RITM Should I Buy
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$
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Buy now. RITM just sold off hard (-8.77% to $10.875) into a key support zone (S2 ~$10.836) while fundamentals (Q3 growth) and dividend visibility remain supportive. The tape is weak short-term (bearish MACD, heavy down day, put-leaning options volume), but the stock is oversold and sitting at a technically attractive level for an impatient, near-term rebound attempt—plus earnings on 2026-02-03 is a clear catalyst that can quickly re-rate the shares if results/guide come in solid. Upside is reinforced by recent Street Buy/Outperform initiations with targets well above the current price.
Price/Trend: RITM is in a sharp short-term down-move (today -8.77%) and is trading below the pivot (11.603) and below S1 (11.129), pressing the deeper support area near S2 (10.836). Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0248) and expanding lower, confirming bearish momentum into this drop. RSI: RSI(6) ~24.8 indicates oversold conditions (bounce-prone) rather than strength. Moving averages: The structure reported is bullish (SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA200), suggesting the broader trend had been up, but today’s selloff is a notable trend break attempt; a reflex rally is more likely from here than chasing strength. Levels: Immediate support 10.84–10.88; reclaiming 11.13 is the first improvement signal, then 11.60 pivot. Resistance targets on a rebound: 12.08 (R1) and 12.37 (R2). Pattern-based forward drift: Similar pattern stats imply modest edge for a short bounce (next day +0.65% probability scenario) but weaker next-week expectancy (-0.74%), favoring a quick rebound trade rather than a slow grind.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Upcoming earnings catalyst: Q4/FY2025 results on 2026-02-03 pre-market with conference call at 8:00am ET (event-driven re-pricing potential). Dividend visibility: Company disclosed 2025 common dividends ~ $1.00/share annualized (~$0.25 quarterly), supportive for income-focused demand. Analyst support: Recent bullish coverage actions (UBS Buy $16; other related coverage noted) imply perceived undervaluation after corporate actions/acquisitions and earnings potential in asset management.
Near-term technical damage: Large down day and bearish/expanding negative MACD suggests downside pressure can persist if support breaks. Options tone today: Put volume exceeds call volume (put-call vol 1.12), reflecting defensive positioning. Flows: Hedge funds are selling, with selling amount up 284.34% over the last quarter (institutional headwind). Event risk directionality: Earnings on 2026-02-03 can move the stock sharply; the market is currently risk-off (S&P 500 -0.51%) which can amplify reactions.
Latest reported quarter (2025/Q3): Strong acceleration—Revenue $1.148B (+15.87% YoY), Net Income $193.7M (+99.60% YoY), EPS $0.35 (+75.00% YoY), Gross Margin 64.94% (+33.81% YoY). This is a clear positive growth trend into the upcoming Q4 print and supports the bull case that the selloff is more technical/positioning-driven than fundamentals-driven.
Recent trend: Net positive. UBS (2026-01-08) resumed at Buy with a $16 target after the Paramount Group acquisition, citing improved asset gathering and earnings potential in asset management. Additional recent initiations tied to the broader Rithm ecosystem have been constructive (Buy/Outperform), indicating improving Street engagement post-deal activity. Wall Street pros: (1) Targets imply meaningful upside from ~$10.88; (2) Strategy shift/acquisitions seen as earnings-accretive; (3) Dividend profile supports total return. Cons: (1) Mortgage/credit-sensitive model can face sentiment-driven drawdowns; (2) Current tape shows heavy selling and hedge funds reducing exposure.
