Surf Air Mobility Inc. (SRFM) Posts Q3 Loss but Exceeds Revenue Projections
Quarterly Performance: Surf Air Mobility Inc. reported a quarterly loss of $0.64 per share, slightly worse than the expected loss of $0.61, but an improvement from a loss of $0.94 per share a year ago. The company also posted revenues of $29.17 million, exceeding estimates by 4.30%.
Stock Performance: The company's shares have declined by approximately 43.6% since the start of the year, contrasting with a 16.4% gain in the S&P 500, raising concerns about future stock performance.
Earnings Outlook: The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.57, with revenues expected to be $28.28 million. The stock holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating it is expected to perform in line with the market.
Industry Context: The Transportation - Airline industry is currently ranked in the bottom 30% of Zacks industries, which may impact Surf Air Mobility's stock performance. Another industry player, Corporacion America Airports S.A., is expected to report significantly improved earnings in its upcoming quarter.
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- Addendum Signed: CAAP's subsidiary Ecogal has executed an addendum for the Seymour Airport concession in Ecuador, aimed at rebalancing the economic and financial equilibrium adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, ensuring sustainable airport operations.
- Concession Terms Adjusted: The agreement includes adjustments to airport charges, an extension of the concession term, and the rescheduling of investment commitments, designed to enhance financial stability and support future development of the airport.
- Sustainability Achievements: Since 2017, Seymour Airport has achieved carbon-neutral operations and recently received Level 4+ certification under the Airport Carbon Accreditation program, demonstrating CAAP's ongoing commitment to sustainability and operational excellence.
- Passenger Growth Forecast: By 2025, CAAP is expected to serve 86.7 million passengers, a 9.8% increase from 79.0 million in 2024, reflecting the company's strong recovery and growth potential in the Latin American and European markets.
- Concession Term Extension: CAAP's subsidiary Ecogal has signed an addendum extending the concession term for Seymour Airport by six years until December 31, 2032, thereby ensuring future economic equilibrium.
- Airport Charge Adjustment: The Terminal Use Charge will increase by $5.20 per passenger to $31.18, which is expected to enhance the company's revenue stream through annual adjustments.
- Investment Program Implementation: Ecogal plans to conduct a runway condition assessment in 2029, with a maximum investment of $4 million for repaving if necessary, ensuring the long-term sustainability and safety of airport facilities.
- Economic Equilibrium Mechanism: The agreement includes provisions for a biennial review of economic balance, allowing for renegotiation of terms in case of force majeure, thus maintaining the economic stability of the concession.

- Concession Extension: CAAP's subsidiary Armenia International Airports has signed an agreement with the Armenian government to extend the concession term by 35 years until 2067, ensuring long-term operational stability for the company in Armenia.
- Investment Commitment: Under the agreement, CAAP will submit a $425 million Master Plan by January 31, 2026, covering infrastructure development and operational enhancements, with completion expected by 2033, thereby enhancing the airport's long-term capacity.
- Inflation Adjustment Mechanism: The new agreement replaces the single-till framework with an inflation-based regime, allowing for tariff adjustments starting in April 2027 based on inflation indices from Armenia, the U.S., and the EU, ensuring revenue aligns with economic conditions.
- Economic Equilibrium Mechanism: The agreement introduces an economic equilibrium rebalance framework that provides compensation mechanisms for force majeure events and passenger traffic declines, allowing for tariff adjustments or concession term extensions to maintain financial balance, thereby enhancing investment security.

- Passenger Traffic Growth: In December 2025, CAAP reported an 8.5% year-on-year increase in passenger traffic, with a full-year growth of 9.8%, indicating strong performance in the aviation market recovery that is expected to drive future revenue growth.
- Domestic Market Performance: Domestic passenger traffic rose by 5.9% year-on-year, largely driven by Argentina and Brazil, reflecting the company's competitive strength and market share enhancement in the Latin American market.
- International Traffic Surge: International passenger traffic grew by 12.1% year-on-year, with all operating countries contributing positively, including double-digit growth in Argentina, Italy, and Brazil, showcasing the resilience of the company's global network.
- Argentina's Notable Contribution: Argentina accounted for over 50% of the total year-on-year traffic growth in December, with total passenger traffic increasing by 7.4%, marking an all-time annual record in 2025, highlighting the recovery potential of this market and its significance to the company's overall performance.

- Passenger Traffic Growth: In 2025, CAAP's total passenger traffic reached 86.7 million, marking a 9.8% year-on-year increase, indicating a robust recovery in both Latin American and European markets, thereby reinforcing its market leadership.
- Domestic and International Performance: Argentina's passenger traffic grew by 7.4% YoY in December, with international traffic rising by 15.9%, demonstrating the effectiveness of the company's expansion strategy in international routes and enhancing its competitiveness in the global aviation market.
- Cargo Volume Changes: Although cargo volume decreased by 4.0% YoY in 2025, Argentina and Uruguay saw increases of 3.4% and 6.7% respectively, indicating growth potential in specific markets and reflecting the company's efforts to diversify revenue sources.
- Flight Operations Improvement: In 2025, CAAP's aircraft movements increased by 4.8% YoY to 876,428, showcasing the company's success in enhancing operational efficiency and meeting market demand, further driving overall business growth.

- Price Breakthrough: Recently, shares of Corporacion America Airports SA (CAAP) reached $26.00, surpassing the analyst-set 12-month target price of $25.69, indicating increased market confidence in the company.
- Analyst Reactions: When a stock hits its target price, analysts may either downgrade their valuation or raise their target, reflecting differing views on the company's fundamentals, which could influence investor decisions.
- Target Price Distribution: Among analysts covered by Zacks, CAAP's average target price is $25.69, but there is significant variance with a low target of $21.86 and a high of $30.00, resulting in a standard deviation of $2.874, highlighting diverse market expectations.
- Investor Signal: The stock's rise above the target price provides a strong signal for investors to reassess the company, prompting them to consider whether the current valuation is justified or if it’s time to take profits.






