Oshkosh Corporation Secures $142 Million in Defense Contracts Amid Revenue Decline Risks
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 19 2026
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Defense Contract Wins: Oshkosh Corporation secured $142 million in contracts from the U.S. Department of Defense, including $53 million for Common Bridge Transporters and $89 million for Palletized Load System A2 vehicles, indicating growth in its Defense unit, yet insufficient to offset weaknesses in other segments.
- Revenue Outlook Trimmed: The company expects 2025 revenues to range between $10.3 billion and $10.4 billion, down from a prior estimate of $10.6 billion to $10.75 billion, reflecting cautious customer behavior in equipment purchases, particularly in Access and Transport segments.
- Declining Order Trends: Oshkosh's consolidated backlog fell to $13.7 billion from $14.3 billion year-over-year, signaling a decrease in future sales commitments, especially in Access Equipment, where customers are deferring capital expenditures due to tariff uncertainties.
- AI Technology Implementation: While Oshkosh is advancing in artificial intelligence and technology to enhance data-driven decision-making and operational efficiency, these long-term strategic initiatives have yet to materially impact short-term financial performance, leaving the company with elevated risk levels.
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Analyst Views on OSK
Wall Street analysts forecast OSK stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OSK is 152.40 USD with a low forecast of 132.00 USD and a high forecast of 180.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 163.480
Low
132.00
Averages
152.40
High
180.00
Current: 163.480
Low
132.00
Averages
152.40
High
180.00
About OSK
Oshkosh Corporation is an industrial company focused on the designing, development and manufacturing of purpose-built vehicles and equipment. It operates through three segments. Access segment designs and manufactures access and material handling equipment for use in a range of construction, industrial, agricultural, vegetation management, and maintenance applications to position workers and materials at height under brands, JLG and SkyTrak. The segment's customer base includes equipment rental companies, construction contractors, manufacturing companies and home improvement centers. The segment also includes Jerr-Dan towing and recovery vehicles. Defense segment designs, manufactures and sustains specialty vehicles and mobility systems for the United States Department of Defense and exports tactical wheeled vehicles to approved foreign customers. Vocational segment includes the Pierce, Maxi-Metal, McNeilus, AeroTech, IMT, Frontline Communications and Oshkosh S-Series businesses.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Oshkosh Defense Secures $25 Million Contract from U.S. Army
- Significant Contract Value: Oshkosh Defense has been awarded an additional $25 million contract from the U.S. Army to deliver FMTV A2 Low-Velocity Airdrop (LVAD) 4x4 Cargo vehicles and kits, reflecting strong customer demand for mission-critical tactical mobility solutions.
- Growing Order Volume: This order follows a recent contract for 97 vehicles, with the Army having placed orders for a total of 797 FMTV A2 LVADs to date, indicating a commitment to modernizing airborne and expeditionary logistics capabilities.
- Enhanced Operational Capability: The FMTV A2 LVAD is designed to be parachuted from aircraft, providing critical supplies and a mission-ready vehicle immediately upon deployment, thereby reducing reliance on vulnerable ground convoys and improving sustainment for forward-deployed units.
- Strategic Implications: This contract underscores Oshkosh Defense's commitment to supporting the U.S. Army, as the combination of proven mobility and airdrop capability enhances operational effectiveness in contested terrains and limited access scenarios.
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- Rating Upgrade: Bank of America upgraded Oshkosh (OSK) from Underperform to Neutral, reflecting a more balanced outlook for the company's Access segment and an improved risk-reward profile.
- Sales Forecast Adjustment: Although Oshkosh has again lowered its Access sales forecast for 2026, projecting a 20% decline from peak levels, BofA views this as realistic and likely indicative of a trough in sales.
- Profit Structure Optimization: Profits are increasingly derived from more stable operations such as fire trucks and airport ground support equipment, with Access now representing a smaller share of earnings than in previous cycles, indicating a positive shift in the company's portfolio.
- Cash Flow Improvement: The company's free cash flow is improving, providing capacity for share buybacks, while a record backlog in the Vocational business and deliveries tied to the U.S. Postal Service contract enhance visibility into long-term earnings.
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- Strong Financial Performance: Oshkosh Corporation reported $10.4 billion in revenue for FY 2025 with adjusted EPS of $10.79, reflecting effective tariff management and cost controls despite market challenges.
- Positive Outlook: The company anticipates sales of approximately $11 billion for 2026 with adjusted EPS projected at $11.50, primarily driven by growth in the vocational segment and NGDV ramp-up, although softness is expected in the Access segment.
- Robust Orders: Access segment orders exceeded $1.7 billion with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5, and the vocational segment backlog surpassed $6.6 billion, providing excellent market visibility.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: Oshkosh repurchased $278 million in shares in 2025, with free cash flow of $540 million, demonstrating a balance between ongoing investments and shareholder returns.
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Oshkosh Increases Quarterly Dividend by 11.8%
- Dividend Increase: Oshkosh has declared a quarterly dividend increase from $0.51 to $0.57 per share, marking an 11.8% rise that reflects the company's ongoing improvement in profitability and cash flow management.
- Yield Metrics: Following this increase, Oshkosh's forward dividend yield stands at 1.56%, providing investors with a relatively stable return and enhancing its attractiveness in the current market environment.
- Payment Schedule: The new dividend will be payable on March 3, with a record date of February 17 and an ex-dividend date also set for February 17, ensuring that existing shareholders benefit from this increase.
- Historical Context: Oshkosh has consistently paid a quarterly dividend of $0.51 over the past four quarters, and this increase demonstrates the company's confidence in its future financial health, potentially attracting more long-term investors.
