RIVN Should I Buy
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RIVN is not a good buy right now. The stock is deeply oversold and sitting near support (which can produce a short-term bounce), but the broader setup is still bearish/fragile: momentum remains negative, options positioning shows meaningful downside hedging, and the fundamental headline near-term is declining deliveries ahead of a key earnings/guidance event (Feb 12). If you’re impatient and want to act immediately, the risk/reward is not attractive enough to justify a fresh buy at $14.76 versus waiting for a reclaim of ~$15.93 (pivot) or a clearer post-earnings direction.
Trend/Momentum: Bearish-to-stabilizing. MACD histogram is negative (-0.345) but contracting, suggesting selling pressure may be easing rather than reversing. Overbought/Oversold: RSI(6)=9.36 is extremely oversold, increasing the odds of a reflex bounce. Levels: Price $14.76 is below the pivot (15.933) and between S1 (14.993) and S2 (14.413). This is a vulnerable zone: a bounce can occur, but a clean break below ~14.41 can accelerate downside. Upside resistance sits at ~15.93 then ~16.87. Pattern/Probabilities: Similar-pattern stats imply +1.36% next day but -1.5% next week and -3.61% next month, aligning with “oversold bounce inside a still-weak trend.”
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Q4 2024 gross profit milestone cited in news, supporting the narrative that cost/production efficiency is improving.
Strong liquidity headline (~$7B cash mentioned), reducing near-term funding stress perception.
Product-cycle optimism: R2 launch in 1H 2026 is repeatedly cited by bulls as the next major demand catalyst.
Autonomy/software strategy (Autonomy+ and vertical integration) is increasingly viewed as a potential higher-margin revenue stream over time.
Analyst tone improved since mid-Dec with multiple price target increases and several Outperform/Buy reiterations.
Demand/deliveries: Q4 deliveries down ~31% YoY, reinforcing the near-term demand softness narrative (and tax credit impacts).
Setup into earnings: Next catalyst is QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-12 (after hours); guidance risk is elevated given deliveries weakness.
Street bear case: Morgan Stanley Underweight highlights potential 2026 demand air-pocket (tech timing/feature waiting) and EV affordability/tax-credit headwinds.
Competitive EV landscape remains intense (news context shows broad EV pressure), which can cap near-term multiple expansion.
Technicals still below pivot/resistance with bearish medium-term pattern probabilities (week/month skew negative).
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $1.558B (+78.26% YoY), showing strong top-line growth. Profitability: Net income was -$1.173B (loss), improving modestly YoY (+6.64% improvement). EPS was -$0.96 (worse YoY, -11.11%), indicating losses remain heavy on a per-share basis. Margins: Gross margin reported at ~1.54% (near breakeven), but noted as down sharply YoY, implying profitability is still inconsistent and sensitive to volume/mix. Bottom line: Strong revenue growth, but the company is still in a loss-making phase and the market is focusing on the path to sustainable margins into the R2 cycle.
Recent trend: Since mid-Dec 2025, sentiment improved with several price target hikes and upgrades tied to Autonomy/AI Day and the R2 launch cycle. Bulls: Baird upgraded to Outperform (PT $25), Wedbush Outperform (PT $25), Needham Buy (PT $23) — thesis centers on R2-driven demand inflection in 2026 plus software/autonomy monetization. Neutrals: Goldman and Piper raised targets (to $18 and $20 respectively) but stayed Neutral—acknowledging strategy improvements while remaining cautious on deliveries and execution. Bears: Morgan Stanley Underweight (PT $12) remains the key skeptical voice, emphasizing 2026 demand risk and tech-timing creating a waiting period. Wall Street pros/cons view: Pros are the improving product/software roadmap and R2 catalyst; cons are near-term demand softness, delivery declines, and uncertainty on profitability/volume ramp timing.
