Murphy USA Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations with Strong EPS Growth
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4d ago
0mins
Should l Buy MUSA?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Beat: Murphy USA reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $7.53, exceeding expectations by $0.67, indicating strong profitability that may boost investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Revenue Miss: The Q4 revenue of $4.74 billion, while up 0.6% year-over-year, fell short of expectations by $100 million, reflecting increased market competition and sales pressure that could impact future growth strategies.
- Fuel Contribution Improvement: The total fuel contribution for Q4 2025 was 34.3 cents per gallon, up from 32.5 cents per gallon in Q4 2024, suggesting improvements in fuel pricing and cost control that could enhance overall profit margins.
- Retail Volume Fluctuations: Total retail gallons increased by 3.1% in Q4 2025, yet same-store sales volumes declined by 0.6%, indicating market demand volatility that may prompt the company to reassess its market strategies to adapt to changes.
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Analyst Views on MUSA
Wall Street analysts forecast MUSA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MUSA is 409.50 USD with a low forecast of 340.00 USD and a high forecast of 463.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
1 Buy
2 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 397.420
Low
340.00
Averages
409.50
High
463.00
Current: 397.420
Low
340.00
Averages
409.50
High
463.00
About MUSA
Murphy USA Inc. is a retailer of gasoline and convenience merchandise with more than 1,760 stores located primarily in the Southwest, Southeast, Midwest and Northeast United States. The Company has one operating segment, which is Marketing. The Marketing segment includes its retail marketing stores and product supply and wholesale assets. The majority of its existing and new-to-industry (NTI) retail gasoline stores operate under the brand names of Murphy USA and Murphy Express. The majority of Murphy USA's stores are located in proximity to Walmart Supercenters. The Company also markets gasoline and other products at standalone stores under the Murphy Express and QuickChek brands. The Company has a network of retail gasoline and convenience stores in approximately 27 states. In addition, it markets fuel to unbranded wholesale customers through a mixture of Company-owned and third-party product distribution terminals and pipeline positions.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Murphy USA Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Competitive Pressure Analysis: CEO Mindy West highlighted that competitive pressures are impacting same-store sales, particularly in Texas where both volumes and margins are higher, while states like Colorado and Florida are still stabilizing, indicating the complexity of market dynamics.
- Maintenance Investment Returns: The company anticipates saving $6 million to $8 million in maintenance costs by proactively investing in aging equipment, a strategy that not only reduces future equipment failure risks but also enhances operational efficiency, ensuring long-term cost control.
- EBITDA Target Outlook: West reiterated that achieving the $1.2 billion EBITDA target by 2028 relies on store expansion and fuel market normalization, with 50 new stores expected to contribute $35 million to $40 million in EBITDA, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Market Outlook and Strategy: The 2026 outlook emphasizes the timing and scale impacts of the new store program, with over 50 new stores expected annually, and West stated that as market conditions change, investors will be surprised by the business's earnings power, indicating growth potential in a competitive landscape.
See More
Murphy USA Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations with Strong EPS Growth
- Earnings Beat: Murphy USA reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $7.53, exceeding expectations by $0.67, indicating strong profitability that may boost investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Revenue Miss: The Q4 revenue of $4.74 billion, while up 0.6% year-over-year, fell short of expectations by $100 million, reflecting increased market competition and sales pressure that could impact future growth strategies.
- Fuel Contribution Improvement: The total fuel contribution for Q4 2025 was 34.3 cents per gallon, up from 32.5 cents per gallon in Q4 2024, suggesting improvements in fuel pricing and cost control that could enhance overall profit margins.
- Retail Volume Fluctuations: Total retail gallons increased by 3.1% in Q4 2025, yet same-store sales volumes declined by 0.6%, indicating market demand volatility that may prompt the company to reassess its market strategies to adapt to changes.
See More
Murphy USA Reports Strong Q4 and Full Year 2025 Financial Results
- Stable Net Income: Murphy USA reported a net income of $141.9 million for Q4 2025, translating to $7.53 per diluted share, which remained nearly flat compared to Q4 2024, demonstrating the company's resilience amid market volatility.
