Restaurant Stocks Struggle in 2025 Amid Consumer Shifts
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 6d ago
0mins
Should l Buy TXRH?
Source: Fool
- Overall Industry Decline: In 2025, restaurant stocks fell approximately 0.7%, significantly trailing the S&P 500's 16% gain, indicating severe challenges within the sector that investors need to carefully assess for future prospects.
- Individual Stock Volatility: Sweetgreen's stock plummeted by 80%, Cava Group dropped 50%, and Chipotle Mexican Grill fell 30%, reflecting a lack of confidence in the restaurant industry that could impact investor decisions moving forward.
- Shifts in Consumer Behavior: Although industry sales are projected to grow by 4% to $1.5 trillion in 2025, declining guest traffic puts pressure on many operators, as consumers become more price-sensitive, intensifying competition among quick-service and casual dining sectors.
- Profitability Metrics: Chipotle maintains a restaurant-level operating margin around 24.5%, showcasing its profitability amid rising costs, while Texas Roadhouse achieved approximately 5% same-store sales growth in Q3, demonstrating resilience and competitiveness in the market.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy TXRH?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on TXRH
Wall Street analysts forecast TXRH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TXRH is 190.04 USD with a low forecast of 155.00 USD and a high forecast of 228.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 185.960
Low
155.00
Averages
190.04
High
228.00
Current: 185.960
Low
155.00
Averages
190.04
High
228.00
About TXRH
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a restaurant company operating predominantly in the casual dining segment. The Company maintains three restaurant concepts operating as Texas Roadhouse, Bubba’s 33, and Jaggers. Texas Roadhouse is a full-service, casual dining restaurant concept offering an assortment of specially seasoned and aged steaks hand-cut daily on the premises and cooked to order over open grills. Bubba’s 33 is a full-service, casual dining restaurant concept featuring scratch-made food for all with a little rock 'n' roll, ice-cold beer, and signature cocktails. Its menu features burgers, pizza, wings, sandwiches and others. Its Jaggers is a fast-casual restaurant concept offering burgers, hand-breaded chicken sandwiches and chicken tenders, made-to-order fresh salads, and hand-spun milkshakes. Jaggers offer drive-thru, carry-out, and dine-in service options. It operates approximately 780 restaurants system-wide in 49 states, one United States territory, and 10 foreign countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Tech Sector Rebound Fails to Offset Weekly Losses
- Nasdaq Rebound: The Nasdaq gained over 2% on Friday, yet still posted a 1.8% decline for the week, indicating ongoing investor concerns about tech stocks and the need to monitor future market trends.
- Dow Hits All-Time High: The Dow surged more than 1,200 points on Friday, closing at 50,115 with a weekly gain of 2.5%, reflecting a shift of funds from growth to value stocks, which may influence future investment strategies.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Alphabet announced that its capital expenditures for 2026 could exceed double the previous year, and despite a 0.5% drop in shares on Thursday, market confidence in its AI investments remains strong, signaling expectations for future growth.
- Software Stocks Crushed: Software stocks faced significant declines due to fears of AI encroaching on traditional SaaS companies, leading to pressure on the entire tech sector, prompting investors to remain vigilant about potential risks and opportunities within the industry.
See More
Jim Cramer Reduces Texas Roadhouse Stake
- Share Reduction: Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust sold 150 shares of Texas Roadhouse, reducing its holdings to 400 shares and decreasing its weighting from 2.5% to 1.85%, indicating a cautious stance on the restaurant chain.
- Sale Context: This marks the second sale of Texas Roadhouse in 2026, following a previous sale of 50 shares at around $187 each on January 12, reflecting a portfolio adjustment despite no slowdown in the company's business.
- Earnings Expectations: Texas Roadhouse is expected to report earnings on February 19, with projections of mid-single-digit same-store sales growth, highlighting consumer focus on value dining, although beef cost inflation poses a risk.
- Market Dynamics: Tyson Foods anticipates tight cattle supplies through 2026 and 2027, which could negatively impact Texas Roadhouse's earnings outlook, although increased beef imports may help alleviate some price pressures.
See More
Restaurant Stocks Struggle in 2025 Amid Consumer Shifts
- Overall Industry Decline: In 2025, restaurant stocks fell approximately 0.7%, significantly trailing the S&P 500's 16% gain, indicating severe challenges within the sector that investors need to carefully assess for future prospects.
