Tesla vs U.S. EV Rivals: Who Wins the Tariff War?
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 11 2025
0mins
Should l Buy RIVN?
Source: TipRanks
Impact of Tariffs on Tesla: Trump's new tariffs are negatively affecting Tesla, leading to a halt in orders for its Model S and X in China due to potential price cuts. Meanwhile, competitors like Ford and Rivian are better positioned to withstand these tariff pressures.
Market Performance Ratings: Tesla has the lowest Smart Score rating among U.S. EV stocks at 1 out of 10, indicating weak institutional confidence, while Rivian stands out with a score of 8, suggesting strong investor sentiment and resilience against tariff impacts.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy RIVN?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on RIVN
Wall Street analysts forecast RIVN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RIVN is 17.78 USD with a low forecast of 10.00 USD and a high forecast of 25.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
7 Hold
3 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 14.800
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
Current: 14.800
Low
10.00
Averages
17.78
High
25.00
About RIVN
Rivian Automotive, Inc. is an automotive manufacturer, which is engaged in developing and building category-defining electric vehicles (EVs) and accessories, as well as software and services that address the entire lifecycle of the vehicle. The Company’s R1 platform consists of two vehicles: the R1T, a two-row five-passenger pickup truck, and the R1S, a three-row seven-passenger sport utility vehicle (SUV). In the commercial market, the Company offers a Rivian Commercial Vehicle (RCV) platform. The vehicle on this platform is the Electric Delivery Van (EDV), designed and engineered by Rivian in collaboration with Amazon. The Company also offers FleetOS, its proprietary, end-to-end centralized fleet management subscription platform. It also offers a variety of services, including vehicle repair and maintenance, financing, insurance, software subscriptions and FleetOS solutions. Its value-added services include vehicle electrical architecture and software development services, and more.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Rivian Automotive's Rise in the EV Market
- Profitability Improvement: Rivian achieved a gross profit of $24 million in Q3 2025, marking its second consecutive profitable quarter with sales reaching $1.56 billion, a 78% increase year-over-year, indicating strong growth potential in the EV market.
- Technology Innovation Showcase: At the December 2025 Autonomy & AI Day, Rivian unveiled its custom chip and new self-driving technology, which are independent of its partnership with Volkswagen, demonstrating the company's capability for independent technological advancement.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Rivian expects to deliver between 66,000 and 68,000 vehicles in 2026, and while adjusted EBITDA remains negative, the loss is narrowing to between $2 billion and $2.25 billion, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Legal Issues Resolved: Although Rivian agreed to pay $250 million to settle a lawsuit from investors, analysts remain optimistic about its future, believing that the $5.8 billion partnership with Volkswagen will provide funding support and enhance its position in the EV market.
See More
Rivian Automotive's Growth Potential Analysis
- Sales Growth Expectations: Rivian anticipates a 27% sales growth in 2026, significantly up from 8% in 2025, primarily driven by the upcoming R2 model priced at $45,000, which will attract more budget-conscious consumers and expand market share.
- Advancements in Autonomous Driving: Rivian plans to achieve full autonomous driving by 2026, supported by the upcoming production of in-house silicon chips and next-gen computers, which will provide substantial growth potential and strengthen its market position in AI.
- Profitability Improvement: With the launch of the R2 model, Rivian is expected to achieve profitability in 2026, as CEO compensation is tied to profitability, indicating a push for scale that will enhance market competitiveness and narrow the valuation gap with peers like Tesla.
- Market Value Appeal: Currently valued at only $18 billion, Rivian's stock appears highly attractive given its future sales growth and AI strategy, making it a compelling buy for investors looking to capitalize on future growth opportunities amid recent price declines.
See More
Rivian R2 SUV Undergoes Cold Weather Testing Ahead of Launch
- Cold Weather Testing: Rivian is conducting cold weather testing for its new R2 SUV in Fairbanks, Alaska, to ensure the electric vehicle performs well in sub-zero conditions ahead of its anticipated launch in the first half of this year.
