Jefferies Upgrades Vistra to Buy with $203 Price Target
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Should l Buy VST?
Source: seekingalpha
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Vistra from Hold to Buy with a price target increase from $191 to $203, reflecting the analyst's optimism about future data center contracts despite a 25% stock drop since September.
- Cash Flow Appeal: The analyst highlighted that Vistra's free cash flow yield of approximately 12% for FY 2028 offers a compelling entry point compared to the 7%-8% yield seen over the past year, indicating a strong foundation for future growth potential.
- Market Dynamics Benefit: With heavy exposure to capacity markets and high electricity generation output, along with a large fleet of CCGTs, gas peakers, and nuclear plants, Vistra is expected to benefit from current positive power dynamics, with growth potential stemming from multiple factors rather than a single one.
- Development Opportunities: The analyst anticipates Vistra to articulate and quantify its opportunities for contracted brownfield development to unlock further equity value, and with over 10 GW in PJM and a large fleet, the company is seen as well-positioned for uprate and brownfield expansions to support growth.
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Analyst Views on VST
Wall Street analysts forecast VST stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VST is 240.09 USD with a low forecast of 217.00 USD and a high forecast of 287.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 152.970
Low
217.00
Averages
240.09
High
287.00
Current: 152.970
Low
217.00
Averages
240.09
High
287.00
About VST
Vistra Corp. is an integrated retail electricity and power generation company that provides essential resources to customers, businesses, and communities from California to Maine. It operates a reliable power generation fleet of natural gas, nuclear, coal, solar, and battery energy storage facilities while taking an innovative, customer-centric approach to its retail business. Its segments include Retail, Texas, East, West, and Asset Closure. The Retail segment is engaged in retail sales of electricity and natural gas to residential, commercial and industrial customers. The Texas and East segments are engaged in electricity generation, wholesale energy sales and purchases, commodity risk management activities, fuel procurement, and logistics management. The West segment represents results from the CAISO market, including its battery ESS projects at its Moss Landing power plant site. The Asset Closure segment is engaged in the decommissioning and reclamation of retired plants and mines.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Jefferies Upgrades Vistra to Buy with $203 Price Target
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Vistra from Hold to Buy with a price target increase from $191 to $203, reflecting the analyst's optimism about future data center contracts despite a 25% stock drop since September.
- Cash Flow Appeal: The analyst highlighted that Vistra's free cash flow yield of approximately 12% for FY 2028 offers a compelling entry point compared to the 7%-8% yield seen over the past year, indicating a strong foundation for future growth potential.
- Market Dynamics Benefit: With heavy exposure to capacity markets and high electricity generation output, along with a large fleet of CCGTs, gas peakers, and nuclear plants, Vistra is expected to benefit from current positive power dynamics, with growth potential stemming from multiple factors rather than a single one.
- Development Opportunities: The analyst anticipates Vistra to articulate and quantify its opportunities for contracted brownfield development to unlock further equity value, and with over 10 GW in PJM and a large fleet, the company is seen as well-positioned for uprate and brownfield expansions to support growth.
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Jefferies Upgrades Vistra Corp to Buy, Sees 30% Upside
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Vistra Corp from hold to buy, arguing that the current share price does not accurately reflect the likelihood of future data center deals, indicating a potential undervaluation in the market.
- Price Target Increase: The investment bank raised Vistra's 12-month price target from $191 to $203, suggesting about a 30% upside from Monday's close, reflecting an optimistic outlook on the company's future growth prospects.
- Market Reaction: Vistra shares rose as much as 5.5% in early trading on Tuesday, indicating a positive market response to the upgrade, despite the stock being down approximately 25% since announcing a 1,200 megawatt power supply deal last September.
- Attractive Investment Opportunity: Jefferies analysts noted that while it is impossible to 'call bottom', the current market valuation of around $52 billion presents an attractive entry point for investors, especially given the strong demand for nuclear power from data center developers.
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Jefferies Upgrades Vistra to Buy with $203 Price Target
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Vistra from Hold to Buy with a price target increase from $191 to $203, reflecting the analyst's optimism about future data center contracts despite a 25% stock drop since September.
- Cash Flow Appeal: The analyst highlighted that Vistra's free cash flow yield of approximately 12% for FY 2028 offers a compelling entry point compared to the 7%-8% yield seen over the past year, indicating a strong foundation for future growth potential.
