JPMorgan Favoring China Resources Land, China Resources Mixc, and China Jinmao; Chinese Property Sector Expected to Continue Outperforming Until April
Market Reaction: Chinese property developer stocks rose, speculated to be linked to the decision by authorities to stop requiring monthly "Three Red Lines" compliance reports, although JPMorgan noted this news was not new.
JPMorgan's Analysis: The firm indicated that the stock rise might be influenced by other market rumors, as no new relevant information was available at the time of their report.
Future Outlook: JPMorgan believes the performance of the Chinese property sector may continue to exceed market expectations until the Two Sessions in March and the CCP Politburo meeting in April.
Investment Recommendations: The report highlighted optimism for specific companies like CHINA RES LAND and LONGFOR GROUP, with the latter being noted for the best risk-reward potential in a policy-driven market.
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HSI Gains 12 Points, Yet Software Stocks and Dotcoms Decline; Coal and Chinese Developers Surge
Market Performance: The HSI closed slightly up at 26,847, while the HSCEI and HSTECH saw minor declines, with total market turnover dropping to $285.433 billion.
Sector Struggles: Software and dotcom sectors faced significant losses, with major companies like TENCENT and MEITU experiencing declines of 3.96% and 11.4%, respectively.
Resource Stocks Rise: Gold and silver prices rebounded, with companies like CHINAGOLDINTL and ZHAOJIN MINING seeing gains, while coal stocks like YANKUANG ENERGY surged by over 10%.
Financial Sector Movements: HSBC and AIA saw slight increases, while HKEX experienced a minor decline; Chinese property developers generally performed well, with several stocks rising between 5% and 10%.
HSI Declines 656 Points at Midday; Commodities, Chinese Telecoms, and Auto Sector Face Pressure
Market Performance: The HSI dropped 656 points (2.4%) to 26,730, with significant declines in the HSCEI and HSTECH, while total market turnover reached HKD178.124 billion.
Decline in Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices fell, with notable drops in CHI SILVER GP and SD GOLD, both experiencing declines of over 10%.
Resource and Telecom Stocks: Resource stocks like JIANGXI COPPER and CHALCO saw significant losses, while telecom companies such as CHINA TELECOM and CHINA UNICOM plummeted due to a VAT increase on telecom services.
Automotive and Tech Sector Struggles: BYD reported a 30.1% YoY drop in new energy vehicle sales, while major tech stocks like TENCENT and JD-SW also experienced declines, reflecting broader market challenges.
CICC Anticipates Continued Pressure on CN Developers' 2025 Earnings; CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP Maintain Significant Profit Levels
Earnings Forecast: China's real estate sector is expected to see a significant decline in earnings for covered companies in 2025, with firms like CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP projected to experience a 15-20% year-on-year decrease.
Market Sentiment: Despite the anticipated earnings drop, CICC maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector for 2023, suggesting potential for positive returns and good value in stock selection for 2026.
Company Performance: Some companies, including GREENTOWN CHINA and YUEXIU PROPERTY, may report marginal profits, while others like LONGFOR GROUP and URBAN CONS DEV could face slight losses, with a few firms expected to see steady core profits.
Stock Ratings: CICC has kept its ratings and target prices unchanged for various Chinese developers, highlighting stocks such as BINJIANG GP and SEAZEN HOLDINGS as outperformers in the market.
G Sachs: Liquidity Support Continues to Be Key Factor for Short-Term Share Price Recovery in China's Real Estate Market
Regulatory Changes: Recent reports indicate that Chinese developers have confirmed the suspension of the monthly 'Three Red Lines' indicator data submission, which was reportedly halted a year ago.
Market Reaction: The news has positively impacted the Chinese property sector, suggesting that liquidity injection is a key factor driving short-term share price recovery, despite ongoing challenges in housing demand.
Goldman Sachs Ratings: Goldman Sachs has maintained a 'Buy' rating for several Chinese real estate companies, including CHINA RES LAND and GREENTOWN CHINA, amidst the evolving market conditions.
Short Selling Data: The article provides short selling statistics for various Hong Kong stocks, highlighting significant short selling activity in companies like CHINA OVERSEAS and GREENTOWN CHINA.
<M Stanley Research>: Recent Growth in China's Property Market May Not Last; Home Sales and Prices Expected to Decline in the Coming Months
Market Sentiment and Predictions: Morgan Stanley attributes the recent rise in Chinese property developers to improved investor sentiment and increased residential sales, but warns that optimism may be misplaced as seasonal factors and policy effects could lead to a decline in sales and property prices.
Investment Ratings Overview: The report includes investment ratings and target prices for various Chinese property developers, indicating a mix of "Overweight," "Equalweight," and "Underweight" ratings based on their performance and market conditions.
Impact of Lunar New Year: The firm anticipates that the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday will negatively impact residential sales, further complicating the market recovery.
Policy Stimulus Likelihood: With the recent uptick in sales in Tier 1 cities, the chances of additional policy stimulus to support the property market are considered to be diminishing.
M Stanley Predicts Decline in CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) Share Price Over the Next 60 Days Due to Various Short-Term Challenges
Morgan Stanley's Prediction: Morgan Stanley forecasts a decline in CHINA JINMAO's share price over the next 60 days due to reduced short-term valuation appeal following a recent stock price rise.
Market Outlook: The broker highlights a pessimistic outlook for the real estate market, suggesting that the recent positive sentiment-driven performance is unlikely to continue.
