Stocks, dollar eye weekly rise on Trump's tariff backdown
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 25 2025
0mins
Should l Buy CMG?
Source: Reuters
Market Reactions to U.S.-China Relations: Asian stock markets are experiencing gains as investors respond positively to a perceived softening of the U.S. government's stance on China, despite ongoing tensions and no formal trade talks between the two nations.
Corporate Performance and Economic Indicators: Major companies like Alphabet have exceeded profit expectations, contributing to a rise in stock prices, while concerns remain about consumer uncertainty affecting forecasts from other corporations, indicating potential volatility ahead in the markets.
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Analyst Views on CMG
Wall Street analysts forecast CMG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CMG is 45.95 USD with a low forecast of 35.00 USD and a high forecast of 56.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
25 Analyst Rating
18 Buy
7 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 39.390
Low
35.00
Averages
45.95
High
56.00
Current: 39.390
Low
35.00
Averages
45.95
High
56.00
About CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a restaurant company. The Company develops and operates restaurants that serve a menu of burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, made using fresh ingredients. The Company operates approximately 3839 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Kuwait, and United Arab Emirates. It owns and operates all its restaurants in North America and Europe. The Company is focused in serving sourced, classically cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. Its menu includes Burrito, Burrito Bowl, Lifestyle Bowl, Quesadilla, Salad, Tacos, Kid’s Meal, Chips and Sides, and Build your Own (digital only). It also includes Raymonte’s Chicken Bowl, The Mr. Fantasy Burrito, Carne Asada, Build-Your-Own Chipotle, catering and group order. Its subsidiaries include Chipotle Mexican Grill Canada Corp., Chipotle Mexican Grill France SAS, among others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Chipotle Offers $1 Million in Free Meals Amid Demand Decline
- Sales Decline: Chipotle reported a 2.5% year-over-year decrease in comparable restaurant sales for Q4 2025, indicating a broader slowdown in the fast-food sector that may impact future revenue growth.
- Promotional Campaign: To attract customers, Chipotle is offering $1 million worth of free meals during the 2026 Super Bowl, which is expected to draw significant customer participation and enhance brand visibility.
- Changing Consumer Behavior: A YouGov survey revealed that approximately 37% of U.S. consumers are dining out less frequently, with 69% citing high costs as a primary reason, putting pressure on Chipotle's sales.
- Technological Innovation: Chipotle plans to accelerate the rollout of high-efficiency equipment to improve service speed and consistency, while also leveraging AI to enhance its loyalty rewards program, which is expected to further boost customer experience and sales potential.
See More
Chipotle Introduces High-Protein Menu to Address Sales Decline
- Flat Sales Growth Outlook: Chipotle anticipates flat same-store sales growth in 2026, indicating ongoing market challenges after a nearly 32% stock price decline, necessitating effective management strategies to restore growth.
- New Menu to Attract Customers: The introduction of a high-protein menu, featuring an 81-gram protein double bowl and a $3.50 Adobe Chicken Taco, aims to attract a new customer base using GLP-1 drugs, potentially improving foot traffic.
- Market Trend Response Strategy: With the rise of GLP-1 drug usage, Chipotle recognizes that high-income consumers are more likely to try these medications, thus the high-protein options not only cater to dietary restrictions but may also draw in more customers.
- Investor Caution Advised: While the new menu could help boost sales, the overall decline in consumer spending and the stock trading at 34 times forward earnings suggest that investors should carefully assess Chipotle's future performance.
See More
Chipotle Launches New Menu Items Targeting Health-Conscious Consumers
- New Menu Launch: Chipotle has introduced a high-protein menu featuring an 81-gram protein double bowl and a $3.50 Adobe Chicken Taco, aimed at attracting consumers using GLP-1 drugs, despite a 32% stock decline in 2025.
- Market Adaptation Strategy: Management indicated during the recent earnings call that same-store sales are expected to remain flat in 2026, reflecting the company's proactive measures to adapt in the face of declining consumer spending by introducing new products to attract diverse customer segments.
