Linde Shares Decline Despite Strong Earnings — Here's Why We’re Keeping Our Rating
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Oct 31 2025
0mins
Should l Buy LIN?
Source: CNBC
Earnings Performance: Linde's third-quarter revenue rose 3% to $8.62 billion, surpassing estimates, while adjusted earnings per share increased nearly 7% to $4.21, also exceeding expectations. However, cash flow fell short of consensus, leading to a 2% drop in shares.
Guidance and Outlook: The company provided cautious fourth-quarter guidance for adjusted EPS between $4.10 and $4.20, below analyst estimates, and tightened its full-year earnings forecast to $16.35 to $16.45 per share, indicating 5% to 6% annual growth.
Market Position and Backlog: Linde maintains a strong market position with a diverse customer base across various industries, and it reported a record-high project backlog of $10 billion, which is expected to support future earnings growth.
Regional Sales Performance: Sales increased across various segments, with notable growth in the Americas (6% year-over-year) and stable performance in Asia Pacific and Europe, although engineering sales fell 15% year-over-year.
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Analyst Views on LIN
Wall Street analysts forecast LIN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LIN is 499.07 USD with a low forecast of 455.00 USD and a high forecast of 540.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
17 Analyst Rating
15 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 459.690
Low
455.00
Averages
499.07
High
540.00
Current: 459.690
Low
455.00
Averages
499.07
High
540.00
About LIN
Linde plc is a United Kingdom-based industrial gases and engineering company. The Company serves a variety of end markets, such as chemicals and energy, food and beverage, electronics, healthcare, manufacturing, metals, and mining. The Company’s industrial gases and technologies are used in countless applications, including production of clean hydrogen and carbon capture systems critical to the energy transition, life-saving medical oxygen and high-purity and specialty gases for electronics. It also delivers gas processing solutions to support customer expansion, efficiency improvements and emissions reductions. Its primary products in its industrial gases business are atmospheric gases and process gases. The Company also designs and builds equipment that produces industrial gases and offers customers a range of gas production and processing services, such as olefin plants, natural gas plants, air separation plants, hydrogen and synthesis gas plants and other types of plants.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Improved Growth Expectations: Despite a challenging operating environment, Linde is expected to grow better in 2026 than in 2025, primarily due to reduced headwinds and increased productivity.
- Project Startups and Acquisitions: The company will benefit from project startups and bolt-on acquisitions, which will further drive performance growth and enhance market competitiveness.
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- Price Growth Stagnation: The analyst highlighted that Linde's average prices have remained flat for two consecutive quarters, primarily due to lower helium prices, which could negatively impact future profitability.
- Competitive Pricing Dynamics: Linde's competitor, Air Products, has also seen flat prices for three straight quarters, with the analyst suggesting that this pricing dynamic increases medium-term earnings risk, potentially affecting investor confidence.
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- Shareholder Returns: The company returned over $7 billion to shareholders in 2025, with $1.4 billion in stock repurchases in Q4, reflecting disciplined capital management and a commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
- Record Project Backlog: Linde's project backlog reached a record $10 billion, including $0.5 billion allocated for rocket propellant investments, indicating strategic positioning in the rapidly growing aerospace market and future growth opportunities.
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- Nasdaq Rebound: The Nasdaq gained over 2% on Friday, yet still posted a 1.8% decline for the week, indicating ongoing investor concerns about tech stocks and the need to monitor future market trends.
- Dow Hits All-Time High: The Dow surged more than 1,200 points on Friday, closing at 50,115 with a weekly gain of 2.5%, reflecting a shift of funds from growth to value stocks, which may influence future investment strategies.
- Surge in Capital Expenditures: Alphabet announced that its capital expenditures for 2026 could exceed double the previous year, and despite a 0.5% drop in shares on Thursday, market confidence in its AI investments remains strong, signaling expectations for future growth.
- Software Stocks Crushed: Software stocks faced significant declines due to fears of AI encroaching on traditional SaaS companies, leading to pressure on the entire tech sector, prompting investors to remain vigilant about potential risks and opportunities within the industry.
