Market Comparison of UPS and FedEx
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2d ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Revenue Growth Comparison: FedEx achieved a 6.8% year-over-year revenue growth in the latest quarter, while UPS experienced a 3.3% decline, highlighting FedEx's clear advantage in market share and revenue growth.
- Strategic Adjustments: FedEx is spinning off its freight segment to focus on ground and air shipments, with CEO Raj Subramaniam stating successful execution of its growth strategy, whereas UPS is shrinking to enhance profit margins, resulting in lost market share.
- Layoff Impact: UPS plans to lay off 30,000 workers in response to reduced Amazon shipment volumes, which may boost average revenue per delivery but will significantly hinder revenue growth in the short term.
- Profit Margin Changes: FedEx's net income grew by 29% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, while UPS only saw a 4.1% increase, indicating FedEx's leading position in margin expansion despite UPS's higher valuation.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy FDX?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on FDX
Wall Street analysts forecast FDX stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FDX is 315.05 USD with a low forecast of 210.00 USD and a high forecast of 365.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 363.960
Low
210.00
Averages
315.05
High
365.00
Current: 363.960
Low
210.00
Averages
315.05
High
365.00
About FDX
FedEx Corporation provides customers and businesses with a portfolio of transportation, e-commerce, and business services. The Company offers integrated business solutions utilizing its flexible and efficient global network. Its segments include Federal Express, FedEx Freight, and Corporate, other, and eliminations. Federal Express segment includes express transportation, small-package ground delivery, and freight transportation, and it also operates combined sales, marketing, administrative, and information-technology functions in shared service operations for United States customers. FedEx Freight segment includes FedEx Freight (LTL freight transportation) and FedEx Custom Critical (time-critical transportation). Corporate, other, and elimination segments include FedEx Dataworks, Inc. (FedEx Dataworks), FedEx Office and Print Services, Inc. (FedEx Office), and FedEx Logistics, Inc. (FedEx Logistics). FedEx Logistics offers customs brokerage, specialty transportation, and others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
AI-Exposed Stocks Face Challenges Amid Market Shift
- Market Sentiment Shift: As fears grow that artificial intelligence could disrupt demand rather than enhance it, software and AI-exposed stocks have faced significant sell-offs at the start of 2023, particularly in February, leading investors to reassess their risk exposure.
- Capital Flow Changes: Goldman Sachs equity strategist Ben Snider indicates that capital is rotating towards sectors perceived as insulated from AI disruption, marking a clear departure from last year's market strategies and reflecting diminished investor confidence in AI themes.
- Cyclical Industry Rally: Despite software stocks experiencing one of their worst weeks since the 2022 rate-hike panic, cyclical and consumer-linked industries have continued their recent rallies, indicating a growing preference for traditional sectors among investors.
- Strong Dow Jones Performance: Amid the decline in software stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied towards all-time highs, suggesting increased investor confidence in industries tied to physical assets and cyclical activity, further emphasizing the market's demand for safety from AI-driven productivity risks.
See More
SkyWest Reports Strong Q4 Earnings Exceeding Expectations
- Strong Performance: SkyWest reported a Q4 2025 GAAP EPS of $2.21, exceeding estimates by $0.13, indicating robust profitability growth for the company.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved $1.02 billion in revenue for Q4, an 8% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by nearly $28.5 million, reflecting solid performance in the regional airline sector.
- Annual Net Income Increase: For the full year 2025, SkyWest reported a net income of $428 million, or $10.35 per diluted share, marking a nearly 33% increase from last year's $323 million, showcasing sustained profitability growth potential.
- Investment Outlook: Despite SkyWest's strong performance, analysts suggest that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk, prompting investors to consider alternative investment opportunities.
See More
FedEx Shares Surge 13.3% Amid Analyst Upgrade and Market Shift
- Stock Surge: FedEx shares soared 13.3% this week, reaching $364.17 by midday Friday, with a year-to-date increase of over 26%, significantly outperforming the Dow Jones Transportation Index, reflecting strong market optimism about its future performance.
- Analyst Upgrade: UBS analyst Thomas Wadewitz maintained a 'buy' rating on FedEx and raised the price target from $314 to $412, representing a more than 30% increase, which implies an additional 12% upside from Thursday's closing price, further boosting investor confidence.