- Fuel Contribution Growth: The total fuel contribution for Q4 2025 reached $423.6 million, an 8.9% increase from the previous year, primarily driven by improved retail fuel margins and higher sales volumes, reflecting the company's ability to maintain profitability in a competitive market.
- Merchandise Sales Performance: For the full year 2025, merchandise contribution totaled $869 million, up 4.2% year-over-year, indicating ongoing improvements in merchandise sales and unit margins, which enhance overall profitability.
- Share Buybacks and Dividends: The company repurchased approximately 1.5 million shares for a total of $652 million in 2025, while also declaring a quarterly cash dividend of $0.63 per share, an 18.9% increase from September 2025, underscoring its commitment to shareholder returns.
See More
Murphy USA Scheduled to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 4
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Murphy USA is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings report on February 4 after market close, with consensus EPS estimates at $6.90, reflecting a 0.9% year-over-year decline, while revenue is projected at $4.84 billion, indicating a 2.8% year-over-year increase.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past year, Murphy USA has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time, yet has failed to meet revenue expectations, highlighting volatility in its profitability metrics.
- Expectation Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates have experienced one upward revision and seven downward revisions, indicating a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Despite a recent decline in Murphy USA's stock price, its stability in earnings expectations and historical performance continues to attract investor attention, which may influence its future market performance.
See More
Murphy USA Inc. Dividend History and Volatility Assessment
- Dividend Yield Expectation: Murphy USA Inc.'s recent dividend yield stands at 0.6%, a figure that reflects the company's historical profitability fluctuations, indicating that the sustainability of future dividends remains a point of concern.
- Historical Volatility Analysis: With a trailing twelve-month volatility of 34% calculated from the last 251 trading days' closing prices, this high volatility may influence investors' decisions regarding dividends and options strategies.
- Options Trading Dynamics: On Friday, the put volume among S&P 500 components reached 1.53 million contracts, while call volume was at 2.57 million, indicating a preference for call options among investors, reflecting a positive market sentiment.
- Risk and Reward Assessment: When considering selling covered calls at a $530 strike price, investors must weigh the potential rewards against the risk of giving up upside beyond $530, ensuring the strategy's soundness.
See More
Murphy USA (MUSA) to Announce Q4 2025 Financial Results on February 4, 2026
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Murphy USA will release its Q4 2025 financial results after market close on February 4, 2026, providing pre-recorded management remarks that are expected to significantly impact investors.
- Live Q&A Session: Following the earnings release, a live Q&A session will take place at 10:00 a.m. CT on February 5, 2026, allowing investors to engage directly through the company website, enhancing transparency and interaction.
- Conference Call Access: For those unable to join the webcast, the conference call can be accessed by dialing (888) 330-2384 and entering conference ID 6680883, ensuring broad dissemination of information to stakeholders.
- Company Overview: Murphy USA operates over 1,750 retail stores across 27 states, employing approximately 17,200 people and serving around 2 million customers daily, highlighting its strong influence in the convenience merchandise and fuel retail market.
See More
Murphy USA Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Competitive Pressure Analysis: CEO Mindy West highlighted that competitive pressures are impacting same-store sales, particularly in Texas where both volumes and margins are higher, while states like Colorado and Florida are still stabilizing, indicating the complexity of market dynamics.
- Maintenance Investment Returns: The company anticipates saving $6 million to $8 million in maintenance costs by proactively investing in aging equipment, a strategy that not only reduces future equipment failure risks but also enhances operational efficiency, ensuring long-term cost control.
- EBITDA Target Outlook: West reiterated that achieving the $1.2 billion EBITDA target by 2028 relies on store expansion and fuel market normalization, with 50 new stores expected to contribute $35 million to $40 million in EBITDA, reflecting the company's confidence in future growth.
- Market Outlook and Strategy: The 2026 outlook emphasizes the timing and scale impacts of the new store program, with over 50 new stores expected annually, and West stated that as market conditions change, investors will be surprised by the business's earnings power, indicating growth potential in a competitive landscape.
See More
Murphy USA Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations with Strong EPS Growth
- Earnings Beat: Murphy USA reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $7.53, exceeding expectations by $0.67, indicating strong profitability that may boost investor confidence in the company's financial health.
