Macau's October Gaming Revenue Recovers After Disappointing Golden Week
Macau Casino Revenue Surge: Macau's casinos reported a 15.9% increase in revenue for October, reaching MOP24.09B ($3.1B), surpassing analysts' expectations of an 11.7% rise, despite a challenging Golden Week affected by a typhoon and competing events in Singapore.
Impact of Typhoon and Events: The Golden Week was initially promising but was hindered by Typhoon Matmo and the Singapore Grand Prix, which diverted Chinese tourists, highlighting the challenges faced by the tourism sector during this period.
Resilience of Chinese Tourism: The rebound in casino revenue post-Golden Week reflects the resilience of the Chinese tourism industry and ongoing efforts to ease travel restrictions to Macau, indicating a potential recovery in the sector.
Future Prospects for Tourism: Upcoming sporting events in Hong Kong, Macau, and mainland China, such as NBA preseason games and the 15th National Games, are expected to further boost tourism and casino revenues in the region.
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- Significant Stock Drop: Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:LVS) saw its shares plummet by 13.96% on Thursday, closing at $52.71, as investors reacted negatively to weak performance in its Macau operations amid China's crackdown on high-rolling gamblers.
- Slight EBITDA Decline: For the full year 2025, adjusted EBITDA from Macau dipped to $2.31 billion from $2.33 billion, although the fourth quarter showed a 6.5% increase to $608 million, indicating short-term business fluctuations.
- Revenue Growth: Despite the overall EBITDA decline, Macau's revenue increased by 5% in 2025 to $7.47 billion, with fourth-quarter revenue surging by 16% to $2.06 billion year-on-year, reflecting resilience in market demand.
- Net Income Increase: Las Vegas Sands reported a 12% rise in attributable net income for 2025 to $1.627 billion, with fourth-quarter net income jumping 22% to $395 million, showcasing the company's enhanced profitability amid adversity.
Big Tech Earnings: Investors are analyzing the earnings results from major companies like Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Tesla, with Apple also contributing to the earnings discussions.
Government Spending Agreement: The Senate and White House have reached a spending agreement, which appears to resolve the potential for another government shutdown.
- Earnings Beat: Las Vegas Sands reported net revenue of $3.65 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations of $3.33 billion, yet the stock plummeted due to other concerns.
- Profitability Improvement: The company's net income rose 14% to $395 million under GAAP, with adjusted earnings per share increasing from $0.54 to $0.85, indicating enhanced profitability.
- Weak EBITDA Performance: Despite revenue growth, the adjusted EBITDA from its Macao resorts was $608 million, only a 6% increase year-over-year, significantly lower than the $806 million generated by Marina Bay Sands, raising investor alarms.
- Changing Market Dynamics: With Chinese authorities imposing restrictions on high-roller gamblers, Las Vegas Sands is forced to focus on lower-margin markets, presenting long-term profitability challenges and leading to bearish investor sentiment.
- Microsoft's Disappointing Earnings: Microsoft shares plummeted over 10% due to underwhelming growth in its cloud business and higher-than-expected expenses, putting pressure on the overall market, particularly tech stocks.
- Meta's Strong Rebound: Meta Platforms' stock surged more than 10% after reporting Q4 revenue of $59.89 billion, exceeding expectations, with Q1 revenue forecasted between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, significantly above the $51.27 billion consensus.
- Energy Stocks Benefit: WTI crude oil prices jumped over 3% to a 4.25-month high as President Trump called for negotiations with Iran on a nuclear deal, boosting energy producers' stock prices.
- Economic Data Impact: US weekly initial unemployment claims fell to 209,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market, while continuing claims dropped to 1.827 million, showing a stronger labor market, influencing market sentiment.
- Earnings Beat: Las Vegas Sands reported adjusted EPS of $0.85 for Q4, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $0.76, with sales hitting $3.649 billion, exceeding the forecast of $3.328 billion, showcasing resilience in a challenging economic environment.
- Negative Market Reaction: Despite strong earnings, concerns over declining profitability in the Macao unit led to a significant sell-off in LVS stock, reflecting investor worries about the shift away from high-margin VIP patrons to a mass market clientele.
- Options Market Signals: Even with the stock's decline, smart money is paying a premium for upside options, indicating that market participants remain optimistic about a potential rebound, as both ITM and OTM calls reflect varying degrees of upside optionality.
- Future Price Expectations: According to the Black-Scholes model, LVS stock is expected to fluctuate between $50 and $57 over the next 10 weeks, with the highest probability density around $53 to $54, suggesting that the market still anticipates a rebound.

- U.S. Stock Market Performance: Stock indexes in the U.S. ended the day mixed on Thursday.
- Index Movements: The S&P 500 increased by 0.11%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.13%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.72%.