- Investor Day Announcement: FedEx is set to hold its 2026 Investor Day on February 12, where it is expected to unveil a multi-year plan that may include pathways to higher margins; analysts believe this will involve cost reductions, improved pricing, and sustainable revenue growth, indicating significant future growth potential.
- Market Shift to Industrials: This week, investors shifted from high-flying tech stocks to industrial names, benefiting FedEx's performance and indicating a renewed focus on traditional transportation and logistics sectors, which could present more investment opportunities for the company.
See More
Market Comparison of UPS and FedEx
- Revenue Growth Comparison: FedEx achieved a 6.8% year-over-year revenue growth in the latest quarter, while UPS experienced a 3.3% decline, highlighting FedEx's clear advantage in market share and revenue growth.
- Strategic Adjustments: FedEx is spinning off its freight segment to focus on ground and air shipments, with CEO Raj Subramaniam stating successful execution of its growth strategy, whereas UPS is shrinking to enhance profit margins, resulting in lost market share.
- Layoff Impact: UPS plans to lay off 30,000 workers in response to reduced Amazon shipment volumes, which may boost average revenue per delivery but will significantly hinder revenue growth in the short term.
- Profit Margin Changes: FedEx's net income grew by 29% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, while UPS only saw a 4.1% increase, indicating FedEx's leading position in margin expansion despite UPS's higher valuation.
See More
FedEx Launches AI Post-Purchase Tools
- AI Tool Launch: FedEx has introduced AI-powered post-purchase tools, FedEx Tracking+ and FedEx Returns+, aimed at enhancing digital tracking and returns management across its global network, thereby improving customer experience and satisfaction.
- Strong Market Performance: Currently trading at $353.43, FedEx's stock has risen 13.1% over the past week, 20.6% over the past month, and 44.2% over the past year, indicating robust market demand and investor confidence.
- Strategic Implications: The launch of these new tools signifies FedEx's commitment to data-driven services, aiming to deepen relationships with e-commerce customers, particularly in the high-friction post-checkout phase, thus enhancing its competitive edge in the e-commerce logistics market.
- Financial Considerations: While the investment in new technology may yield long-term benefits, FedEx's high debt levels raise concerns among investors regarding its financial health, especially in balancing technology spending with balance sheet commitments.
See More
US Stocks Close Lower as Tech Sector Retreats
- Market Decline: The S&P 500 index fell by 0.84%, the Dow Jones by 0.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 1.55%, indicating a sharp sell-off after reaching record highs, which negatively impacted investor sentiment.
- Tech Sector Retreat: Data service and software stocks plummeted following the release of an automation tool by AI firm Anthropic, with Thomson Reuters and EPAM Systems down over 15% and 13% respectively, reflecting a loss of confidence in tech stocks.
- Precious Metals Rally: Gold prices surged over 6% and silver over 8%, leading to gains in mining stocks, with Hecla Mining and Freeport McMoRan rising more than 8% and 6% respectively, indicating increased demand for safe-haven assets.
- Economic Outlook Improvement: Richmond Fed President noted an improving US economic outlook despite ongoing risks, with markets focusing on upcoming economic data and the passage of a spending bill to gauge future economic trends.
See More
AI-Exposed Stocks Face Challenges Amid Market Shift
- Market Sentiment Shift: As fears grow that artificial intelligence could disrupt demand rather than enhance it, software and AI-exposed stocks have faced significant sell-offs at the start of 2023, particularly in February, leading investors to reassess their risk exposure.
- Capital Flow Changes: Goldman Sachs equity strategist Ben Snider indicates that capital is rotating towards sectors perceived as insulated from AI disruption, marking a clear departure from last year's market strategies and reflecting diminished investor confidence in AI themes.
- Cyclical Industry Rally: Despite software stocks experiencing one of their worst weeks since the 2022 rate-hike panic, cyclical and consumer-linked industries have continued their recent rallies, indicating a growing preference for traditional sectors among investors.
- Strong Dow Jones Performance: Amid the decline in software stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied towards all-time highs, suggesting increased investor confidence in industries tied to physical assets and cyclical activity, further emphasizing the market's demand for safety from AI-driven productivity risks.
See More
SkyWest Reports Strong Q4 Earnings Exceeding Expectations
- Strong Performance: SkyWest reported a Q4 2025 GAAP EPS of $2.21, exceeding estimates by $0.13, indicating robust profitability growth for the company.
- Revenue Growth: The company achieved $1.02 billion in revenue for Q4, an 8% year-over-year increase, surpassing market expectations by nearly $28.5 million, reflecting solid performance in the regional airline sector.
- Annual Net Income Increase: For the full year 2025, SkyWest reported a net income of $428 million, or $10.35 per diluted share, marking a nearly 33% increase from last year's $323 million, showcasing sustained profitability growth potential.
- Investment Outlook: Despite SkyWest's strong performance, analysts suggest that certain AI stocks may offer greater upside potential and lower downside risk, prompting investors to consider alternative investment opportunities.
See More
FedEx Shares Surge 13.3% Amid Analyst Upgrade and Market Shift
- Stock Surge: FedEx shares soared 13.3% this week, reaching $364.17 by midday Friday, with a year-to-date increase of over 26%, significantly outperforming the Dow Jones Transportation Index, reflecting strong market optimism about its future performance.
- Analyst Upgrade: UBS analyst Thomas Wadewitz maintained a 'buy' rating on FedEx and raised the price target from $314 to $412, representing a more than 30% increase, which implies an additional 12% upside from Thursday's closing price, further boosting investor confidence.
- Investor Day Announcement: FedEx is set to hold its 2026 Investor Day on February 12, where it is expected to unveil a multi-year plan that may include pathways to higher margins; analysts believe this will involve cost reductions, improved pricing, and sustainable revenue growth, indicating significant future growth potential.
- Market Shift to Industrials: This week, investors shifted from high-flying tech stocks to industrial names, benefiting FedEx's performance and indicating a renewed focus on traditional transportation and logistics sectors, which could present more investment opportunities for the company.
See More
Market Comparison of UPS and FedEx
- Revenue Growth Comparison: FedEx achieved a 6.8% year-over-year revenue growth in the latest quarter, while UPS experienced a 3.3% decline, highlighting FedEx's clear advantage in market share and revenue growth.
- Strategic Adjustments: FedEx is spinning off its freight segment to focus on ground and air shipments, with CEO Raj Subramaniam stating successful execution of its growth strategy, whereas UPS is shrinking to enhance profit margins, resulting in lost market share.
- Layoff Impact: UPS plans to lay off 30,000 workers in response to reduced Amazon shipment volumes, which may boost average revenue per delivery but will significantly hinder revenue growth in the short term.
- Profit Margin Changes: FedEx's net income grew by 29% year-over-year in the most recent quarter, while UPS only saw a 4.1% increase, indicating FedEx's leading position in margin expansion despite UPS's higher valuation.
See More
FedEx Launches AI Post-Purchase Tools
- AI Tool Launch: FedEx has introduced AI-powered post-purchase tools, FedEx Tracking+ and FedEx Returns+, aimed at enhancing digital tracking and returns management across its global network, thereby improving customer experience and satisfaction.
- Strong Market Performance: Currently trading at $353.43, FedEx's stock has risen 13.1% over the past week, 20.6% over the past month, and 44.2% over the past year, indicating robust market demand and investor confidence.
- Strategic Implications: The launch of these new tools signifies FedEx's commitment to data-driven services, aiming to deepen relationships with e-commerce customers, particularly in the high-friction post-checkout phase, thus enhancing its competitive edge in the e-commerce logistics market.
- Financial Considerations: While the investment in new technology may yield long-term benefits, FedEx's high debt levels raise concerns among investors regarding its financial health, especially in balancing technology spending with balance sheet commitments.
See More
US Stocks Close Lower as Tech Sector Retreats
- Market Decline: The S&P 500 index fell by 0.84%, the Dow Jones by 0.34%, and the Nasdaq 100 by 1.55%, indicating a sharp sell-off after reaching record highs, which negatively impacted investor sentiment.
- Tech Sector Retreat: Data service and software stocks plummeted following the release of an automation tool by AI firm Anthropic, with Thomson Reuters and EPAM Systems down over 15% and 13% respectively, reflecting a loss of confidence in tech stocks.
- Precious Metals Rally: Gold prices surged over 6% and silver over 8%, leading to gains in mining stocks, with Hecla Mining and Freeport McMoRan rising more than 8% and 6% respectively, indicating increased demand for safe-haven assets.
- Economic Outlook Improvement: Richmond Fed President noted an improving US economic outlook despite ongoing risks, with markets focusing on upcoming economic data and the passage of a spending bill to gauge future economic trends.
See More
