Should I Buy MUSA? MUSA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

377.890

1 Day change

-4.91%

52 Week Range

523.090

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/05

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: the stock is in a sharp downside move (-10.76% today) with bearish momentum still expanding.
While the drop has pushed MUSA toward oversold conditions and options positioning looks bullish, the chart suggests there’s still near-term downside risk into the next support zone.
Better setup would be after price stabilizes/reclaims key levels (at least back above ~403–427); without that confirmation, the risk/reward for an immediate buy is unattractive.

Technical Analysis

Trend/price action: Large selloff (-10.76%) has likely broken below key levels; current price (398.01) is below S1 (403.59) and below Pivot (426.73), indicating a bearish near-term regime.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-3.005) and negatively expanding → downside momentum is strengthening, not bottoming yet.
RSI: RSI(6)=27.98, which effectively signals short-term oversold/washed-out conditions; however, oversold can persist during breakdowns.
Key levels to watch:
- Support: S2 ~389.29 (next downside area if 398 fails)
- Resistance: S1 ~403.59 (first reclaim level), Pivot ~426.73 (trend reset level), then R1 ~449.87
Similar-pattern forward stats provided: slightly negative bias over 1 day/week (not supportive of immediate bounce follow-through).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are low (OI PCR 0.63; Volume PCR 0.11) → options flow/skew looks bullish (more call demand vs puts).
Volatility: 30D IV ~46.04 vs historical vol ~23.34; IV percentile ~97.21 → options are priced very rich (market expects big moves).
Activity: Today’s option volume (185) is ~370% of 30D average and OI is elevated → heightened event/earnings-related positioning.
Takeaway: Options sentiment leans bullish, but the very high IV suggests the market is still pricing instability rather than a clean low.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Earnings backdrop: Q4 GAAP EPS beat (7.53 vs expectations) with higher fuel margins; supports the long-side fundamental narrative.
- Capital returns: Repurchased ~1.5M shares and raised the dividend (shareholder-friendly).
- Institutional flow: Hedge funds are reported as buying aggressively quarter-over-quarter.
- Analyst actions: Multiple price target raises (KeyBanc, RBC, Wells, Stephens) following results/preview commentary.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Price/technical damage: The stock is experiencing a major single-day drawdown with bearish momentum expanding (MACD worsening), increasing near-term downside risk.
- Top-line miss: Revenue came in light (4.74B, short by ~$100M) despite EPS beat.
- Sector/industry concerns cited by analysts: Potential persistence of industry challenges near term; dependence on fuel/nicotine and softer consumer backdrop highlighted (notably by BofA’s Underperform initiation).
- No supportive proprietary timing signal today (AI Stock Picker / SwingMax both absent), reducing conviction for an immediate dip-buy.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4.
Revenue: 4.1427B, +0.24% YoY (essentially flat).
Net income: 141.9M, -0.42% YoY (slightly down).
EPS: 7.53, +8.19% YoY (growth driven more by margins/financial levers than topline).
Gross margin: 13.63, +5.91% YoY (constructive margin trend).
Overall: Quality of the quarter is mixed—strong EPS/margins and capital returns, but limited revenue growth and slightly lower net income.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Price targets have generally moved higher into/after Q4 (KeyBanc to $500; Stephens to $475; RBC to $467; Wells Fargo to $410), reflecting stronger fuel margin commentary and expectation of solid results.
Notable dissent: BofA initiated at Underperform with $405 PT, arguing near-term upside may lag peers due to fuel/nicotine dependence and consumer pressure.
Wall Street pros view:
- Pros: Strong fuel margin execution, stable demand history, ongoing buybacks/dividend increases.
- Cons: Near-term industry headwinds, consumer sensitivity, and business mix concentration; valuation/setup concerns after prior run-up.
Influential/political trading check: No recent Congress trading data available; insider trend is neutral (no major recent insider signal).

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MUSA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MUSA is 409.5 USD with a low forecast of 340 USD and a high forecast of 463 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

2 Hold

1 Sell

Hold

Current: 397.420

Low

340

Averages

409.5

High

463

Current: 397.420

Low

340

Averages

409.5

High

463

Stephens

Overweight

downgrade

$475 -> $450

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

Reason

Stephens

Price Target

$475 -> $450

AI Analysis

2026-02-06

New

downgrade

Overweight

Reason

Stephens lowered the firm's price target on Murphy USA to $450 from $475 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The company stated that it views 2026 as another low price, low volatility environment, but that it should be a transitional year, notes the analyst, who acknowledges near-term earnings growth may remain pressured, but continues to see compelling longer-term value.

RBC Capital

Sector Perform

downgrade

$467 -> $445

2026-02-05

New

Reason

RBC Capital

Price Target

$467 -> $445

2026-02-05

New

downgrade

Sector Perform

Reason

RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Murphy USA to $445 from $467 and keeps a Sector Perform rating on the shares. The company ended 2025 on a solid note, with results ahead of forecasts, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm is moderating its 2026/2027 EBITDA/EPS forecasts by 3%/6% to reflect ongoing pressure on volumes/margins, although it also believes that 2027 should see modest acceleration in earnings on contribution from new store openings.

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MUSA Should I Buy

MUSA Should I Buy

Should You Buy Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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