Affirm Shares Soar Following Record-Breaking Fourth Quarter Performance
Affirm Holdings' Record-Breaking Quarter
Earnings and Revenue: Affirm Holdings reported earnings of 20 cents per share, nearly double analysts' expectations. The company achieved a quarterly revenue of $876 million, marking a 33% year-over-year increase and also exceeding forecasts.
CEO's Remarks: CEO Max Levchin highlighted the company's exceptional performance during the earnings call, noting that they set new records across most metrics, which is atypical for Q4. He emphasized that their growth is accelerating and that they are operating at full capacity.
Customer Engagement and Credit Management
Repeat Customers: A significant factor in Affirm's success is the high rate of repeat customers, which constituted 95% of transactions in the fourth quarter. This strong customer loyalty allows Affirm to focus on effective consumer underwriting.
Credit Monitoring: Levchin stressed the importance of credit management, stating that the executive team receives regular updates on credit performance. He expressed confidence in U.S. consumers' resilience and spending power, indicating a strong ability to repay loans on time.
Future Expansion Plans
- Market Expansion: Affirm is actively expanding into new markets using a reusable technology platform and global partnerships. The company is piloting its Shopify model in the U.K. and anticipates further growth in Europe.
Stock Performance
- Stock Surge: Following the earnings report, Affirm's stock price rose by 13.01%, reaching $90.40 at the time of publication. This reflects strong investor confidence in the company's performance and future prospects.
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- Strong Performance: Affirm Holdings reported fiscal Q2 revenues and volumes exceeding expectations, prompting management to raise its fiscal 2026 guidance, indicating resilience in the market.
- Growth Outlook Adjustment: While the company anticipates 32%-33% volume growth for fiscal 2026, surpassing the consensus estimate of 29%, analysts expressed disappointment over the fourth quarter's GMV performance, suggesting risks of slowing growth.
- Analyst Rating Changes: JPMorgan analyst Reginald Smith maintained an Overweight rating on Affirm but reduced the price target from $94 to $79, reflecting a cautious outlook on future growth.
- Market Reaction: Affirm's shares fell 1.26% to $59.42 in premarket trading on Friday, indicating investor concerns regarding the company's slowing growth trajectory.
- Earnings Beat: Affirm reported earnings per share of 37 cents for Q2, surpassing the consensus estimate of 30 cents, indicating improved profitability that may attract more investor interest.
- Significant Revenue Growth: The company posted revenue of $1.12 billion, exceeding the expected $1.05 billion, demonstrating strong business expansion and market demand, which is likely to drive stock price appreciation.
- Customer and Merchant Growth: Active customers increased by 23% to 25.8 million, while active merchants rose by 42% to 478,000, showcasing Affirm's competitive edge and appeal in the market, potentially laying the groundwork for future revenue growth.
- Guidance Upgrade: Affirm raised its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance to between $4.08 billion and $4.14 billion, reflecting confidence in future performance, which may enhance market sentiment towards its stock.
- Stock Performance: Affirm Holdings' stock declined on Friday despite reporting strong fiscal second-quarter earnings.
- Analyst Opinions: Some analysts believe the market reaction to the earnings report is unjustified.
- Earnings Beat: Affirm reported Q2 2026 earnings of $0.37 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $0.30, indicating improved profitability that may boost investor confidence.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved quarterly revenue of $1.12 billion, exceeding Wall Street's expectation of $1.06 billion, reflecting strong market demand that supports future business expansion.
- Strategic Partnership: Affirm's collaboration with Virgin Media O2 introduces transparent and flexible hardware financing options for O2 customers, enhancing O2's competitiveness in the SIM-free market, which is expected to attract more customers and increase sales.
- Positive Outlook: Affirm anticipates Q3 revenue between $970 million and $1 billion, and Q4 between $1.060 billion and $1.090 billion, while raising its FY26 revenue guidance to $4.09 billion to $4.15 billion, demonstrating confidence in future growth.
- Futures Rise: U.S. stock futures advanced on Friday after Thursday's sharp sell-off, indicating a potential recovery in investor sentiment and possibly leading to increased capital inflows into the market.
- Trump's Drug Price Website: President Trump announced the launch of a new website aimed at lowering drug prices, which will provide consumers access to more affordable prescription medications, potentially impacting pricing strategies in the pharmaceutical industry and raising public awareness about drug accessibility.
- Jobs Report Delayed: The January jobs report, originally scheduled for release today, has been postponed to next Wednesday due to the partial government shutdown earlier this week, which may affect short-term market expectations regarding economic health and increase investor uncertainty.
- Stable Treasury Yields: The 10-year Treasury bond yield stood at 4.20%, while the two-year bond yield was at 3.48%, reflecting market expectations of unchanged interest rates; the CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates an 81.3% likelihood of this, which could influence investors' asset allocation strategies.
- Partnership Announcement: Affirm has partnered with Virgin Media O2, one of the UK's leading mobile providers, to offer transparent and flexible hardware financing options, enhancing customer experience for both new and existing users when purchasing devices.
- No Hidden Fees: Affirm's financing options cover mobile phones, headphones, and gaming consoles, ensuring customers are not charged late or hidden fees when repaying their loans, which enhances payment transparency and builds trust with consumers.
- Market Expansion Potential: This partnership allows Virgin Media O2 to expand its offerings in the SIM-free market, adding to its existing portfolio of Pay Monthly Handset Bundles and SIM Only options, thereby increasing its competitive edge in the market.
- Future Development Plans: Flexible payment plans are expected to be available to Virgin Media O2 customers later this summer, pending regulatory approval, which will help improve payment convenience for customers and enhance the company's market influence.











