Rithm Capital Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 5d ago
0mins
Should l Buy RITM?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Beat: Rithm Capital reported a Q4 EAD of $0.74, surpassing expectations by $0.16, indicating strong profitability despite revenue challenges.
- Significant Revenue Decline: The company’s revenue of $1.29 billion represents a 38.6% year-over-year decline, yet it exceeded forecasts by $50 million, showcasing resilience amid market pressures.
- Stable Book Value: With a book value per common share of $12.66, Rithm Capital demonstrates asset stability, providing a relatively secure investment foundation despite market fluctuations.
- Dividend Appeal: The 8.75% fixed-rate reset preferred IPO from Rithm Capital has garnered investor interest, highlighting the company's ongoing ability to deliver attractive dividends and strengthening its competitive position in the mREIT sector.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy RITM?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on RITM
Wall Street analysts forecast RITM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RITM is 14.92 USD with a low forecast of 14.00 USD and a high forecast of 16.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
6 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 10.740
Low
14.00
Averages
14.92
High
16.00
Current: 10.740
Low
14.00
Averages
14.92
High
16.00
About RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. is a global asset manager focused on real estate, credit and financial services. The Company makes direct investments and operates several wholly-owned operating businesses. Its segments include Origination and Servicing, Investment Portfolio, Residential Transitional Lending and Asset Management. The Company's businesses include Sculptor Capital Management, Inc., an alternative asset manager, as well as Newrez LLC and Genesis Capital LLC, mortgage origination and servicing platforms. Sculptor Capital Management, Inc. provides asset management services and investment products across credit, real estate and multi-strategy platforms through commingled funds, separate accounts and other alternative investment vehicles. Genesis Capital LLC specializes in originating and managing a portfolio of primarily short-term business purpose mortgage loans to fund single-family and multi-family real estate developers with construction, renovation and bridge loans.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Rithm Capital Reports Record Q4 2025 Earnings and Strategic Growth
- Significant Earnings Growth: Rithm Capital reported earnings available for distribution of $2.35 per diluted share for 2025, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase, indicating strong performance in asset management and real estate that is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Acquisition-Driven Expansion: The acquisition of Paramount has transformed Rithm Capital's position in the commercial real estate sector, making Paramount the fourth largest office owner in New York City, with a purchase price at a 40% discount to pre-COVID values, enhancing market competitiveness.
- New Business Line Development: The Genesis business originated $4.8 billion in 2025, with earnings up 250%, while NewRez's non-agency originations grew by 147% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's ongoing growth potential in high-demand lending sectors.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management forecasts a revenue increase of approximately 10% for NewRez in 2026 and emphasizes a cautious strategy in technology investments and capital allocation to ensure sustainable long-term growth.
See More
KBRA Assigns Preliminary Ratings to NRMLT 2026-NQM2
- Transaction Size: KBRA has assigned preliminary ratings to NRMLT 2026-NQM2, a $508 million non-prime RMBS transaction sponsored by Rithm Capital Corp., indicating increased activity in the non-prime RMBS market that may attract more investor interest.
- Mortgage Pool Characteristics: The transaction is backed by a pool of 882 residential mortgages with a weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) of 72.4%, reflecting relatively high credit quality among borrowers, which could mitigate investment risks.
- Credit Score Analysis: Borrowers in the pool possess a weighted average original credit score of 758, indicating strong overall creditworthiness, which provides confidence to investors and may facilitate the successful issuance of the transaction.
- Rating Methodology: KBRA's rating approach incorporates loan-level analysis through its Residential Asset Loss Model (REALM), alongside third-party due diligence results and cash flow modeling, ensuring accuracy and transparency in ratings, thereby enhancing market trust in the transaction.
See More
Rithm Capital Reports Strong Q4 Earnings, Stock Rises 3.4%
- Earnings Beat: Rithm Capital reported Q4 EPS of $0.74, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.58 and rising from $0.54 in Q3, indicating strengthened profitability and operational momentum.
- Revenue Growth: Q4 revenue reached $1.29 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.24 billion and increasing from $1.11 billion in the prior quarter, reflecting positive contributions from recent acquisitions of Crestline Management and Paramount Group.
- Asset Management Expansion: As of December 31, 2025, Sculptor Capital's assets under management grew to $38 billion, up from $37 billion as of September 30, 2025, showcasing the firm's ongoing growth and appeal in the asset management sector.
