M&A Update: BHP Abandons Pursuit of Anglo American Acquisition
BHP's Acquisition Attempt: BHP Group Limited has withdrawn its bid to acquire Anglo American PLC, aiming to enhance its copper leadership, just weeks before a merger vote between Anglo and Teck Resources.
Market Reaction: Following the announcement, BHP's shares rose by 0.62% in Australia, indicating a positive market response despite the failed acquisition attempt.
Strategic Considerations: BHP believes that a merger with Anglo American would have been beneficial for shareholders, but it remains focused on independent growth after previous failed attempts due to regulatory concerns.
Context of the Merger: The planned merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources is significant, expected to produce 1.2 million tons of copper annually, amidst rising global demand driven by electric vehicles and clean energy initiatives.
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- Global Mineral Cooperation Agreement: The US and EU committed to a deal within 30 days to identify cooperation areas, stimulate demand, and diversify critical mineral supply, aiming to prevent supply chain disruptions and promote research and innovation, reflecting the strategic collaboration of three major economies in global mineral supply chains.
- Current Control of Critical Minerals: China controls 60% to 90% of the global critical mineral processing market, particularly in missile defense and energy infrastructure, which creates vulnerabilities for the US and its allies, compelling them to take action to ensure supply security.
- US Policy Shift: President Trump launched the $12 billion Project Vault to stockpile critical minerals, while Congress passed the Critical Mineral Dominance Act, marking a significant step in breaking China's control over mineral supply chains and expected to boost domestic mining and refining sectors.
- Surge in Copper Demand: Copper demand is projected to rise by 50% to 42 million metric tons by 2040, while supply is expected to decline by 7%, leading to a 10 million ton shortfall, particularly driven by emerging technologies like AI and electric vehicles, intensifying the demand for copper.
- Merger Potential: Citi analysts upgraded Anglo American's rating from Neutral to Buy, raising the price target from £33 to £45, believing that the merger with Teck to form AngloTeck will create a top-tier copper producer, with the market underestimating its 80% copper earnings exposure.
- EBITDA Growth Expectations: Analysts anticipate that operational normalization at key assets could add $1.2 billion in EBITDA, while organic growth from the Collahuasi and Quellaveco copper assets could contribute an additional $1.4 billion in EBITDA over the next 5-7 years, significantly enhancing the company's profitability.
- Strategic Synergies: The Los Bronces-Andina copper joint venture is expected to unlock over $5 billion in value through synergies and capital deferral, significantly boosting Anglo American's net present value, while the Minas Rio iron ore joint venture has the potential to double production capacity and reduce unit costs, generating an estimated $4 billion NPV.
- Positive Market Reaction: Citi also upgraded Teck's rating to Buy with a price target of C$104, anticipating that the merger will proceed on current terms, further solidifying Anglo American's leading position among global diversified miners.
- Rating Upgrade: Goldman Sachs upgrades Futu Holdings from Neutral to Buy with a target price of $213.39, implying a 29% upside, reflecting a positive outlook on the Chinese wealth management market and a reassessment of Futu's new client growth.
- Market Outlook: Bank of America reiterates its Buy rating on Nvidia with a target price of $275, based on a 28x CY27E PE, indicating Nvidia's leading position in the fast-growing AI compute and networking markets, despite concerns over global AI project volatility and cyclical gaming market issues.
- M&A Potential: Citi upgrades Teck Resources to Buy, highlighting the transformative merger with Anglo American that will create a top-tier copper producer with 80% earnings exposure to copper, showcasing strategic industry consolidation.
- Stock Performance: BTIG upgrades McDonald's to Buy, noting that changes in value and promotions strategy are consistently driving traffic growth, indicating the company's adaptability and growth potential in the competitive fast-food market.

- Market Opening: U.S. stock markets are set to open in two hours.
- Unity Software Inc. Performance: Unity Software Inc. (U) saw a 6.6% increase in pre-market trading.
- Energy Fuels Inc. Performance: Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU) experienced a 5.2% rise in pre-market trading.
- Overall Market Sentiment: The pre-market gains indicate a positive sentiment ahead of the market opening.
- Surge in Demand: The demand for copper is being driven by electric vehicles, AI data centers, grid upgrades, and renewables, with a projected need to mine as much copper in the next 18 years as in the last 10,000 years, reaching 30 million tonnes annually, indicating a structural bull case for the copper market.
- Investor Confidence: Billionaire investors like Stanley Druckenmiller and Chamath Palihapitiya assert that copper shortages are inevitable, with electrification expected to cause prices to go 'parabolic', prompting investors to position themselves through mining companies and ETFs.
- Supply Challenges: New mines require 10 to 20 years to permit and build, while ore grades are declining and capital expenditures have lagged over the past decade, creating a severe supply-demand imbalance that cannot keep pace with rising demand.
- Structural Pricing: The consensus among Druckenmiller, Palihapitiya, and Friedland indicates that the copper market is not merely a cyclical trade but is facing a structural repricing trend, urging investors to focus on long-term investment opportunities.

Market Opening: U.S. stock markets are set to open in two hours.
Regencell Bioscience Holdings Ltd.: The stock was up 11.0% in pre-market trading.
SLM Corp.: The stock experienced a rise of 7.9% in pre-market trading.









