Should I Buy CMG? CMG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

39.390

1 Day change

2.44%

52 Week Range

59.090

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

Should I buy Analysis is updated weekly. For real time "Should I Buy" analysis, please sign up to get free answers.

Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend is bearish (SMA200 > SMA20 > SMA5) and price is sitting near support after a sharp pre-market drop.
Near-term sentiment is cautious: options flow skews defensive (put-heavy volume) and news is dominated by traffic/comp concerns + flat 2026 outlook.
No Intellectia edge today to justify stepping in aggressively: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Immediate trend: bearish; moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), signaling sustained downside pressure.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.309 (below zero) with negative momentum still present (though contracting), suggesting downside is slowing but not reversed.
RSI(6) ~47: neutral, not an oversold “snap-back” setup.
Key levels: Pivot 39.627 is overhead (now resistance); nearest support S1 38.256 then S2 37.408. A break/hold of S1 is critical; upside hurdles at R1 40.998.
Pattern-based odds provided: modestly positive drift over 1 week/1 month, but near-term (next day) edge looks weak versus current bearish tape and catalyst pressure.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning vs flow: Open-interest P/C at 0.72 suggests more calls outstanding (not panic), but volume P/C at 1.5 shows traders are buying puts more aggressively today (near-term caution/hedging).
Volatility: 30D IV 37.33 vs historical vol 64.82; IV percentile 65.2 (elevated vs its own history), consistent with event/guidance uncertainty.
Activity: today’s option volume (86,104) is below 30D avg (66.84% of avg), but open interest is elevated vs avg (111.16%), implying positioning is already built and today’s flow is more defensive than expansive.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Q4 revenue beat: $2.98B reported, ahead of expectations.
- Some analysts think guidance may be “beatable” (low bar) and see levers improving through 2026 (product/marketing initiatives).
- Several major firms still maintain Buy/Overweight stances despite target trims (underlying longer-term confidence remains).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Core headline driver: declining traffic for the 4th straight quarter; Q4 comps down ~2.5% and 2026 same-store sales guided about flat.
- Margin risk: company expects to underprice inflation; multiple analysts flag near-term flow-through / margin deleverage concerns.
- Price action catalyst: sharp pre-market drawdown (~-3.7%) following guidance/news suggests near-term sellers are in control.
- No supportive “smart money” tailwind flagged: hedge funds and insiders noted as neutral; no recent Congress trading data available.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: $2.983B, +4.86% YoY (growth intact).
Net income: $330.9M, -0.25% YoY (flat-to-down profitability).
EPS: $0.25, +4.17% YoY (modest improvement).
Gross margin: 25.76%, down -4.42% YoY (margin compression aligns with 2026 margin/flow-through concerns).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: broad price-target reductions post-earnings/guidance (Barclays 44→40; Wells 50→45; Stifel 50→45; Piper 47→44; BofA 55→53), with one notable increase (Citi 48→49).
Ratings mix: still mostly positive (multiple Buy/Overweight/Outperform), with at least one more cautious stance maintained (Barclays Equal Weight) and an external downgrade (BWG to Mixed).
Wall Street “pros” view (bull case): strong brand, marketing/new product catalysts, and a conservative guide could be beatable.
Wall Street “cons” view (bear case): traffic softness persists, 2026 comps outlook is muted, and intentional pricing below inflation may pressure margins and earnings growth near term.

25 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CMG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CMG is 45.95 USD with a low forecast of 35 USD and a high forecast of 56 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

18 Buy

7 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 38.450

Low

Averages

45.95

High

Current: 38.450

Low

Averages

45.95

High

Guggenheim

Neutral

downgrade

$37 -> $36

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

Reason

Guggenheim

Price Target

$37 -> $36

AI Analysis

2026-02-05

New

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

Guggenheim lowered the firm's price target on Chipotle to $36 from $37 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Management laid out what it expects to be a conservative flat same-store sales growth guidance for 2026 and provided a framework for margin reinvestment, notes the analyst, who thinks the conservative guidance is "probably an important move," but also notes that the stock's valuation is not yet reflecting flat SSS this year.

Mizuho

Nick Setyan

Neutral

downgrade

$38 -> $37

2026-02-04

New

Reason

Mizuho

Nick Setyan

Price Target

$38 -> $37

2026-02-04

New

downgrade

Neutral

Reason

Mizuho analyst Nick Setyan lowered the firm's price target on Chipotle to $37 from $38 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The company reported solid Q4 results but its guidance disappointed, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm reduced estimates and remains on the sidelines.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for CMG

Unlock Now

CMG Should I Buy

CMG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch