MicroStrategy Faces Potential MSCI Exclusion, Risking Up to $9 Billion in Demand
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 19 2025
0mins
Should l Buy MSTR?
Source: Newsfilter
- Potential Exclusion Impact: MSCI's proposal to exclude companies with digital assets over 50% could lead to MicroStrategy facing up to $9 billion in demand loss, severely impacting its market appeal.
- Market Value Fluctuation: Analysts estimate that $2.5 billion of MicroStrategy's market value is derived from MSCI, and exclusion could trigger $2.8 billion in stock outflows, exacerbating the company's financial strain.
- Industry Reaction: The MSCI proposal has sparked widespread concern, with expectations that other index providers may follow suit, potentially 'chilling' the entire digital asset treasury sector.
- Passive Investment Impact: Passive asset managers hold about 30% of a large-cap company's free float, and exclusion from MSCI could trigger significant outflows, affecting MicroStrategy's funding capabilities and competitive position.
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Analyst Views on MSTR
Wall Street analysts forecast MSTR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MSTR is 453.17 USD with a low forecast of 229.00 USD and a high forecast of 705.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 134.930
Low
229.00
Averages
453.17
High
705.00
Current: 134.930
Low
229.00
Averages
453.17
High
705.00
About MSTR
Strategy Inc., formerly MicroStrategy Incorporated, is a bitcoin treasury and business intelligence company. The Company provides cloud-native, artificial intelligence (AI)-powered enterprise analytics software to thousands of global customers. The Company’s Strategy ONE platform provides access to AI-powered workflows, unlimited data sources, cloud-native technologies, and performance to speed up time from data to action. Strategy One delivers visualization, reporting, and embedded analytics capabilities across retail, banking, technology, manufacturing, insurance, consulting, healthcare, telecommunications, and the public sector. Its Strategy Mosaic is a universal intelligence layer that provides enterprises with consistent definitions and governance across data sources, regardless of where that data resides or which tools access it. The Strategy Mosaic offers data clarity and connection by eliminating trade-offs between flexibility, control, and speed.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Earnings Revive Dilution Concerns: Strategy's Q4 results revealed a significant loss primarily due to unrealized Bitcoin markdowns, raising investor concerns about the funding of future Bitcoin purchases, which led to a 2.43% pre-market drop in MSTR shares to $131.63.
- Bitcoin Stress Test Scenario: CEO Phong Le outlined a worst-case scenario where Bitcoin would need to plummet to $8,000, equating the company's Bitcoin reserves with net debt, potentially necessitating restructuring or additional equity issuance, which poses a threat to investor confidence.
- Long-Term Outlook and Historical Context: Le noted past Bitcoin drawdowns of 75%, yet remains optimistic about Bitcoin's future, predicting it could reach $1 million within seven years, indicating the company's resilience to market fluctuations.
- Market Sentiment Shift: Despite Bitcoin's 0.9% decline to $69,843 over 24 hours, retail sentiment on Stockwits remained neutral, with discussion levels rising from 'extremely low' to 'extremely high', reflecting increasing market interest in Bitcoin.
See More
Strategy Inc. Continues Bitcoin Accumulation
- Continued Bitcoin Purchases: Strategy Inc. acquired $90 million worth of Bitcoin in the week ending February 8, an increase from $75 million the previous week, indicating ongoing confidence in Bitcoin investment.
- Holding Position Update: As of February 8, Strategy holds 714,644 BTC at an average purchase price of approximately $76,000, totaling an investment of $54.35 billion, reflecting a significant commitment to the cryptocurrency market.
- Stock Price Volatility: During the Bitcoin purchasing period, Strategy's shares fell 4.22% pre-market on Monday to $129.23, suggesting market caution regarding its Bitcoin investment strategy.
- Funding Source Analysis: The Bitcoin purchases were funded through the sale of 616,715 Class A shares, indicating an active capital management strategy to support its cryptocurrency investments.
See More
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- Crisis of Confidence: Bernstein analysts highlight that the current 50% drop in Bitcoin reflects a crisis of confidence rather than structural damage, labeling this downturn as the weakest bear case in history, indicating that market confidence in Bitcoin remains intact.
- Policy Support and Institutional Involvement: With a pro-Bitcoin U.S. president in office, successful ETF trading, and major companies incorporating Bitcoin into their balance sheets, the current market environment provides stronger support for Bitcoin compared to previous bear markets.
- Technical Support and Market Dynamics: Bitcoin is currently testing the critical support level of $73,375, and if this fails, it could face a dangerous air pocket with major support not appearing until $62,000-$65,000, with analysts noting that the market needs to reclaim $81,000-$82,000 to reverse the current downtrend.
- Future Growth Potential: Bernstein's $150,000 price target implies a 119% upside from current levels, with expectations that improved liquidity conditions and institutional adoption will help overcome the confidence crisis and drive Bitcoin prices higher.
See More
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- Bitcoin Acquisition: Strategy announced the purchase of 1,142 Bitcoins at an average price of $78,815 for a total of $90 million between February 2 and February 8, demonstrating the company's commitment to investing during market downturns.
- Funding Source: The acquisition was financed by selling 616,715 shares of Class A common stock, generating $89.5 million in net proceeds, indicating the company's flexibility in capital management and long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin.
- Current Holdings: As of February 8, Strategy holds 714,644 Bitcoins with an aggregate purchase cost of $54.35 billion and an average cost basis of $76,056, reflecting a significant investment in the cryptocurrency market.
- Market Outlook: Despite reporting a $12.4 billion loss in Q4, the CEO remains optimistic about Bitcoin's future, predicting it could reach $1 million in seven years, showcasing the company's confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin.
See More
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- Massive Earnings: Since November 2024, World Liberty Financial has generated at least $1.4 billion for the Trump and Witkoff families, surpassing the total earnings of Trump's real estate empire over eight years, highlighting its significant impact in the financial sector.
- Cash Flow and Paper Gains: According to the Wall Street Journal, the Trump family earned at least $1.2 billion in cash and $2.25 billion in paper gains from crypto holdings over 16 months, while the Witkoffs earned at least $200 million, indicating the company's successful operations in the crypto market.
- Ownership Structure and Fund Flow: 75% of WLFI token sales flow directly to a Trump entity, with 12.5% to the Witkoff family and 12.5% to co-founders, as Trump holds a 70% stake in that entity, demonstrating his dominant position within the company.
- Abu Dhabi Deal Accelerates Earnings: The Sheikh of Abu Dhabi purchased 49% of World Liberty for $500 million, providing the Trump family with $187 million in immediate liquidity, further strengthening their financial position and boosting market confidence.
See More
Strategy Reports Q4 Revenue Beat, Stock Futures Lower
- Revenue Beat: Strategy reported fourth-quarter revenue of $122.99 million after Thursday's close, surpassing analyst expectations of $118.48 million, indicating strong market performance that may attract more investor interest.
- Earnings Growth: The company posted adjusted earnings of $16.37 per share, exceeding analyst estimates of $10.96 per share, demonstrating significant improvement in profitability that could lay the groundwork for future growth.
- Stock Price Decline: Despite the revenue and earnings beats, Strategy's stock dipped 4.8% to $128.36 in pre-market trading, reflecting market concerns about the overall economic environment, which may impact investor confidence.
- Market Trends: U.S. stock futures were lower, with Nasdaq 100 futures falling around 100 points, indicating cautious market sentiment that could pressure tech stocks and influence overall investment strategies.
See More
