TECK Should I Buy
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TECK is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The stock just suffered a sharp -7.80% regular-session drop (and was weaker again pre-market), and the current price (~53.75) is below the key pivot (54.75), implying momentum has turned tactical-bearish in the very near term despite a still-bullish longer-term moving-average structure. With no Intellectia buy signal (AI Stock Picker/SwingMax) and earnings coming on 2026-02-20, the near-term setup is more “wait for stabilization/confirmation” than “buy immediately.”
Price/Trend: TECK is trading around 53.75 post-market after a large single-day decline (-7.80% regular session), which typically signals near-term risk of follow-through selling or choppy consolidation. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.265) but “positively contracting,” meaning bullish momentum is fading rather than strengthening. RSI: RSI(6) ~48.6 is neutral—no oversold bounce signal yet. Moving averages: Bullish alignment (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the broader trend has been constructive, but the stock is currently below the pivot (54.75), indicating the short-term trend is pressured. Key levels: Pivot 54.75 (near-term reclaim needed to improve the setup). Support S1 ~50.56 (next likely downside magnet if selling resumes); deeper support S2 ~47.97. Resistance levels: R1 ~58.95, R2 ~61.54. Pattern/stat model: Similar-pattern analysis shows ~50% chance of a small negative next day (-0.14%) and -1.52% over a week, with a better 1-month bias (+4.5%), consistent with “near-term shaky, medium-term constructive.”
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Copper supercycle/structural demand narrative: News flow highlights accelerating copper demand from EVs, AI data centers, grid upgrades, and renewables, with expectations of long-duration supply deficits.
Supply constraints: Long permitting/build timelines and declining ore grades support a “structural repricing” thesis for copper, which is favorable for copper-exposed miners like TECK.
Analyst targets trending up (recent): Multiple firms raised price targets (e.g., Scotiabank, Canaccord), indicating improving medium-term valuation expectations even when ratings are cautious.
on 2026-02-20 pre-market can act as a volatility catalyst; with IV already elevated, the stock may stay unstable into the print.
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: 3.385B, up +18.44% YoY (top-line growth positive). Profitability: Net income 281M, down -140.20% YoY; EPS 0.57, down -142.22% YoY (sharp deterioration in earnings power year-over-year). Margins: Gross margin 19.5%, up +16.63% YoY (gross margin improved, but it did not translate into higher bottom-line profit in the period). Summary: Growth on revenue/margin is constructive, but the steep YoY drops in net income/EPS weaken the “buy immediately” case until profitability stabilizes or the market clearly re-prices copper exposure higher.
Recent trend: Price targets have generally moved up, but ratings have tilted more cautious. TD Securities downgraded to Hold (from Buy) while even raising its target, implying limited upside near term and a range-bound expectation. Scotiabank raised its target (C$70→C$75) but stays Sector Perform; Canaccord raised target but stays Hold; JPMorgan remains Neutral; Deutsche Bank maintains a Buy. Wall Street pros (bull case): Leverage to copper upside and structural demand/supply imbalance; multiple target raises suggest improving medium-term value if copper stays strong. Wall Street cons (bear/base case): Broadly “Hold/Neutral” stance implies upside may be capped or slow to realize; transaction/merger overhang (Anglo-related) and expectations of a range-bound tape reduce urgency to buy after a big down day. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider activity described as Neutral with no notable recent trend.
