-seller report alleging accounting irregularities.
- Walmart Earnings Focus: Walmart is expected to report earnings on Thursday, with estimates of $0.72 per share and revenue of $190.24 billion, as investors will closely monitor the growth of high-margin segments and commentary on consumer health.
- Opendoor Earnings Outlook: Opendoor is set to release its Q4 results after Thursday's close, with investors looking for updates on its turnaround plans and progress towards profitability by 2026, particularly regarding improvements in gross margins and the success of its AI-driven “capital-light” platform.
See More
GLP-1 Drug Market Set to Surge, Benefiting Lilly and Novo Nordisk
- Market Potential Surge: According to Circana's research, it is projected that by 2030, 35% of food and 37% of non-food units will come from GLP-1 households, indicating a significant increase in the drug's penetration into consumer daily life, potentially creating substantial market opportunities for related companies.
- New Drug Approval Outlook: Lilly's oral GLP-1 drug orforglipron is expected to receive FDA approval in 2026, providing a more convenient treatment option that could attract more patients to continue usage, thereby driving further growth for the company in the weight-loss drug market.
- Changing Consumer Habits: GLP-1 drug users are shifting their consumption patterns, with data showing a preference for healthier, protein-rich dining options, creating new market opportunities for the restaurant industry and prompting businesses to adjust menus to cater to this trend.
- Rising Demand for Healthy Foods: As GLP-1 drugs gain popularity, consumer demand for fresh foods is increasing, with NielsenIQ data indicating faster sales growth for fresh items located around the grocery store perimeter, posing a threat to packaged food companies lacking healthy options.
See More