Earnings Projections: Morgan Stanley anticipates multiple short-term challenges for the industry and CHINA JINMAO, including a projected core profit drop of over 50% year-on-year in 2025.
Rating and Target Price: Despite the challenges, Morgan Stanley maintains an Equalweight rating on CHINA JINMAO, citing solid fundamentals and quality land reserves, with a target price set at $1.23.
HSI Gains 12 Points, Yet Software Stocks and Dotcoms Decline; Coal and Chinese Developers Surge
Market Performance: The HSI closed slightly up at 26,847, while the HSCEI and HSTECH saw minor declines, with total market turnover dropping to $285.433 billion.
Sector Struggles: Software and dotcom sectors faced significant losses, with major companies like TENCENT and MEITU experiencing declines of 3.96% and 11.4%, respectively.
Resource Stocks Rise: Gold and silver prices rebounded, with companies like CHINAGOLDINTL and ZHAOJIN MINING seeing gains, while coal stocks like YANKUANG ENERGY surged by over 10%.
Financial Sector Movements: HSBC and AIA saw slight increases, while HKEX experienced a minor decline; Chinese property developers generally performed well, with several stocks rising between 5% and 10%.
HSI Declines 656 Points at Midday; Commodities, Chinese Telecoms, and Auto Sector Face Pressure
Market Performance: The HSI dropped 656 points (2.4%) to 26,730, with significant declines in the HSCEI and HSTECH, while total market turnover reached HKD178.124 billion.
Decline in Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices fell, with notable drops in CHI SILVER GP and SD GOLD, both experiencing declines of over 10%.
Resource and Telecom Stocks: Resource stocks like JIANGXI COPPER and CHALCO saw significant losses, while telecom companies such as CHINA TELECOM and CHINA UNICOM plummeted due to a VAT increase on telecom services.
Automotive and Tech Sector Struggles: BYD reported a 30.1% YoY drop in new energy vehicle sales, while major tech stocks like TENCENT and JD-SW also experienced declines, reflecting broader market challenges.
CICC Anticipates Continued Pressure on CN Developers' 2025 Earnings; CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP Maintain Significant Profit Levels
Earnings Forecast: China's real estate sector is expected to see a significant decline in earnings for covered companies in 2025, with firms like CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP projected to experience a 15-20% year-on-year decrease.
Market Sentiment: Despite the anticipated earnings drop, CICC maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector for 2023, suggesting potential for positive returns and good value in stock selection for 2026.
Company Performance: Some companies, including GREENTOWN CHINA and YUEXIU PROPERTY, may report marginal profits, while others like LONGFOR GROUP and URBAN CONS DEV could face slight losses, with a few firms expected to see steady core profits.
Stock Ratings: CICC has kept its ratings and target prices unchanged for various Chinese developers, highlighting stocks such as BINJIANG GP and SEAZEN HOLDINGS as outperformers in the market.
G Sachs: Liquidity Support Continues to Be Key Factor for Short-Term Share Price Recovery in China's Real Estate Market
Regulatory Changes: Recent reports indicate that Chinese developers have confirmed the suspension of the monthly 'Three Red Lines' indicator data submission, which was reportedly halted a year ago.
Market Reaction: The news has positively impacted the Chinese property sector, suggesting that liquidity injection is a key factor driving short-term share price recovery, despite ongoing challenges in housing demand.
Goldman Sachs Ratings: Goldman Sachs has maintained a 'Buy' rating for several Chinese real estate companies, including CHINA RES LAND and GREENTOWN CHINA, amidst the evolving market conditions.
Short Selling Data: The article provides short selling statistics for various Hong Kong stocks, highlighting significant short selling activity in companies like CHINA OVERSEAS and GREENTOWN CHINA.
<M Stanley Research>: Recent Growth in China's Property Market May Not Last; Home Sales and Prices Expected to Decline in the Coming Months
Market Sentiment and Predictions: Morgan Stanley attributes the recent rise in Chinese property developers to improved investor sentiment and increased residential sales, but warns that optimism may be misplaced as seasonal factors and policy effects could lead to a decline in sales and property prices.
Investment Ratings Overview: The report includes investment ratings and target prices for various Chinese property developers, indicating a mix of "Overweight," "Equalweight," and "Underweight" ratings based on their performance and market conditions.
Impact of Lunar New Year: The firm anticipates that the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday will negatively impact residential sales, further complicating the market recovery.
Policy Stimulus Likelihood: With the recent uptick in sales in Tier 1 cities, the chances of additional policy stimulus to support the property market are considered to be diminishing.
M Stanley Predicts Decline in CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) Share Price Over the Next 60 Days Due to Various Short-Term Challenges
Morgan Stanley's Prediction: Morgan Stanley forecasts a decline in CHINA JINMAO's share price over the next 60 days due to reduced short-term valuation appeal following a recent stock price rise.
Market Outlook: The broker highlights a pessimistic outlook for the real estate market, suggesting that the recent positive sentiment-driven performance is unlikely to continue.
Earnings Projections: Morgan Stanley anticipates multiple short-term challenges for the industry and CHINA JINMAO, including a projected core profit drop of over 50% year-on-year in 2025.
Rating and Target Price: Despite the challenges, Morgan Stanley maintains an Equalweight rating on CHINA JINMAO, citing solid fundamentals and quality land reserves, with a target price set at $1.23.