- Battery Capability Validation: This cold weather testing is crucial for validating the EV's battery performance, which could help position the more affordable R2 as a competitor to Tesla's Model Y.
- Price Advantage: With a starting price near $45,000, the Rivian R2 qualifies for Canada's EV rebate, enhancing its appeal in a market characterized by prolonged sub-zero winters.
- Market Rebound: Following an eleven-day losing streak, Rivian shares are expected to trade positively for a second day, reflecting market optimism regarding the new model's potential impact.
See More
Movers: Hims & Hers, Novo Nordisk, Micron, Kroger, STMicroelectronics, Nvidia, and Others
- Stock Market Trends: Stock futures were declining on Monday as investors expressed concerns about the sustainability of a recent relief rally.
- Investor Sentiment: There is a prevailing uncertainty among investors regarding the market's ability to maintain upward momentum following last week's gains.
See More
Rivian R2 Crossover SUV Spotted Testing in Alaska
- New Model Testing: Rivian's upcoming R2 crossover SUV was spotted testing in Fairbanks, Alaska, indicating the company's commitment to assessing EV performance in cold weather, which is expected to enhance its market competitiveness.
- Battery Performance Evaluation: The testing aims to evaluate the R2's performance in sub-zero conditions, particularly the battery's behavior in low temperatures, and successfully passing this test will boost consumer confidence in Rivian's EVs.
- Autonomous Driving Technology: Rivian's self-driving technology, which incorporates a LiDAR and camera-based approach, will be featured in the R2 models, potentially driving sales growth, especially with the upcoming Autonomy+ subscription service launching in 2026.
- Stock Performance: RIVN shares surged 7.91% to $14.81 during regular trading on Friday and increased by 1.09% to $14.97 in pre-market trading on Monday, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the new model.
See More
Key Earnings Reports and Economic Outlook This Week
- DuPont Earnings Expectations: DuPont is expected to report earnings of $0.43 per share and revenue of $1.69 billion for Q4 2025, with analysts noting ongoing pressure in short-cycle businesses, while slight improvements in the automotive sector may influence investor sentiment.
- Cisco's AI Focus: Cisco anticipates earnings of $1.02 per share and revenue of $15.1 billion for Q2 FY2026, with CEO highlighting a major multi-year campus networking refresh, making AI infrastructure demand a critical growth driver.
- Importance of Employment Report: The January employment report is expected to show an addition of 80,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4%, directly impacting private consumption and U.S. GDP, making it crucial for investors to monitor.
- Consumer Price Index Insights: The January CPI is projected to increase by 2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, providing essential inflation details despite not being the Fed's preferred measure, particularly regarding persistent shelter cost inflation.
See More
Rivian Automotive's Rise in the EV Market
- Profitability Improvement: Rivian achieved a gross profit of $24 million in Q3 2025, marking its second consecutive profitable quarter with sales reaching $1.56 billion, a 78% increase year-over-year, indicating strong growth potential in the EV market.
- Technology Innovation Showcase: At the December 2025 Autonomy & AI Day, Rivian unveiled its custom chip and new self-driving technology, which are independent of its partnership with Volkswagen, demonstrating the company's capability for independent technological advancement.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: Rivian expects to deliver between 66,000 and 68,000 vehicles in 2026, and while adjusted EBITDA remains negative, the loss is narrowing to between $2 billion and $2.25 billion, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Legal Issues Resolved: Although Rivian agreed to pay $250 million to settle a lawsuit from investors, analysts remain optimistic about its future, believing that the $5.8 billion partnership with Volkswagen will provide funding support and enhance its position in the EV market.
See More
Rivian Automotive's Growth Potential Analysis
- Sales Growth Expectations: Rivian anticipates a 27% sales growth in 2026, significantly up from 8% in 2025, primarily driven by the upcoming R2 model priced at $45,000, which will attract more budget-conscious consumers and expand market share.
