Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: earnings are after-hours on 2026-02-05, and the chart is still in a short-term downtrend despite being oversold.
Setup is “bounce-capable” near support (~60.78), but the lack of proprietary buy signals plus heavy insider selling tilts risk/reward away from an immediate entry.
Better stance now: hold/watch into earnings; a confirmed post-earnings reclaim of ~66.6 (pivot) would improve the buy case materially.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram at -1.48 (below 0) signals bearish momentum, but it is negatively contracting, implying downside momentum is fading.
RSI: RSI_6 at ~24 is oversold (despite the provided label), which often precedes short-term mean reversion bounces.
Moving averages: converging MAs suggests trend is trying to stabilize, but not yet a clean uptrend.
Levels to trade against: Support S1 ~60.78 (very close to current ~61.71) then S2 ~57.19; Resistance pivot ~66.60, then R1 ~72.41 and R2 ~76.
Probabilistic pattern read: model suggests positive drift (next day/week/month), supporting a bounce thesis, but it’s not strong enough to override the near-term earnings catalyst risk.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Open Interest Put-Call Ratio 1.09 indicates slightly more puts outstanding (cautious/hedged positioning).
Flow today: Option Volume Put-Call Ratio 0.52 shows call volume > put volume (near-term bullish trading appetite).
Volatility: 30D IV ~69.73 vs HV ~71.61 (IV slightly below realized), with IV percentile ~46.8 (mid-range) — options are not extremely “priced for panic,” but are still expensive in absolute terms.
Activity: Today’s volume is 76.9% of 30D average (not a major spike), while open interest is elevated (103.9% vs avg), suggesting positioning is already built ahead of the catalyst.
Technical Summary
Sell
11
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
increases odds of a reflex rally if earnings aren’t negative.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
implies investors remain meaningfully hedged into the event.
Profitability trend (per provided data): Net income 80.7M, down -180.52% YoY; EPS 0.23, down -174.19% YoY — indicates sharp YoY deterioration in bottom-line metrics.
Margins: Gross margin 92.33%, up slightly (+0.11% YoY), suggesting unit economics/fees remain resilient even as net income/EPS weakened.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: ratings have moved more bullish overall (upgrades/initiations), though some price targets were trimmed.
Key changes: Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight with $76 PT (from Equal Weight; PT reduced from $83). Needham upgraded to Buy with $100 PT. Cantor initiated Overweight at $85. TD Cowen maintained Buy but trimmed PT to $110.
Wall Street pros: BNPL share-gain thesis, partner network strength, potential “Affirm Bank” funding advantage, and expanding distribution (e.g., QuickBooks).
Wall Street cons: concerns about growth slowdown and consumer credit; at least one firm (Wolfe) wants a better entry point despite acknowledging differentiation.
Wall Street analysts forecast AFRM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AFRM is 95.5 USD with a low forecast of 83 USD and a high forecast of 114 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AFRM stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AFRM is 95.5 USD with a low forecast of 83 USD and a high forecast of 114 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Buy
6 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 59.420
Low
83
Averages
95.5
High
114
Current: 59.420
Low
83
Averages
95.5
High
114
Needham
Kyle Peterson
Buy
downgrade
$100 -> $85
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Needham
Kyle Peterson
Price Target
$100 -> $85
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Needham analyst Kyle Peterson lowered the firm's price target on Affirm to $85 from $100 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's Q2 results beat the Street on the top and bottom line while the outlook provided for the back half of the year was solid, and Affirm also provided additional insights on the new AdaptAI/BoostAI tools which are showing promise and could improve both growth and margins over time, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Goldman Sachs
Buy
downgrade
$96 -> $83
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$96 -> $83
2026-02-06
New
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Affirm to $83 from $96 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Affirm delivered a typical beat-and-raise, with constructive commentary on Revenue Less Transaction Costs margins, consistent pricing, and healthy credit trends, while active merchant growth benefited from wallet partnerships, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The company's guidance points to a mid-20s GMV exit run rate for FY27, supporting expectations for continued growth, and the recent weakness in consumer fintech shares may present a compelling opportunity, the firm says.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for AFRM
