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4.5

02-04aastocks

HSI Gains 12 Points, Yet Software Stocks and Dotcoms Decline; Coal and Chinese Developers Surge

4.5

02-02aastocks

HSI Declines 656 Points at Midday; Commodities, Chinese Telecoms, and Auto Sector Face Pressure

7.0

02-02aastocks

CICC Anticipates Continued Pressure on CN Developers' 2025 Earnings; CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP Maintain Significant Profit Levels

6.0

02-02aastocks

G Sachs: Liquidity Support Continues to Be Key Factor for Short-Term Share Price Recovery in China's Real Estate Market

6.5

01-30aastocks

<M Stanley Research>: Recent Growth in China's Property Market May Not Last; Home Sales and Prices Expected to Decline in the Coming Months

Money Flow

Over the past 66 trading days, overall net money flow is 32.15M, with retail investors contributing 865.40K and major investors adding 27.48M.

Net Buy $ Volume

Net Sell $ Volume

Morgan Stanley

Equalweight

maintain

$1.23

2026-01-30

Reason

Morgan Stanley's analyst rating for CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) is based on several key factors: 1. Short-term Valuation Appeal: The recent rise in the company's stock price has significantly reduced its short-term valuation appeal, leading to an anticipated decline in share price over the next 60 days. 2. Pessimistic Real Estate Market Outlook: The broker believes that the current positive sentiment driving industry performance is unlikely to be sustained, given the overall pessimistic outlook for the real estate market. 3. Potential Earnings Miss: Morgan Stanley expects the company to face multiple short-term headwinds, including a potential earnings miss, with core profit projected to drop over 50% year-over-year in 2025. 4. Solid Fundamentals and Quality Land Reserves: Despite these challenges, the broker maintains an Equalweight rating due to the company's solid fundamentals and support from quality land reserves in first-tier cities. 5. Target Price: The target price set by Morgan Stanley for CHINA JINMAO is $1.23. Overall, the rating reflects a cautious outlook due to anticipated challenges, balanced by the company's underlying strengths.

Morgan Stanley

Equalweight

Price Target

$1.23

2026-01-30

maintain

Morgan Stanley's analyst rating for CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) is based on several key factors: 1. Short-term Valuation Appeal: The recent rise in the company's stock price has significantly reduced its short-term valuation appeal, leading to an anticipated decline in share price over the next 60 days. 2. Pessimistic Real Estate Market Outlook: The broker believes that the current positive sentiment driving industry performance is unlikely to be sustained, given the overall pessimistic outlook for the real estate market. 3. Potential Earnings Miss: Morgan Stanley expects the company to face multiple short-term headwinds, including a potential earnings miss, with core profit projected to drop over 50% year-over-year in 2025. 4. Solid Fundamentals and Quality Land Reserves: Despite these challenges, the broker maintains an Equalweight rating due to the company's solid fundamentals and support from quality land reserves in first-tier cities. 5. Target Price: The target price set by Morgan Stanley for CHINA JINMAO is $1.23. Overall, the rating reflects a cautious outlook due to anticipated challenges, balanced by the company's underlying strengths.

JP Morgan

maintain

2026-01-30

Reason

The analyst rating from JP Morgan is based on the observation that Chinese property developers may continue to outperform the market ahead of significant political events, such as the Two Sessions in March and the Politburo meeting in April. The report notes that while the recent stock price increase could be attributed to market speculation regarding the easing of reporting requirements, this change is not new, as authorities have not enforced the monthly report submission for several years. Despite this, JP Morgan acknowledges the possibility that the surge in stock prices could be influenced by other speculative market behaviors. The broker specifically favors certain companies, including CHINA RES LAND, CHINA RES MIXC, and CHINA JINMAO, while highlighting LONGFOR GROUP as offering the best risk/reward potential in a policy-driven rally.

JP Morgan

Price Target

2026-01-30

maintain

The analyst rating from JP Morgan is based on the observation that Chinese property developers may continue to outperform the market ahead of significant political events, such as the Two Sessions in March and the Politburo meeting in April. The report notes that while the recent stock price increase could be attributed to market speculation regarding the easing of reporting requirements, this change is not new, as authorities have not enforced the monthly report submission for several years. Despite this, JP Morgan acknowledges the possibility that the surge in stock prices could be influenced by other speculative market behaviors. The broker specifically favors certain companies, including CHINA RES LAND, CHINA RES MIXC, and CHINA JINMAO, while highlighting LONGFOR GROUP as offering the best risk/reward potential in a policy-driven rally.

