M Stanley Report: CN Tourism Sector Shows Robust Recovery; AIR CHINA, HWORLD-S, Atour Lifestyle, and Others Favorably Rated
Tourism Industry Growth: The tourism sector is increasingly aligned with China's goals for enhancing well-being and happiness, with projections indicating domestic tourism consumption will rise from 13% in 2023 to 18% by 2030, contributing significantly to GDP growth.
Revenue Projections: Morgan Stanley forecasts that the tourism industry's revenue will reach RMB12 trillion by 2030, with its GDP contribution increasing from 4.8% in 2024 to 6.7%.
Investment Recommendations: Investors are encouraged to capitalize on the growing tourism demand, with Morgan Stanley highlighting five key stocks, including AIR CHINA and TRIP.COM-S, as potential beneficiaries.
Market Insights: The report also notes the short selling activity and market performance of the recommended stocks, indicating investor sentiment and market dynamics within the tourism sector.
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Airline Industry Outlook: Morgan Stanley predicts a multi-year cyclical improvement in the airline industry, gaining momentum in 2026-2027 due to increased demand, despite low investor confidence.
Target Price Increases: The broker raised target prices for the airline sector by an average of 42% and upgraded the A-shares of three major airlines to Overweight.
Passenger Load Factor Improvement: An estimated annual improvement of 1-2 percentage points in the passenger load factor (PLF) suggests stronger pricing power for airlines.
Optimistic Profit Margin Potential: Morgan Stanley maintains an optimistic view on the supply-driven upcycle for Chinese airlines, indicating potential upside for profit margins if pricing exceeds expectations.

Tourism Industry Growth: The tourism sector is increasingly aligned with China's goals for enhancing well-being and happiness, with projections indicating domestic tourism consumption will rise from 13% in 2023 to 18% by 2030, contributing significantly to GDP growth.
Revenue Projections: Morgan Stanley forecasts that the tourism industry's revenue will reach RMB12 trillion by 2030, with its GDP contribution increasing from 4.8% in 2024 to 6.7%.
Investment Recommendations: Investors are encouraged to capitalize on the growing tourism demand, with Morgan Stanley highlighting five key stocks, including AIR CHINA and TRIP.COM-S, as potential beneficiaries.
Market Insights: The report also notes the short selling activity and market performance of the recommended stocks, indicating investor sentiment and market dynamics within the tourism sector.

Capacity Investment: AIR CHINA plans to upgrade its capacity for the 2026 Spring Festival travel rush, increasing its registered aircraft by 25 year-on-year and operating over 70,000 passenger flights, a 10.1% increase from the previous year.
Flight Schedule: The airline will average approximately 1,800 flights daily, which is an increase of 160 flights year-on-year, focusing on key routes in major city clusters across China.

Airline Ticket Policy Update: Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines have announced a new policy allowing free changes or refunds for tickets issued before January 26, 2026, for flights to, from, or transiting through Japan.
Initial Policy Scope: The free change and refund policy was initially limited to flights scheduled before March 28, 2026, but has now been expanded to include a broader range of tickets.
Inaugural Flight: AIR CHINA successfully completed its inaugural direct flight from Beijing to Abu Dhabi, marking the first direct connection between the capitals of China and the UAE operated by a Chinese airline.
New Route Details: The new route, launched in 2026, operates with Boeing 787 aircraft and offers four direct flights per week between the two cities.

Positive Outlook for Asia-Pacific Airlines: BofA Securities projects strong airline profits in 2026 due to high ticket prices, healthy demand, improved cargo fundamentals, and potential oil supply surplus benefits.
Target Price Adjustments for Airlines: BofA raised target prices for several airlines, including CHINA EAST AIR to HKD2.9 (Underperform), CHINA SOUTH AIR to HKD5.92 (upgraded to Neutral), and AIR CHINA to HKD8.3 (upgraded to Buy).