- Advancements in Autonomous Driving: Rivian plans to achieve full autonomous driving by 2026, supported by the upcoming production of in-house silicon chips and next-gen computers, which will provide substantial growth potential and strengthen its market position in AI.
- Profitability Improvement: With the launch of the R2 model, Rivian is expected to achieve profitability in 2026, as CEO compensation is tied to profitability, indicating a push for scale that will enhance market competitiveness and narrow the valuation gap with peers like Tesla.
- Market Value Appeal: Currently valued at only $18 billion, Rivian's stock appears highly attractive given its future sales growth and AI strategy, making it a compelling buy for investors looking to capitalize on future growth opportunities amid recent price declines.
See More
Rivian R2 SUV Undergoes Cold Weather Testing Ahead of Launch
- Cold Weather Testing: Rivian is conducting cold weather testing for its new R2 SUV in Fairbanks, Alaska, to ensure the electric vehicle performs well in sub-zero conditions ahead of its anticipated launch in the first half of this year.
- Battery Capability Validation: This cold weather testing is crucial for validating the EV's battery performance, which could help position the more affordable R2 as a competitor to Tesla's Model Y.
- Price Advantage: With a starting price near $45,000, the Rivian R2 qualifies for Canada's EV rebate, enhancing its appeal in a market characterized by prolonged sub-zero winters.
- Market Rebound: Following an eleven-day losing streak, Rivian shares are expected to trade positively for a second day, reflecting market optimism regarding the new model's potential impact.
See More
Movers: Hims & Hers, Novo Nordisk, Micron, Kroger, STMicroelectronics, Nvidia, and Others
- Stock Market Trends: Stock futures were declining on Monday as investors expressed concerns about the sustainability of a recent relief rally.
- Investor Sentiment: There is a prevailing uncertainty among investors regarding the market's ability to maintain upward momentum following last week's gains.
See More
Rivian R2 Crossover SUV Spotted Testing in Alaska
- New Model Testing: Rivian's upcoming R2 crossover SUV was spotted testing in Fairbanks, Alaska, indicating the company's commitment to assessing EV performance in cold weather, which is expected to enhance its market competitiveness.
- Battery Performance Evaluation: The testing aims to evaluate the R2's performance in sub-zero conditions, particularly the battery's behavior in low temperatures, and successfully passing this test will boost consumer confidence in Rivian's EVs.
- Autonomous Driving Technology: Rivian's self-driving technology, which incorporates a LiDAR and camera-based approach, will be featured in the R2 models, potentially driving sales growth, especially with the upcoming Autonomy+ subscription service launching in 2026.
- Stock Performance: RIVN shares surged 7.91% to $14.81 during regular trading on Friday and increased by 1.09% to $14.97 in pre-market trading on Monday, reflecting positive market sentiment towards the new model.
See More
Key Earnings Reports and Economic Outlook This Week
- DuPont Earnings Expectations: DuPont is expected to report earnings of $0.43 per share and revenue of $1.69 billion for Q4 2025, with analysts noting ongoing pressure in short-cycle businesses, while slight improvements in the automotive sector may influence investor sentiment.
- Cisco's AI Focus: Cisco anticipates earnings of $1.02 per share and revenue of $15.1 billion for Q2 FY2026, with CEO highlighting a major multi-year campus networking refresh, making AI infrastructure demand a critical growth driver.
- Importance of Employment Report: The January employment report is expected to show an addition of 80,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.4%, directly impacting private consumption and U.S. GDP, making it crucial for investors to monitor.
- Consumer Price Index Insights: The January CPI is projected to increase by 2.5% year-over-year, with core CPI rising by 2.6%, providing essential inflation details despite not being the Fed's preferred measure, particularly regarding persistent shelter cost inflation.
See More
