Macau casinos prep for strong Chinese New Year traffic
Chinese New Year 2025 and Macau's Casino Impact: The Chinese New Year on January 29, 2025, marks the Year of the Snake, with an 8-day holiday period crucial for Macau's casinos, which expect increased revenue and tourism from Mainland China. Analysts report positive trends, with luxury hotels already sold out for part of the holiday.
Market Performance and Stock Insights: Last year's strong tourist data led to a surge in Macau casino operator shares, while concerns remain regarding leverage and capital expenditures for companies like Melco Resorts, amidst ongoing developments such as Las Vegas Sands' stock valuation adjustments and expansion plans into Thailand.
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- Significant Stock Drop: Las Vegas Sands Corp. (NYSE:LVS) saw its shares plummet by 13.96% on Thursday, closing at $52.71, as investors reacted negatively to weak performance in its Macau operations amid China's crackdown on high-rolling gamblers.
- Slight EBITDA Decline: For the full year 2025, adjusted EBITDA from Macau dipped to $2.31 billion from $2.33 billion, although the fourth quarter showed a 6.5% increase to $608 million, indicating short-term business fluctuations.
- Revenue Growth: Despite the overall EBITDA decline, Macau's revenue increased by 5% in 2025 to $7.47 billion, with fourth-quarter revenue surging by 16% to $2.06 billion year-on-year, reflecting resilience in market demand.
- Net Income Increase: Las Vegas Sands reported a 12% rise in attributable net income for 2025 to $1.627 billion, with fourth-quarter net income jumping 22% to $395 million, showcasing the company's enhanced profitability amid adversity.
Big Tech Earnings: Investors are analyzing the earnings results from major companies like Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Tesla, with Apple also contributing to the earnings discussions.
Government Spending Agreement: The Senate and White House have reached a spending agreement, which appears to resolve the potential for another government shutdown.
- Earnings Beat: Las Vegas Sands reported net revenue of $3.65 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, surpassing analyst expectations of $3.33 billion, yet the stock plummeted due to other concerns.
- Profitability Improvement: The company's net income rose 14% to $395 million under GAAP, with adjusted earnings per share increasing from $0.54 to $0.85, indicating enhanced profitability.
- Weak EBITDA Performance: Despite revenue growth, the adjusted EBITDA from its Macao resorts was $608 million, only a 6% increase year-over-year, significantly lower than the $806 million generated by Marina Bay Sands, raising investor alarms.
- Changing Market Dynamics: With Chinese authorities imposing restrictions on high-roller gamblers, Las Vegas Sands is forced to focus on lower-margin markets, presenting long-term profitability challenges and leading to bearish investor sentiment.
- Microsoft's Disappointing Earnings: Microsoft shares plummeted over 10% due to underwhelming growth in its cloud business and higher-than-expected expenses, putting pressure on the overall market, particularly tech stocks.
- Meta's Strong Rebound: Meta Platforms' stock surged more than 10% after reporting Q4 revenue of $59.89 billion, exceeding expectations, with Q1 revenue forecasted between $53.5 billion and $56.5 billion, significantly above the $51.27 billion consensus.
- Energy Stocks Benefit: WTI crude oil prices jumped over 3% to a 4.25-month high as President Trump called for negotiations with Iran on a nuclear deal, boosting energy producers' stock prices.
- Economic Data Impact: US weekly initial unemployment claims fell to 209,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market, while continuing claims dropped to 1.827 million, showing a stronger labor market, influencing market sentiment.
- Earnings Beat: Las Vegas Sands reported adjusted EPS of $0.85 for Q4, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $0.76, with sales hitting $3.649 billion, exceeding the forecast of $3.328 billion, showcasing resilience in a challenging economic environment.
- Negative Market Reaction: Despite strong earnings, concerns over declining profitability in the Macao unit led to a significant sell-off in LVS stock, reflecting investor worries about the shift away from high-margin VIP patrons to a mass market clientele.
- Options Market Signals: Even with the stock's decline, smart money is paying a premium for upside options, indicating that market participants remain optimistic about a potential rebound, as both ITM and OTM calls reflect varying degrees of upside optionality.
- Future Price Expectations: According to the Black-Scholes model, LVS stock is expected to fluctuate between $50 and $57 over the next 10 weeks, with the highest probability density around $53 to $54, suggesting that the market still anticipates a rebound.

- U.S. Stock Market Performance: Stock indexes in the U.S. ended the day mixed on Thursday.
- Index Movements: The S&P 500 increased by 0.11%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.13%, and the Nasdaq fell by 0.72%.










