TXRH Should I Buy
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TXRH is NOT a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The stock is still in a short-term downswing (bearish MACD expansion) and is sitting right on key support (~180). With insiders aggressively selling, beef-cost inflation headlines, and earnings coming up (Feb 19) as the next major catalyst, the risk/reward favors waiting for either a clean bounce confirmation off 176–180 support or a reclaim of ~188 (pivot) before buying.
Price/Trend: TXRH fell -2.26% in the regular session and is ~179.8 post-market, pressing into the S1 support zone (S1=180.497; S2=176.051). Momentum: MACD histogram is -1.524 and negatively expanding, signaling bearish momentum is strengthening (downtrend not yet exhausted). RSI: RSI_6 is ~29.1 (near oversold), which can support a reflex bounce, but oversold alone is not a buy signal while MACD continues to deteriorate. Moving averages: converging MAs suggest indecision/transition, but with price below the pivot (187.694), bears have the advantage. Levels to watch: downside support 180 then 176; upside resistance/pivot 187.7, then 194.9 and 199.3. Pattern-based near-term odds provided: ~60% chance of a modest +1.32% next-day move, but that’s small relative to the nearby downside levels if support breaks.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Earnings catalyst: Q4 2025 results on 2026-02-19 after close (could re-rate shares if comps/margins surprise positively).
Analyst backdrop is supportive: multiple Buy/Overweight ratings with raised targets (200–220 range) suggest Wall Street still sees upside longer term.
Short-term technical setup is near oversold at support (RSI ~29 near 176–180 support), which can produce a bounce if selling pressure fades.
Cost pressure headline: beef inventories at multi-decade lows with beef prices rising; forecasts of +15% hamburger prices in 1H26 imply margin risk for casual dining (TXRH is directly exposed).
Insider activity: insiders are selling, with selling amount up ~372.68% over the last month—negative near-term signal.
Technical momentum still bearish: MACD negative and expanding while price is below pivot (~187.7); a break below ~180 opens risk toward ~176 quickly.
Pre-earnings uncertainty: with earnings in ~3 weeks, a downside guide/commentary on costs could trigger further drawdown from current levels.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to ~$1.436B (+12.83% YoY), showing solid top-line momentum. Profitability weakened: net income ~$83.2M (-1.47% YoY) and EPS 1.25 (-0.79% YoY), alongside gross margin down to ~60.72 (-3.85% YoY). Bottom line: growth remains strong, but margin compression is the key issue—and current beef-cost news reinforces that risk into the next quarter/earnings print.
Recent trend: price targets have been moving up into late Jan 2026, with several firms reaffirming bullish stances. Notable updates: Wells Fargo kept Overweight and raised PT to $220 (from $195); TD Cowen initiated Buy with $215; Truist raised PT to $206 (Buy); Morgan Stanley maintained Overweight and raised to $208; Goldman raised PT to $200 but stayed Neutral; Barclays stayed Equal Weight with PT $185; BMO stayed Market Perform with PT $170. Wall Street pros: consistent same-store-sales outperformance track record, brand/value perception, and casual dining viewed as a relative winner in 2026. Wall Street cons: sector-wide demand/margin headwinds, commodity inflation (especially beef), and potential mixed near-term same-store-sales results. Influential/politician trading: No recent congress trading data available. Hedge funds: neutral over the last quarter (no significant trend).
