Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Near-term technical risk: extremely overbought RSI + price near R1 resistance (~472) → higher probability of a pullback after the earnings reaction.
- Macro/volume headwind risk (per analyst notes): weak industrial production backdrop, especially Europe; potential 1–3% EPS drag from volume headwinds in 2026 (RBC view).
- Policy/trade risk: Citi noted potential fresh tariff risks despite a better currency/sales environment.
- Options imply bigger moves (IV far above HV): market pricing in uncertainty; after the event, momentum can fade quickly.