- Consumer Trend Awareness: A Kaiser Foundation poll reveals that one in eight adults is now using GLP-1 drugs, prompting Chipotle to adjust its menu to cater to broader dietary needs, even as overall consumer spending continues to decline.
- Investor Caution: While Chipotle's high-income customer base may be inclined to try GLP-1 drugs, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 34, leading analysts to advise investors to monitor the effectiveness of the new strategies rather than rushing to buy in.
See More
Chipotle Plans Continued Price Increases Targeting High-Income Customers
- High-Income User Insight: Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright revealed in a recording that 60% of core users earn over $100,000 annually, providing the company with confidence to target this demographic more effectively, potentially enhancing brand loyalty and sales.
- Earnings Beat Expectations: In its Q4 2025 report, Chipotle posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.25, exceeding the $0.24 consensus, with revenue of $2.98 billion surpassing the $2.96 billion estimate, demonstrating resilience in profitability despite operational challenges.
- Sales Decline: Despite the strong earnings report, comparable restaurant sales fell 2.5% year-over-year, primarily due to a 3.2% decrease in transactions, indicating challenges in customer traffic that could impact future growth potential.
- Market Performance Analysis: Chipotle has a market capitalization of $219.53 billion, with a 52-week high of $124.17 and a low of $55.51, while the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53.13, suggesting the stock is in a long-term consolidation phase with short-term upward momentum.
See More
Chipotle Struggles Continue in Q4 with Sales Decline
- Sales Decline: Chipotle's comparable-store sales fell by 2.5% in Q4, with transactions down 3.2%, although the average check size increased by 0.7%, indicating weak consumer demand that could hinder future revenue growth.
- Revenue and Earnings: Overall revenue rose by 4.9% to $2.98 billion, and adjusted earnings per share remained flat at $0.25, slightly above analysts' expectations of $0.24, demonstrating some resilience in profitability despite challenges.
- Margin Pressure: The restaurant-level operating margin decreased by 140 basis points to 24.5%, with Chipotle expecting continued margin pressure in 2026, reflecting a cautious approach to price hikes that may impact long-term profitability.
- Expansion Plans: Chipotle opened 334 new restaurants in 2025 and anticipates launching between 350 and 370 new locations in 2026; despite flat same-store sales forecasts, the company aims to enhance customer engagement through menu innovation and a relaunch of its rewards program to navigate an uncertain economic landscape.
See More
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.US) Officer Plans to Sell $3.45 Million in Common Stock via Form 144
Stock Sale Announcement: Curtis E. Garner plans to sell 86,100 shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.U.S) on February 6, with a total market value of approximately $3.45 million.
Reduction in Shareholding: Garner has reduced his shareholding in Chipotle by 129,540 shares since December 1, 2025, with a total value of around $4.58 million.
See More
Chipotle Offers $1 Million in Free Meals Amid Demand Decline
- Sales Decline: Chipotle reported a 2.5% year-over-year decrease in comparable restaurant sales for Q4 2025, indicating a broader slowdown in the fast-food sector that may impact future revenue growth.
- Promotional Campaign: To attract customers, Chipotle is offering $1 million worth of free meals during the 2026 Super Bowl, which is expected to draw significant customer participation and enhance brand visibility.
- Changing Consumer Behavior: A YouGov survey revealed that approximately 37% of U.S. consumers are dining out less frequently, with 69% citing high costs as a primary reason, putting pressure on Chipotle's sales.
- Technological Innovation: Chipotle plans to accelerate the rollout of high-efficiency equipment to improve service speed and consistency, while also leveraging AI to enhance its loyalty rewards program, which is expected to further boost customer experience and sales potential.
See More
Chipotle Introduces High-Protein Menu to Address Sales Decline
- Flat Sales Growth Outlook: Chipotle anticipates flat same-store sales growth in 2026, indicating ongoing market challenges after a nearly 32% stock price decline, necessitating effective management strategies to restore growth.