JPMorgan

Overweight

maintain

$35/$44.5/$1.75

2025-12-31

Reason

The analyst rating from JPMorgan is based on the belief that the recent reduction in the value-added tax rate for residential properties will have a limited impact on the real estate market. The broker argues that while the policy may slightly reduce costs for sellers, it does not benefit buyers or improve their expectations regarding home prices. Consequently, without a stronger commitment from the government to stabilize home prices, JPMorgan projects that the real estate market will remain sluggish. This analysis leads to their recommendations, with certain stocks being rated as Overweight and others advised to be avoided.

JPMorgan

Overweight

Price Target

$35/$44.5/$1.75

2025-12-31

maintain

The analyst rating from JPMorgan is based on the belief that the recent reduction in the value-added tax rate for residential properties will have a limited impact on the real estate market. The broker argues that while the policy may slightly reduce costs for sellers, it does not benefit buyers or improve their expectations regarding home prices. Consequently, without a stronger commitment from the government to stabilize home prices, JPMorgan projects that the real estate market will remain sluggish. This analysis leads to their recommendations, with certain stocks being rated as Overweight and others advised to be avoided.

JPMorgan

maintain

2025-12-12

Reason

The analyst rating from JPMorgan is influenced by the emphasis on stabilizing the property market during the recent Central Economic Work Conference in mainland China. While the report notes that specific measures were not detailed, it suggests that potential future policies may focus on reducing home buying costs, such as mortgage subsidies. However, JPMorgan expresses caution, indicating that without a stronger commitment from policymakers to stabilize home prices, any measures taken may only have a short-term effect on trading volume and prices. Historical data also suggests that the property sector tends to underperform following government meetings if the policies announced are not unexpected. This cautious outlook is reflected in their selective recommendations for certain stocks while remaining wary of others.

JPMorgan

Price Target

2025-12-12

maintain

The analyst rating from JPMorgan is influenced by the emphasis on stabilizing the property market during the recent Central Economic Work Conference in mainland China. While the report notes that specific measures were not detailed, it suggests that potential future policies may focus on reducing home buying costs, such as mortgage subsidies. However, JPMorgan expresses caution, indicating that without a stronger commitment from policymakers to stabilize home prices, any measures taken may only have a short-term effect on trading volume and prices. Historical data also suggests that the property sector tends to underperform following government meetings if the policies announced are not unexpected. This cautious outlook is reflected in their selective recommendations for certain stocks while remaining wary of others.

CICC

initiated

$1.86

2025-10-24

Reason

The analyst rating of "Outperform" for CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) is based on the broker's assessment that the company is experiencing significantly positive changes in its management and strategy. The report highlights that historical burdens are manageable and that the company has the potential for incremental flexibility. This is attributed to the refined management and strategic focus, which are seen as providing a solid foundation for reshaping value.

CICC

Price Target

$1.86

2025-10-24

initiated

The analyst rating of "Outperform" for CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) is based on the broker's assessment that the company is experiencing significantly positive changes in its management and strategy. The report highlights that historical burdens are manageable and that the company has the potential for incremental flexibility. This is attributed to the refined management and strategic focus, which are seen as providing a solid foundation for reshaping value.

Morgan Stanley

Equalweight

maintain

2025-10-06

Reason

The analyst rating from Morgan Stanley for CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) is maintained at "Equalweight" due to several positive factors. The company's property sales have increased by 27% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, prompting the broker to raise its full-year sales forecast by 11% to RMB118 billion, indicating a projected 20% year-over-year growth. Additionally, revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been increased by 6%, 10%, and 11%, respectively. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley has also raised its gross profit margin forecasts for the development business for the same period, reflecting better-than-expected average selling prices of new projects. These factors contribute to a more optimistic outlook, but the "Equalweight" rating suggests that the stock is fairly valued at its current price level.

Morgan Stanley

Equalweight

Price Target

2025-10-06

maintain

The analyst rating from Morgan Stanley for CHINA JINMAO (00817.HK) is maintained at "Equalweight" due to several positive factors. The company's property sales have increased by 27% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025, prompting the broker to raise its full-year sales forecast by 11% to RMB118 billion, indicating a projected 20% year-over-year growth. Additionally, revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been increased by 6%, 10%, and 11%, respectively. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley has also raised its gross profit margin forecasts for the development business for the same period, reflecting better-than-expected average selling prices of new projects. These factors contribute to a more optimistic outlook, but the "Equalweight" rating suggests that the stock is fairly valued at its current price level.

HSBC

HSBC Global Research

Hold

downgrade

2025-08-28

Reason

HSBC

Hold

Price Target

2025-08-28

downgrade

Valuation Metrics

Forward PE

5Y Average PE

5.86

Current PE

11.48

Overvalued PE

8.13

Undervalued PE

3.59

Forward EV/EBITDA

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

20.76

Current EV/EBITDA

27.38

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

28.95

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

12.56

Forward PS

5Y Average PS

0.24

Current PS

0.25

Overvalued PS

0.32

Undervalued PS

0.16

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