- Rising Expenses: Despite revenue growth, Rithm Capital's expenses increased to $1.17 billion from $938.9 million in Q3, indicating cost pressures associated with business expansion, which may impact future profitability.
See More
Rithm Capital Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Rithm Capital reported a Q4 EAD of $0.74, surpassing expectations by $0.16, indicating strong profitability despite revenue challenges.
- Significant Revenue Decline: The company’s revenue of $1.29 billion represents a 38.6% year-over-year decline, yet it exceeded forecasts by $50 million, showcasing resilience amid market pressures.
- Stable Book Value: With a book value per common share of $12.66, Rithm Capital demonstrates asset stability, providing a relatively secure investment foundation despite market fluctuations.
- Dividend Appeal: The 8.75% fixed-rate reset preferred IPO from Rithm Capital has garnered investor interest, highlighting the company's ongoing ability to deliver attractive dividends and strengthening its competitive position in the mREIT sector.
See More
Rithm Capital Reports Strong 2025 Financial Performance
- Annual Performance Review: Rithm Capital achieved a net income of $567.2 million in 2025, reflecting a 32.5% increase from 2024, showcasing the company's sustained growth potential across its diversified asset management platform, thereby enhancing its market competitiveness.
- Earnings Per Share Performance: The diluted earnings per share for 2025 was $1.04, down from $1.67 in 2024, yet the earnings available for distribution reached $2.35 per share, demonstrating the company's strong capacity for profit distribution and further solidifying shareholder confidence.
- Asset Management Scale Expansion: By the end of 2025, Rithm Capital's investable assets exceeded $100 billion, bolstered by the acquisitions of Crestline and Paramount Group, which further strengthened its position in the alternative asset management sector, indicating future growth opportunities.
- Strategic Investment Layout: The company's strategic investments across asset management, Newrez, and Genesis provide a solid foundation for growth in 2026, with expectations to leverage its unique market advantages to capture more strategic opportunities for clients and shareholders.
See More
Rithm Capital Set to Announce Q4 Earnings Results
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Rithm Capital (RITM) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 3rd before market open, with investor focus on key metrics such as asset management revenues, mortgage servicing rights, and interest income, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.58, reflecting a 3.3% year-over-year decline.
- Revenue Expectation Changes: The consensus revenue estimate for RITM stands at $1.24 billion, indicating a significant 41.0% year-over-year drop, while the past three months have seen three upward revisions in EPS and revenue estimates, suggesting cautious optimism about the company's future performance.
- Market Performance Analysis: Ahead of the earnings release, RITM's stock traded 1.28% lower at $10.80 during Monday's session, and currently trades approximately 6% below its 200-day simple moving average, indicating market concerns regarding its short-term performance.
- Insider Trading Dynamics: Over the past three months, RITM insiders have been net buyers, recording three open market purchases against two sell transactions, reflecting management's confidence in the company's future prospects.
See More
Rithm Capital Reports Record Q4 2025 Earnings and Strategic Growth
- Significant Earnings Growth: Rithm Capital reported earnings available for distribution of $2.35 per diluted share for 2025, reflecting a 12% year-over-year increase, indicating strong performance in asset management and real estate that is likely to attract more investor interest.
- Acquisition-Driven Expansion: The acquisition of Paramount has transformed Rithm Capital's position in the commercial real estate sector, making Paramount the fourth largest office owner in New York City, with a purchase price at a 40% discount to pre-COVID values, enhancing market competitiveness.
- New Business Line Development: The Genesis business originated $4.8 billion in 2025, with earnings up 250%, while NewRez's non-agency originations grew by 147% year-over-year, demonstrating the company's ongoing growth potential in high-demand lending sectors.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Management forecasts a revenue increase of approximately 10% for NewRez in 2026 and emphasizes a cautious strategy in technology investments and capital allocation to ensure sustainable long-term growth.
See More
KBRA Assigns Preliminary Ratings to NRMLT 2026-NQM2
- Transaction Size: KBRA has assigned preliminary ratings to NRMLT 2026-NQM2, a $508 million non-prime RMBS transaction sponsored by Rithm Capital Corp., indicating increased activity in the non-prime RMBS market that may attract more investor interest.