- New Menu to Attract Customers: The introduction of a high-protein menu, featuring an 81-gram protein double bowl and a $3.50 Adobe Chicken Taco, aims to attract a new customer base using GLP-1 drugs, potentially improving foot traffic.
- Market Trend Response Strategy: With the rise of GLP-1 drug usage, Chipotle recognizes that high-income consumers are more likely to try these medications, thus the high-protein options not only cater to dietary restrictions but may also draw in more customers.
- Investor Caution Advised: While the new menu could help boost sales, the overall decline in consumer spending and the stock trading at 34 times forward earnings suggest that investors should carefully assess Chipotle's future performance.
See More
Chipotle Launches New Menu Items Targeting Health-Conscious Consumers
- New Menu Launch: Chipotle has introduced a high-protein menu featuring an 81-gram protein double bowl and a $3.50 Adobe Chicken Taco, aimed at attracting consumers using GLP-1 drugs, despite a 32% stock decline in 2025.
- Market Adaptation Strategy: Management indicated during the recent earnings call that same-store sales are expected to remain flat in 2026, reflecting the company's proactive measures to adapt in the face of declining consumer spending by introducing new products to attract diverse customer segments.
- Consumer Trend Awareness: A Kaiser Foundation poll reveals that one in eight adults is now using GLP-1 drugs, prompting Chipotle to adjust its menu to cater to broader dietary needs, even as overall consumer spending continues to decline.
- Investor Caution: While Chipotle's high-income customer base may be inclined to try GLP-1 drugs, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 34, leading analysts to advise investors to monitor the effectiveness of the new strategies rather than rushing to buy in.
See More
Chipotle Plans Continued Price Increases Targeting High-Income Customers
- High-Income User Insight: Chipotle CEO Scott Boatwright revealed in a recording that 60% of core users earn over $100,000 annually, providing the company with confidence to target this demographic more effectively, potentially enhancing brand loyalty and sales.
- Earnings Beat Expectations: In its Q4 2025 report, Chipotle posted adjusted earnings per share of $0.25, exceeding the $0.24 consensus, with revenue of $2.98 billion surpassing the $2.96 billion estimate, demonstrating resilience in profitability despite operational challenges.
- Sales Decline: Despite the strong earnings report, comparable restaurant sales fell 2.5% year-over-year, primarily due to a 3.2% decrease in transactions, indicating challenges in customer traffic that could impact future growth potential.
- Market Performance Analysis: Chipotle has a market capitalization of $219.53 billion, with a 52-week high of $124.17 and a low of $55.51, while the current Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53.13, suggesting the stock is in a long-term consolidation phase with short-term upward momentum.
See More
Chipotle Struggles Continue in Q4 with Sales Decline
- Sales Decline: Chipotle's comparable-store sales fell by 2.5% in Q4, with transactions down 3.2%, although the average check size increased by 0.7%, indicating weak consumer demand that could hinder future revenue growth.
- Revenue and Earnings: Overall revenue rose by 4.9% to $2.98 billion, and adjusted earnings per share remained flat at $0.25, slightly above analysts' expectations of $0.24, demonstrating some resilience in profitability despite challenges.
- Margin Pressure: The restaurant-level operating margin decreased by 140 basis points to 24.5%, with Chipotle expecting continued margin pressure in 2026, reflecting a cautious approach to price hikes that may impact long-term profitability.
- Expansion Plans: Chipotle opened 334 new restaurants in 2025 and anticipates launching between 350 and 370 new locations in 2026; despite flat same-store sales forecasts, the company aims to enhance customer engagement through menu innovation and a relaunch of its rewards program to navigate an uncertain economic landscape.
See More
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.US) Officer Plans to Sell $3.45 Million in Common Stock via Form 144
Stock Sale Announcement: Curtis E. Garner plans to sell 86,100 shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG.U.S) on February 6, with a total market value of approximately $3.45 million.
Reduction in Shareholding: Garner has reduced his shareholding in Chipotle by 129,540 shares since December 1, 2025, with a total value of around $4.58 million.
See More
