OSK Should I Buy
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Buy OSK now. Despite a recent EPS miss and some near-term bearish momentum signals, the stock is trading near a key pivot (148.84) after earnings, has bullish longer-term moving-average structure, very bullish options positioning (low put/call), supportive news flow (dividend hike + 2026 sales outlook), and generally constructive Wall Street targets (roughly mid-$150s to high-$160s). For an impatient buyer, the current pre-market level (148.25) is an acceptable entry with upside skew toward the 157 area (R1) if sentiment holds.
Price/levels: Pre-market ~148.25, sitting just below the pivot (148.843). Immediate upside levels are R1 157.239 then R2 162.426; support sits at S1 140.446 then S2 135.259. Trend: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating the broader trend remains constructive. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-1.066) and worsening, suggesting near-term downside momentum has been present. RSI: RSI_6 at ~34.5 signals weakened/near-oversold conditions (not deeply oversold), which often aligns with a bounce setup—especially when longer-term trend (MAs) is still bullish. Read-through: Technically this looks like a pullback within a broader uptrend; buying near the pivot after an earnings-driven move is reasonable for a fast-acting entry, with the next technical magnet around 157.
Earnings/news catalyst: FY2025 revenue reported at ~$10.4B and 2026 sales outlook around ~$11B supports a recovery narrative.
Shareholder return: Quarterly dividend increased from $0.51 to $0.57 (+11.8%), reinforcing confidence and supporting sentiment.
Street backdrop: Multiple firms have Buy/Overweight stances and raised targets into 2026 on cycle recovery, defense contract dynamics, and vocational backlog/ramps.
Options positioning: Very low put/call ratios suggest upside speculation/positioning remains dominant.
Profitability pressure: Q4 adjusted/non-GAAP EPS missed expectations; net income and EPS declined YoY.
Margin compression: Gross margin down YoY (15.26%, down ~8.46% YoY per snapshot), which can cap multiple expansion.
Near-term momentum: MACD is negative and deteriorating, implying the stock may still face selling pressure on rallies.
Macro tape: S&P 500 is down pre-market (-0.34%), which can reduce follow-through on industrial cyclicals intraday.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth/mix: Revenue rose to ~$2.689B (+3.49% YoY), but profitability weakened—net income ~$133.8M (-12.61% YoY) and EPS ~$2.10 (-9.87% YoY). Margins: Gross margin ~15.26%, down YoY, signaling cost/price mix or ramp-related pressures. Takeaway: Top-line growth is intact, but earnings/margins are the current weak spot; the bull case depends on 2026 ramp/cycle recovery translating into improved margins and EPS.
Recent trend: Price targets have generally moved up into late Jan (e.g., Wells Fargo to $168 Overweight; JPMorgan to $155 Neutral). UBS remains Buy (PT ~163) with only slight trimming earlier; Barclays initiated Overweight ($150). One more cautious voice is Bernstein (Market Perform, PT $140). Wall Street pros: (a) Recovery phase in machinery/industrial cycle, (b) improved military contract terms/defense outlook, (c) vocational backlog and production ramps, (d) valuation seen as not demanding with longer-run earnings power. Wall Street cons: (a) Execution risk on the implied "steep ramp" and margin recovery, (b) cyclical sensitivity/macroeconomic softness, (c) near-term earnings/margin pressure evidenced by the recent quarter. Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available. Hedge/insider: Hedge funds neutral (no notable recent trend); insiders neutral (no notable recent trend).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