- Market Dynamics Benefit: With heavy exposure to capacity markets and high electricity generation output, along with a large fleet of CCGTs, gas peakers, and nuclear plants, Vistra is expected to benefit from current positive power dynamics, with growth potential stemming from multiple factors rather than a single one.
- Development Opportunities: The analyst anticipates Vistra to articulate and quantify its opportunities for contracted brownfield development to unlock further equity value, and with over 10 GW in PJM and a large fleet, the company is seen as well-positioned for uprate and brownfield expansions to support growth.
See More
Jefferies Upgrades Vistra Corp to Buy, Sees 30% Upside
- Rating Upgrade: Jefferies upgraded Vistra Corp from hold to buy, arguing that the current share price does not accurately reflect the likelihood of future data center deals, indicating a potential undervaluation in the market.
- Price Target Increase: The investment bank raised Vistra's 12-month price target from $191 to $203, suggesting about a 30% upside from Monday's close, reflecting an optimistic outlook on the company's future growth prospects.
- Market Reaction: Vistra shares rose as much as 5.5% in early trading on Tuesday, indicating a positive market response to the upgrade, despite the stock being down approximately 25% since announcing a 1,200 megawatt power supply deal last September.
- Attractive Investment Opportunity: Jefferies analysts noted that while it is impossible to 'call bottom', the current market valuation of around $52 billion presents an attractive entry point for investors, especially given the strong demand for nuclear power from data center developers.
See More
Market Watch: Tech Stocks and Earnings Dynamics
- Chip Stock Focus: With Taiwan Semi reporting a 37% year-over-year sales increase, attention on chip stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom is rising, indicating a robust rebound in artificial intelligence demand that could drive stock performance.
- DuPont Earnings Beat: DuPont's fourth-quarter net sales, EBITDA, and adjusted EPS exceeded expectations, with adjusted EPS ranging from $2.25 to $2.30 compared to the consensus of $2.14, while management's 2026 outlook also surpassed market expectations, highlighting the company's strong growth potential.
- CVS Strong Quarter but Stock Drops: CVS reported an adjusted EPS of $1.09 for the fourth quarter, beating expectations of $0.99; however, the stock fell over 2% due to the full-year EPS midpoint being below market estimates, reflecting concerns about future profitability.
- Tesla Solar Investment Outlook: Morgan Stanley praised Tesla's decision to increase spending on solar manufacturing, estimating that Tesla Solar could add $20 billion to $50 billion in equity value to its energy valuation, demonstrating the company's strategic positioning in the renewable energy sector.
See More
VISTRA CORP STOCK RISES 2.8% FOLLOWING JEFFERIES UPGRADE TO 'BUY'
- Stock Performance: Vistracorp shares increased by 2.8% following a positive market response.
- Analyst Upgrade: The rise in stock value was influenced by Jeffries upgrading Vistracorp's rating to 'Buy'.
See More
Key Wall Street Rating Changes Overview
- Shopify Upgrade: MoffettNathanson upgraded Shopify from neutral to buy, citing an attractive entry point due to market fears surrounding software companies, and believes Shopify will emerge as a long-term winner in the AI commerce landscape.
- Nvidia Outlook: Bernstein reiterated Nvidia as outperform, emphasizing that the AI growth trend remains robust, particularly in the AI compute sector, suggesting continued benefits for Nvidia and its peers.
- Thomson Reuters Upgrade: RBC upgraded Thomson Reuters from sector perform to outperform, indicating that the company's potential in the AI space will drive a rebound in stock price, creating an asymmetric upside opportunity in a complex market.
- Micron Price Target Increase: Deutsche Bank raised Micron's price target from $300 to $500 per share, asserting that the current market environment remains favorable for Micron's performance in the upcoming quarters, indicating strong growth potential.
See More
US Stocks Surge, Dow Hits All-Time High
- Dow Hits Record High: The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.47% to reach an all-time high, reflecting market optimism about economic recovery, particularly amid strong rebounds in tech and chipmaker stocks.
- Consumer Confidence Rises: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly increased to 57.3, surpassing expectations of 55.0, indicating enhanced consumer confidence that could drive future spending.
- Bitcoin Rebounds: Bitcoin surged over 11% from a 1.25-year low, lifting cryptocurrency-exposed stocks and signaling renewed investor interest and confidence in crypto assets.
- Strong Corporate Earnings: Over 79% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations, with S&P earnings growth projected at 8.4% for Q4, providing robust support for the market and indicating ongoing improvement in corporate profitability.
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