See More
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- Price Target Increase: Morgan Stanley raised Linde's (LIN) price target from $495 to $530 while maintaining an Overweight rating, reflecting confidence in the company's future performance.
- Improved Growth Expectations: Despite a challenging operating environment, Linde is expected to grow better in 2026 than in 2025, primarily due to reduced headwinds and increased productivity.
- Project Startups and Acquisitions: The company will benefit from project startups and bolt-on acquisitions, which will further drive performance growth and enhance market competitiveness.
- Foreign Exchange and Macro Factors: Favorable foreign exchange conditions and modest macroeconomic improvements are also expected to support Linde's performance, likely enhancing overall profitability.
See More
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- Rating Downgrade Impact: J.P. Morgan downgraded Linde from Overweight to Neutral with a $455 price target, anticipating flat performance in 2026 similar to last year's, indicating growth challenges ahead.
- Price Growth Stagnation: The analyst highlighted that Linde's average prices have remained flat for two consecutive quarters, primarily due to lower helium prices, which could negatively impact future profitability.
- Competitive Pricing Dynamics: Linde's competitor, Air Products, has also seen flat prices for three straight quarters, with the analyst suggesting that this pricing dynamic increases medium-term earnings risk, potentially affecting investor confidence.
- Trading Multiple Outlook: The analyst believes Linde's trading multiples are unlikely to expand until the company reports a more positive pricing dynamic, indicating that investors should monitor future pricing strategies to assess the company's profit potential.
See More
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- Dow Jones Rebound: On Friday, the Dow Jones surged over 950 points, nearly 2%, indicating a strong market rebound, which Jim Cramer described as a 'mighty Dow rally', boosting investor sentiment.
- Amazon Stock Decline: Despite the overall rise in Dow components, Amazon's stock fell 7.5% due to massive spending plans and weaker-than-expected guidance revealed in Thursday's earnings report, impacting investor confidence.
- Eli Lilly Share Recovery: Eli Lilly shares bounced back 3% on Friday after an almost 8% drop, as the FDA announced actions against illegal copycat drugs, which bolstered market confidence in Lilly's growth potential.
- Linde Rating Downgrade: Following a 2.9% decline post-earnings on Thursday, Linde shares dropped another 1.7% on Friday after JPMorgan downgraded its rating to hold, although Jim Cramer maintained a buy rating and raised the price target to $510.
See More
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- Tech Stock Volatility: After three sessions of sharp losses, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are expected to open higher, despite significant post-earnings losses in Amazon, indicating investor concerns about tech stocks that may lead to a reassessment of risks.
- Amazon's Spending Plan: Amazon's $200 billion capital expenditure plan for 2026, coupled with a current-quarter profit forecast miss that sent shares down 8%, suggests the company may face financial pressure in the AI race.
- Stellantis Restructuring: Stellantis announced a massive $26 billion restructuring charge, including a pullback on electric vehicle plans and reintroducing V8 engines, resulting in a 24% drop in shares, reflecting market concerns about its future strategy.
- Bloom Energy Stock Surge: Wells Fargo raised Bloom Energy's price target from $95 to $130, noting fourth-quarter earnings beat estimates, leading to a more than 13% increase in shares, demonstrating market confidence in its growth potential.
See More
Linde plc Q4 2025 Earnings Call Insights
- Strong Performance: Linde reported Q4 2025 sales of $8.8 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, with operating profit at $2.6 billion and a 29.5% margin, demonstrating robust financial results despite headwinds in traditional industrial markets.
- Shareholder Returns: The company returned over $7 billion to shareholders in 2025, with $1.4 billion in stock repurchases in Q4, reflecting disciplined capital management and a commitment to enhancing shareholder value.
- Record Project Backlog: Linde's project backlog reached a record $10 billion, including $0.5 billion allocated for rocket propellant investments, indicating strategic positioning in the rapidly growing aerospace market and future growth opportunities.
- Future Outlook: Management projects 2026 EPS between $17.40 and $17.90, representing a 6% to 9% increase from 2025, emphasizing continued focus on resource alignment and market recovery dynamics to ensure long-term shareholder value creation.
See More