- Mortgage Pool Characteristics: The transaction is backed by a pool of 882 residential mortgages with a weighted average loan-to-value (LTV) of 72.4%, reflecting relatively high credit quality among borrowers, which could mitigate investment risks.
- Credit Score Analysis: Borrowers in the pool possess a weighted average original credit score of 758, indicating strong overall creditworthiness, which provides confidence to investors and may facilitate the successful issuance of the transaction.
- Rating Methodology: KBRA's rating approach incorporates loan-level analysis through its Residential Asset Loss Model (REALM), alongside third-party due diligence results and cash flow modeling, ensuring accuracy and transparency in ratings, thereby enhancing market trust in the transaction.
See More
Rithm Capital Reports Strong Q4 Earnings, Stock Rises 3.4%
- Earnings Beat: Rithm Capital reported Q4 EPS of $0.74, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.58 and rising from $0.54 in Q3, indicating strengthened profitability and operational momentum.
- Revenue Growth: Q4 revenue reached $1.29 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.24 billion and increasing from $1.11 billion in the prior quarter, reflecting positive contributions from recent acquisitions of Crestline Management and Paramount Group.
- Asset Management Expansion: As of December 31, 2025, Sculptor Capital's assets under management grew to $38 billion, up from $37 billion as of September 30, 2025, showcasing the firm's ongoing growth and appeal in the asset management sector.
- Rising Expenses: Despite revenue growth, Rithm Capital's expenses increased to $1.17 billion from $938.9 million in Q3, indicating cost pressures associated with business expansion, which may impact future profitability.
See More
Rithm Capital Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Rithm Capital reported a Q4 EAD of $0.74, surpassing expectations by $0.16, indicating strong profitability despite revenue challenges.
- Significant Revenue Decline: The company’s revenue of $1.29 billion represents a 38.6% year-over-year decline, yet it exceeded forecasts by $50 million, showcasing resilience amid market pressures.
- Stable Book Value: With a book value per common share of $12.66, Rithm Capital demonstrates asset stability, providing a relatively secure investment foundation despite market fluctuations.
- Dividend Appeal: The 8.75% fixed-rate reset preferred IPO from Rithm Capital has garnered investor interest, highlighting the company's ongoing ability to deliver attractive dividends and strengthening its competitive position in the mREIT sector.
See More
Rithm Capital Reports Strong 2025 Financial Performance
- Annual Performance Review: Rithm Capital achieved a net income of $567.2 million in 2025, reflecting a 32.5% increase from 2024, showcasing the company's sustained growth potential across its diversified asset management platform, thereby enhancing its market competitiveness.
- Earnings Per Share Performance: The diluted earnings per share for 2025 was $1.04, down from $1.67 in 2024, yet the earnings available for distribution reached $2.35 per share, demonstrating the company's strong capacity for profit distribution and further solidifying shareholder confidence.
- Asset Management Scale Expansion: By the end of 2025, Rithm Capital's investable assets exceeded $100 billion, bolstered by the acquisitions of Crestline and Paramount Group, which further strengthened its position in the alternative asset management sector, indicating future growth opportunities.
- Strategic Investment Layout: The company's strategic investments across asset management, Newrez, and Genesis provide a solid foundation for growth in 2026, with expectations to leverage its unique market advantages to capture more strategic opportunities for clients and shareholders.
See More
Rithm Capital Set to Announce Q4 Earnings Results
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Rithm Capital (RITM) is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 3rd before market open, with investor focus on key metrics such as asset management revenues, mortgage servicing rights, and interest income, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.58, reflecting a 3.3% year-over-year decline.
- Revenue Expectation Changes: The consensus revenue estimate for RITM stands at $1.24 billion, indicating a significant 41.0% year-over-year drop, while the past three months have seen three upward revisions in EPS and revenue estimates, suggesting cautious optimism about the company's future performance.
- Market Performance Analysis: Ahead of the earnings release, RITM's stock traded 1.28% lower at $10.80 during Monday's session, and currently trades approximately 6% below its 200-day simple moving average, indicating market concerns regarding its short-term performance.
- Insider Trading Dynamics: Over the past three months, RITM insiders have been net buyers, recording three open market purchases against two sell transactions, reflecting management's confidence in the company's future prospects.
See More