See More
Oshkosh Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations Despite EPS Miss
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- Operating Income Decline: Adjusted operating income for Q4 decreased by 7.9% to $225.9 million, or 8.4% of sales, compared to $245.4 million and 9.4% in Q4 2024, highlighting the impact of cost pressures on profitability.
- Future Guidance: Oshkosh initiates 2026 EPS guidance in the range of $10.90 to $11.50, below the consensus of $12.33, reflecting a cautious outlook on future profitability amid market uncertainties.
- Military Order: Oshkosh Defense secures a $53 million order from the U.S. Army for Common Bridge Transporters, further solidifying its market position in the defense sector.
See More
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- Transportation Stocks Rally: Saia, Inc. jumped 23.07% this week, benefiting from declining oil prices, which led to a strong performance across the transportation sector, indicating optimistic market expectations for transportation demand that could enhance future earnings.
- Westlake Stock Increase: Westlake Corporation saw a 19.27% rise in its stock price this week, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding its business outlook, particularly in the context of declining raw material costs that may improve profitability.
- Market Recovery: The strong performance of these stocks indicates a growing investor confidence in economic recovery, especially amid falling oil prices, which could further drive growth in related industries.
See More
Oshkosh Defense Secures $25 Million Contract from U.S. Army
- Significant Contract Value: Oshkosh Defense has been awarded an additional $25 million contract from the U.S. Army to deliver FMTV A2 Low-Velocity Airdrop (LVAD) 4x4 Cargo vehicles and kits, reflecting strong customer demand for mission-critical tactical mobility solutions.
- Growing Order Volume: This order follows a recent contract for 97 vehicles, with the Army having placed orders for a total of 797 FMTV A2 LVADs to date, indicating a commitment to modernizing airborne and expeditionary logistics capabilities.
- Enhanced Operational Capability: The FMTV A2 LVAD is designed to be parachuted from aircraft, providing critical supplies and a mission-ready vehicle immediately upon deployment, thereby reducing reliance on vulnerable ground convoys and improving sustainment for forward-deployed units.
- Strategic Implications: This contract underscores Oshkosh Defense's commitment to supporting the U.S. Army, as the combination of proven mobility and airdrop capability enhances operational effectiveness in contested terrains and limited access scenarios.
See More
Bank of America Upgrades Oshkosh to Neutral Amid Improved Outlook
- Rating Upgrade: Bank of America upgraded Oshkosh (OSK) from Underperform to Neutral, reflecting a more balanced outlook for the company's Access segment and an improved risk-reward profile.
- Sales Forecast Adjustment: Although Oshkosh has again lowered its Access sales forecast for 2026, projecting a 20% decline from peak levels, BofA views this as realistic and likely indicative of a trough in sales.
- Profit Structure Optimization: Profits are increasingly derived from more stable operations such as fire trucks and airport ground support equipment, with Access now representing a smaller share of earnings than in previous cycles, indicating a positive shift in the company's portfolio.
- Cash Flow Improvement: The company's free cash flow is improving, providing capacity for share buybacks, while a record backlog in the Vocational business and deliveries tied to the U.S. Postal Service contract enhance visibility into long-term earnings.
See More
Oshkosh Corporation Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Strong Financial Performance: Oshkosh Corporation reported $10.4 billion in revenue for FY 2025 with adjusted EPS of $10.79, reflecting effective tariff management and cost controls despite market challenges.
- Positive Outlook: The company anticipates sales of approximately $11 billion for 2026 with adjusted EPS projected at $11.50, primarily driven by growth in the vocational segment and NGDV ramp-up, although softness is expected in the Access segment.
- Robust Orders: Access segment orders exceeded $1.7 billion with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.5, and the vocational segment backlog surpassed $6.6 billion, providing excellent market visibility.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: Oshkosh repurchased $278 million in shares in 2025, with free cash flow of $540 million, demonstrating a balance between ongoing investments and shareholder returns.
See More
Oshkosh Increases Quarterly Dividend by 11.8%
- Dividend Increase: Oshkosh has declared a quarterly dividend increase from $0.51 to $0.57 per share, marking an 11.8% rise that reflects the company's ongoing improvement in profitability and cash flow management.
- Yield Metrics: Following this increase, Oshkosh's forward dividend yield stands at 1.56%, providing investors with a relatively stable return and enhancing its attractiveness in the current market environment.
- Payment Schedule: The new dividend will be payable on March 3, with a record date of February 17 and an ex-dividend date also set for February 17, ensuring that existing shareholders benefit from this increase.
- Historical Context: Oshkosh has consistently paid a quarterly dividend of $0.51 over the past four quarters, and this increase demonstrates the company's confidence in its future financial health, potentially attracting more long-term investors.
See More
Oshkosh Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations Despite EPS Miss
- Earnings Highlights: Oshkosh's Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $2.26 misses by $0.05, yet revenue of $2.69 billion, reflecting a 2.7% year-over-year increase, beats expectations by $90 million, indicating resilience in revenue growth despite EPS shortfall.
- Operating Income Decline: Adjusted operating income for Q4 decreased by 7.9% to $225.9 million, or 8.4% of sales, compared to $245.4 million and 9.4% in Q4 2024, highlighting the impact of cost pressures on profitability.
- Future Guidance: Oshkosh initiates 2026 EPS guidance in the range of $10.90 to $11.50, below the consensus of $12.33, reflecting a cautious outlook on future profitability amid market uncertainties.
- Military Order: Oshkosh Defense secures a $53 million order from the U.S. Army for Common Bridge Transporters, further solidifying its market position in the defense sector.
See More
