Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: price is extended (RSI6 ~76.8) and sitting near/above resistance, making near-term upside less attractive vs. pullback risk.
Trend is still bullish (SMA5>SMA20>SMA200), so this is more of a HOLD than a SELL.
Biggest near-term catalyst is earnings (2026-02-18 AH); with elevated IV, the market is pricing in a larger move, increasing the chance of a choppy entry.
Sentiment checks are mixed: options positioning leans bullish, but insiders are selling aggressively and Street ratings skew Neutral/Underweight.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages aligned positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), consistent with an ongoing uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0911) but contracting, implying bearish momentum is fading—however, it’s not a clean momentum buy signal.
Overbought/extension: RSI_6 at 76.8 suggests the stock is short-term stretched and prone to a pullback.
Levels: Pivot ~59.05; resistance R1 ~61.31 (already exceeded pre-market at ~61.83), next resistance R2 ~62.70. Support S1 ~56.80.
Volatility: 30D IV 44.95 vs historical vol 35.02 and IV percentile 83.27 → options are expensive and the market is pricing a meaningful move (likely into earnings).
Activity: Today’s options volume (644) is below the 5D/10D averages (868.6/980.8), suggesting no major fresh surge of conviction today.
Skewed risk setup: Elevated IV into earnings can punish long option buyers; directional stock buyers face event risk around 2026-02-18.
Overall: fundamentals are improving, but not at a pace that clearly offsets the near-term “extended price + insider selling + cautious Street” setup.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: ratings skewed cautious/neutral with limited upside implied.
2026-01-26 BofA: Neutral, PT raised slightly to $66 (modest upside vs ~61.8).
2026-01-21 Raymond James: Downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform after reaching PT; suggests shares are fairly valued unless traffic/comps improve.
2026-01-20 Morgan Stanley: Underweight, PT $50.
2026-01-07 Barclays: Underweight, PT $51.
2025-12-16 Freedom Capital: Hold, PT $56.
Wall Street pros: acknowledges brand portfolio and some underappreciated growth brands; modest PT lift from BofA.
Wall Street cons: concerns about casual dining sales/traffic and limited further multiple expansion; two notable Underweight stances (MS/Barclays).
Wall Street analysts forecast CAKE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CAKE is 59.29 USD with a low forecast of 49 USD and a high forecast of 70 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CAKE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CAKE is 59.29 USD with a low forecast of 49 USD and a high forecast of 70 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
4 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 62.820
Low
49
Averages
59.29
High
70
Current: 62.820
Low
49
Averages
59.29
High
70
BofA
Neutral
maintain
$65 -> $66
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$65 -> $66
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
maintain
Neutral
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Cheesecake Factory to $66 from $65 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm is fine-tuning estimates for 22 restaurant companies across its coverage and adjusting select price targets to reflect estimate and valuation multiple changes.
Raymond James
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
2026-01-21
Reason
Raymond James
Price Target
2026-01-21
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Raymond James downgraded Cheesecake Factory to Market Perform from Outperform. The stock is fairly valued after achieving the firm's price target, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Further multiple expansion from here could require sustained traffic improvement at Cheescake Factory and a return to positive comps at North Italia, the firm says.
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