- Individual Stock Volatility: Sweetgreen's stock plummeted by 80%, Cava Group dropped 50%, and Chipotle Mexican Grill fell 30%, reflecting a lack of confidence in the restaurant industry that could impact investor decisions moving forward.
- Shifts in Consumer Behavior: Although industry sales are projected to grow by 4% to $1.5 trillion in 2025, declining guest traffic puts pressure on many operators, as consumers become more price-sensitive, intensifying competition among quick-service and casual dining sectors.
- Profitability Metrics: Chipotle maintains a restaurant-level operating margin around 24.5%, showcasing its profitability amid rising costs, while Texas Roadhouse achieved approximately 5% same-store sales growth in Q3, demonstrating resilience and competitiveness in the market.
See More
Texas Roadhouse to Release Q4 2025 Financial Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: Texas Roadhouse announced it will release its Q4 2025 financial results on February 19, 2026, after market close, reflecting the company's commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Conference Call Details: Following the earnings release, Texas Roadhouse will hold a conference call at 5:00 PM ET, providing a live webcast to enhance investor engagement and timely communication of company performance.
- Global Business Expansion: Since its founding in 1993, Texas Roadhouse has grown to over 810 restaurants across 49 states, one U.S. territory, and ten foreign countries, showcasing its strong growth potential in the casual dining sector.
- Investor Relations Support: The company offers multiple access options for investors to join the conference call, including dedicated and international dialing, ensuring global investors can easily obtain information and participate in discussions.
See More
U.S. Beef Prices Surge as Inventories Hit Decades Low
- Inventory Constraints: U.S. beef inventories have plummeted to their lowest levels in decades, causing beef prices to surge sharply, despite resilient consumer demand for steaks and burgers, highlighting a significant supply-demand imbalance in the market.
- Price Forecasts: Evercore ISI projects that hamburger prices will rise about 15% in the first half of 2026, while steak prices are expected to increase by 5% to 15% depending on the cut, which will impose ongoing cost pressures on consumers and the restaurant industry.
- Industry Impact: Texas Roadhouse anticipates facing nearly 150 basis points of food cost deleverage in 2026, as approximately 50% of its commodity basket consists of beef, with key steak cuts like sirloin, ribeye, and filet expected to experience mid- to high-single- to double-digit inflation.
- Market Outlook: Analysts suggest that while beef inflation may finally end by late 2026, the high beef prices in the short term will continue to impact the profitability of several restaurant companies, particularly those unable to fully pass on costs to consumers.
See More
Nike Shows Improvement Under New CEO Elliott Hill, 2026 Performance Outlook Positive
- Nike Market Recovery: Under the leadership of new CEO Elliott Hill, Nike has shown significant improvement in the U.S. market, with expectations for further performance enhancement in 2026, particularly in the recovering Chinese market.
- Procter & Gamble Earnings Cleanup: Procter & Gamble's quarterly earnings report was weak but management indicated that the worst is behind them, setting the stage for improved performance in 2026, especially under new CEO Shailesh Jejurikar.
- Starbucks Sales Rebound: With China stabilizing and improving sales trends in North America, Starbucks is expected to provide positive updates during its upcoming Investor Day, and despite being overbought, it remains a solid position in the portfolio.
- Texas Roadhouse Optimistic Outlook: Despite challenges from rising beef prices, Jim Cramer forecasts a decline in beef prices, maintaining a positive outlook on Texas Roadhouse and not planning to take profits on the stock again.
See More
Tech Sector Rebound Fails to Offset Weekly Losses
- Nasdaq Rebound: The Nasdaq gained over 2% on Friday, yet still posted a 1.8% decline for the week, indicating ongoing investor concerns about tech stocks and the need to monitor future market trends.
- Dow Hits All-Time High: The Dow surged more than 1,200 points on Friday, closing at 50,115 with a weekly gain of 2.5%, reflecting a shift of funds from growth to value stocks, which may influence future investment strategies.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Alphabet announced that its capital expenditures for 2026 could exceed double the previous year, and despite a 0.5% drop in shares on Thursday, market confidence in its AI investments remains strong, signaling expectations for future growth.
- Software Stocks Crushed: Software stocks faced significant declines due to fears of AI encroaching on traditional SaaS companies, leading to pressure on the entire tech sector, prompting investors to remain vigilant about potential risks and opportunities within the industry.
See More
Jim Cramer Reduces Texas Roadhouse Stake
- Share Reduction: Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust sold 150 shares of Texas Roadhouse, reducing its holdings to 400 shares and decreasing its weighting from 2.5% to 1.85%, indicating a cautious stance on the restaurant chain.