- Revenue Miss: The Q4 revenue of $4.74 billion, while up 0.6% year-over-year, fell short of expectations by $100 million, reflecting increased market competition and sales pressure that could impact future growth strategies.
- Fuel Contribution Improvement: The total fuel contribution for Q4 2025 was 34.3 cents per gallon, up from 32.5 cents per gallon in Q4 2024, suggesting improvements in fuel pricing and cost control that could enhance overall profit margins.
- Retail Volume Fluctuations: Total retail gallons increased by 3.1% in Q4 2025, yet same-store sales volumes declined by 0.6%, indicating market demand volatility that may prompt the company to reassess its market strategies to adapt to changes.
See More
Murphy USA Reports Strong Q4 and Full Year 2025 Financial Results
- Stable Net Income: Murphy USA reported a net income of $141.9 million for Q4 2025, translating to $7.53 per diluted share, which remained nearly flat compared to Q4 2024, demonstrating the company's resilience amid market volatility.
- Fuel Contribution Growth: The total fuel contribution for Q4 2025 reached $423.6 million, an 8.9% increase from the previous year, primarily driven by improved retail fuel margins and higher sales volumes, reflecting the company's ability to maintain profitability in a competitive market.
- Merchandise Sales Performance: For the full year 2025, merchandise contribution totaled $869 million, up 4.2% year-over-year, indicating ongoing improvements in merchandise sales and unit margins, which enhance overall profitability.
- Share Buybacks and Dividends: The company repurchased approximately 1.5 million shares for a total of $652 million in 2025, while also declaring a quarterly cash dividend of $0.63 per share, an 18.9% increase from September 2025, underscoring its commitment to shareholder returns.
See More
Murphy USA Scheduled to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 4
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Murphy USA is set to release its Q4 2023 earnings report on February 4 after market close, with consensus EPS estimates at $6.90, reflecting a 0.9% year-over-year decline, while revenue is projected at $4.84 billion, indicating a 2.8% year-over-year increase.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past year, Murphy USA has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time, yet has failed to meet revenue expectations, highlighting volatility in its profitability metrics.
- Expectation Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates have experienced one upward revision and seven downward revisions, indicating a cautious market outlook on the company's future performance.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Despite a recent decline in Murphy USA's stock price, its stability in earnings expectations and historical performance continues to attract investor attention, which may influence its future market performance.
See More
Murphy USA Inc. Dividend History and Volatility Assessment
- Dividend Yield Expectation: Murphy USA Inc.'s recent dividend yield stands at 0.6%, a figure that reflects the company's historical profitability fluctuations, indicating that the sustainability of future dividends remains a point of concern.
- Historical Volatility Analysis: With a trailing twelve-month volatility of 34% calculated from the last 251 trading days' closing prices, this high volatility may influence investors' decisions regarding dividends and options strategies.
- Options Trading Dynamics: On Friday, the put volume among S&P 500 components reached 1.53 million contracts, while call volume was at 2.57 million, indicating a preference for call options among investors, reflecting a positive market sentiment.
- Risk and Reward Assessment: When considering selling covered calls at a $530 strike price, investors must weigh the potential rewards against the risk of giving up upside beyond $530, ensuring the strategy's soundness.
See More
Murphy USA (MUSA) to Announce Q4 2025 Financial Results on February 4, 2026
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Murphy USA will release its Q4 2025 financial results after market close on February 4, 2026, providing pre-recorded management remarks that are expected to significantly impact investors.
- Live Q&A Session: Following the earnings release, a live Q&A session will take place at 10:00 a.m. CT on February 5, 2026, allowing investors to engage directly through the company website, enhancing transparency and interaction.
- Conference Call Access: For those unable to join the webcast, the conference call can be accessed by dialing (888) 330-2384 and entering conference ID 6680883, ensuring broad dissemination of information to stakeholders.
- Company Overview: Murphy USA operates over 1,750 retail stores across 27 states, employing approximately 17,200 people and serving around 2 million customers daily, highlighting its strong influence in the convenience merchandise and fuel retail market.
See More
