VST Should I Buy
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Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. VST is in a short-term downtrend (bearish MA stack and weakening MACD) and just broke below the key pivot (162). With earnings on 2026-02-26 (pre-market), the near-term setup favors waiting for a cleaner reversal (e.g., reclaiming ~162 and holding) or a deeper dip closer to strong support (155 or ~151).
Trend is bearish in the near term: SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 confirms downside momentum and a declining structure. MACD histogram (-0.0833) is below zero and negatively expanding, suggesting selling pressure is still building. RSI(6) ~39.5 is not deeply oversold, so there may be room for more downside before a strong mean-reversion bounce. Key levels: Pivot 162.082 (now resistance), Resistance R1 168.709, R2 172.804; Support S1 155.454 then S2 151.359. With price ~158, risk/reward is mixed: it’s above S1 (limited immediate cushion) while still under the pivot (trend not repaired). Pattern-based projection is modest near-term (next day +0.28%) and slightly negative next week (-0.12%), with a more constructive next-month bias (+5.95%), but that monthly upside is less actionable until the downtrend stabilizes.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
Street remains broadly constructive: multiple Overweight/Outperform/Buy ratings with targets still far above spot (~217–236 range), implying perceived upside if execution holds.
Cogentrix acquisition narrative + additional capacity/contract eligibility (per Wells Fargo) can be a medium-term fundamental tailwind.
Upcoming earnings (2026-02-
can act as a catalyst if forward commentary on power markets/data-center demand is strong.
Option volume skewed bullish today (put/call volume 0.65), hinting some dip-buying appetite.
Short-term technical damage: bearish MA alignment and weakening MACD increase odds of further downside before any durable bounce.
Earnings event risk on 2026-02-26: if guidance or integration economics disappoint, the stock can re-rate lower quickly.
Options open interest positioning is defensive (OI put/call 1.38), consistent with hedging demand.
Recent quarter showed sharp YoY declines in net income and EPS despite revenue growth—can keep investors cautious on quality of earnings and forward power-price sensitivity.
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $4.917B (+13.16% YoY), showing top-line growth. However, profitability weakened materially: net income fell to $604M (-67.17% YoY) and EPS dropped to 1.75 (-66.67% YoY). Gross margin improved to 42.44% (+10.29% YoY), but the big EPS/net income decline is a near-term negative for momentum investors and raises the bar for the upcoming Q4/FY25 report to re-accelerate earnings.
Analyst stance is still positive overall (Overweight/Outperform/Buy dominates), but the recent trend is price-target trimming: JPM (233 from 249), BMO (230 from 245), Seaport (232 from 238), Wells (236 from 238), Morgan Stanley (227 from 228). That pattern signals pros still like the story (power market tightness, electrification/data centers, capacity/contracts, M&A/integration upside) but are moderating expectations near-term. Wall Street ‘pros’ view—Pros: scale/diversified generation, cash flow resilience, demand tailwinds (hyperscale/data centers), potential catalysts from acquisitions and contracting. Cons: earnings volatility (recent EPS/NI drop), integration/execution risk, and near-term technical weakness.