- Sale Context: This marks the second sale of Texas Roadhouse in 2026, following a previous sale of 50 shares at around $187 each on January 12, reflecting a portfolio adjustment despite no slowdown in the company's business.
- Earnings Expectations: Texas Roadhouse is expected to report earnings on February 19, with projections of mid-single-digit same-store sales growth, highlighting consumer focus on value dining, although beef cost inflation poses a risk.
- Market Dynamics: Tyson Foods anticipates tight cattle supplies through 2026 and 2027, which could negatively impact Texas Roadhouse's earnings outlook, although increased beef imports may help alleviate some price pressures.
See More
Restaurant Stocks Struggle in 2025 Amid Consumer Shifts
- Overall Industry Decline: In 2025, restaurant stocks fell approximately 0.7%, significantly trailing the S&P 500's 16% gain, indicating severe challenges within the sector that investors need to carefully assess for future prospects.
- Individual Stock Volatility: Sweetgreen's stock plummeted by 80%, Cava Group dropped 50%, and Chipotle Mexican Grill fell 30%, reflecting a lack of confidence in the restaurant industry that could impact investor decisions moving forward.
- Shifts in Consumer Behavior: Although industry sales are projected to grow by 4% to $1.5 trillion in 2025, declining guest traffic puts pressure on many operators, as consumers become more price-sensitive, intensifying competition among quick-service and casual dining sectors.
- Profitability Metrics: Chipotle maintains a restaurant-level operating margin around 24.5%, showcasing its profitability amid rising costs, while Texas Roadhouse achieved approximately 5% same-store sales growth in Q3, demonstrating resilience and competitiveness in the market.
See More
Texas Roadhouse to Release Q4 2025 Financial Results
- Earnings Release Schedule: Texas Roadhouse announced it will release its Q4 2025 financial results on February 19, 2026, after market close, reflecting the company's commitment to transparency and investor communication.
- Conference Call Details: Following the earnings release, Texas Roadhouse will hold a conference call at 5:00 PM ET, providing a live webcast to enhance investor engagement and timely communication of company performance.
- Global Business Expansion: Since its founding in 1993, Texas Roadhouse has grown to over 810 restaurants across 49 states, one U.S. territory, and ten foreign countries, showcasing its strong growth potential in the casual dining sector.
- Investor Relations Support: The company offers multiple access options for investors to join the conference call, including dedicated and international dialing, ensuring global investors can easily obtain information and participate in discussions.
See More
U.S. Beef Prices Surge as Inventories Hit Decades Low
- Inventory Constraints: U.S. beef inventories have plummeted to their lowest levels in decades, causing beef prices to surge sharply, despite resilient consumer demand for steaks and burgers, highlighting a significant supply-demand imbalance in the market.
- Price Forecasts: Evercore ISI projects that hamburger prices will rise about 15% in the first half of 2026, while steak prices are expected to increase by 5% to 15% depending on the cut, which will impose ongoing cost pressures on consumers and the restaurant industry.
- Industry Impact: Texas Roadhouse anticipates facing nearly 150 basis points of food cost deleverage in 2026, as approximately 50% of its commodity basket consists of beef, with key steak cuts like sirloin, ribeye, and filet expected to experience mid- to high-single- to double-digit inflation.
- Market Outlook: Analysts suggest that while beef inflation may finally end by late 2026, the high beef prices in the short term will continue to impact the profitability of several restaurant companies, particularly those unable to fully pass on costs to consumers.
See More
Nike Shows Improvement Under New CEO Elliott Hill, 2026 Performance Outlook Positive
- Nike Market Recovery: Under the leadership of new CEO Elliott Hill, Nike has shown significant improvement in the U.S. market, with expectations for further performance enhancement in 2026, particularly in the recovering Chinese market.
- Procter & Gamble Earnings Cleanup: Procter & Gamble's quarterly earnings report was weak but management indicated that the worst is behind them, setting the stage for improved performance in 2026, especially under new CEO Shailesh Jejurikar.
- Starbucks Sales Rebound: With China stabilizing and improving sales trends in North America, Starbucks is expected to provide positive updates during its upcoming Investor Day, and despite being overbought, it remains a solid position in the portfolio.
- Texas Roadhouse Optimistic Outlook: Despite challenges from rising beef prices, Jim Cramer forecasts a decline in beef prices, maintaining a positive outlook on Texas Roadhouse and not planning to take profits on the stock again.
See More
