NGL Energy Partners increases FY26 adjusted EBITDA forecast to a range of $650M-$660M.
Increased EBITDA Guidance: NGL has raised its consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance for Fiscal 2026 to a range of $650M-$660M, up from the previous $615M-$625M.
Growth Capital Expansion: The company is increasing its growth capital from $60M to $160M due to new contracts supported by significant producer volume commitments.
Future EBITDA Expectations: NGL anticipates that the majority of the adjusted EBITDA from new contracts will be realized in Fiscal 2027, with expectations to exceed $700M.
Positive Business Performance: CEO Mike Krimbill highlighted strong performance in the Water Solutions business and ongoing initiatives aimed at enhancing value for Unitholders, including redeeming Class D Preferred equity and purchasing common units.
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- Earnings Performance: NGL Energy Partners reported a GAAP EPS of $0.10 for Q3, missing expectations by $0.06, indicating a shortfall in profitability that could negatively impact investor confidence.
- Revenue Analysis: The company's revenue of $909.82 million represents a 7.4% year-over-year decline, although it exceeded market expectations by $209.06 million, the ongoing revenue drop may affect future growth outlooks.
- Growth Potential: NGL Energy Partners has proposed an attractive growth strategy as its water business ramps up, indicating a strategic intent to diversify operations, which could lay the groundwork for a performance rebound in the future.
- Market Reaction: Following a recent 135% rally in stock price, the market has reassessed NGL Energy Partners' stock rating, and despite potential short-term volatility, the long-term growth prospects continue to attract investor interest.

- Water Solutions Growth: For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, NGL's Water Solutions segment saw operating income increase by $32.8 million year-over-year to $98.2 million, primarily driven by higher processed water volumes and the operational commencement of the LEX II pipeline, indicating strong market demand and growth potential with projected Adjusted EBITDA exceeding $700 million for Fiscal 2027.
- Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: The company reaffirms its full-year guidance for Adjusted EBITDA between $650 million and $660 million, reflecting ongoing growth and opportunities in the Water Solutions segment, suggesting a positive outlook for future financial performance.
- Increased Capital Expenditures: As of December 31, 2025, NGL reported total liquidity of approximately $331.1 million, primarily allocated to capital expenditures within the Water Solutions segment, demonstrating the company's commitment to investment and confidence in future growth.
- Overall Financial Performance: Total revenue for Q3 2025 reached $909.8 million, and despite a $7.6 million decline in operating income from the Liquids Logistics segment, overall operating income still amounted to $109.7 million, showcasing the company's resilience and adaptability across its diversified operations.

- Significant Revenue Growth: In Q3 of Fiscal 2026, NGL reported income from continuing operations of $48.2 million, a remarkable 102.5% increase from $23.7 million in Q3 of Fiscal 2025, indicating strong performance in the Water Solutions segment and enhancing future financial stability.
- Adjusted EBITDA Increase: The Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter reached $172.5 million, up 9.2% from $158.0 million in the same quarter last year, reflecting ongoing improvements in operational efficiency and cost control, which bolster investor confidence.
- Record Water Disposal Volumes: NGL disposed of approximately 3.07 million barrels of water per day in Q3, a 17.1% year-over-year increase, which not only enhances market share but also underscores the company's leadership in water solutions, setting a solid foundation for future growth.
- Share Repurchase Program: The company repurchased over 1.61 million common units during the quarter, bringing the total repurchased to approximately 8.7 million units at an average price of $5.6963, a move that not only boosts earnings per share but also reflects confidence in the company's intrinsic value.
- Agreement Signed: Natura Resources has signed an agreement with NGL Water Solutions to combine its 100-megawatt molten salt reactor with NGL's desalination technology, aiming to provide flexible and economical energy and water solutions for Texas, promoting sustainability.
- Enhanced Water Treatment: This collaboration will leverage NGL's capacity to treat over 3 million barrels of produced water daily, potentially scaling treatment capabilities for industrial applications, thereby meeting the demand for clean water in sectors like data centers and agriculture, enhancing water sustainability.
- Technological Advantages: Natura's molten salt reactor features modular construction, a smaller footprint, and reduced water requirements, expected to generate 24/7 power at costs lower than other clean energy sources, thereby enhancing energy security and minimizing waste.
- Future Deployment Plans: Natura anticipates deploying its first 100-megawatt commercial-scale reactor by 2029, further advancing the development of advanced nuclear technology in the U.S. to meet the growing domestic and global demands for reliable energy and clean water.
- Earnings Announcement: NGL Energy Partners is scheduled to announce its Q3 2023 earnings on February 3rd after market close, with consensus estimates predicting an EPS of $0.16 and revenue of $700.76 million, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 54.8%.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past year, NGL has only beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time and revenue estimates 25% of the time, indicating considerable volatility in its performance, which necessitates cautious evaluation by investors.
- Water Business Growth: The company's water business is ramping up, and market analysts believe that this expansion presents an attractive growth proposal, potentially improving future financial performance as demand increases.
- Stock Performance Analysis: NGL Energy Partners' stock has surged by 135% recently, accompanied by rating upgrades, indicating growing market confidence in its future growth potential, despite current financial data showing some pressure.








