Greif projects adjusted EBITDA of $315 million for FY26.
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Nov 05 2025
0mins
Should l Buy GEF?
Financial Outlook: The company projects an adjusted free cash flow of $315 million for FY26.
Market Conditions: There has been a prolonged period of industrial contraction, with no significant demand recovery anticipated in the near future.
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Analyst Views on GEF
Wall Street analysts forecast GEF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEF is 71.25 USD with a low forecast of 60.00 USD and a high forecast of 79.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
0 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 73.960
Low
60.00
Averages
71.25
High
79.00
Current: 73.960
Low
60.00
Averages
71.25
High
79.00
About GEF
Greif, Inc. specializes in industrial packaging products and services. Its Customized Polymer Solutions segment is involved in the production and sale of a comprehensive line of polymer-based packaging products, such as plastic drums, rigid intermediate bulk containers and small plastics. The Durable Metal Solutions segment is involved in the production and sale of metal-based packaging products, including a variety of steel drums. The Sustainable Fiber Solutions segment is engaged in the production and sale of fiber-based packaging products, including fiber drums, corrugated sheets, corrugated containers, uncoated recycled board, coated recycled board, uncoated recycled board and coated recycled board. The Integrated Solutions segment is engaged in the production and sale of complimentary packaging products, such as paints, linings and closure systems for industrial packaging products and related services.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Greif, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Financial Performance Boost: Greif achieved a 24% increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026, with EBITDA margins improving by 260 basis points to 12.3%, demonstrating significant success in cost optimization despite ongoing soft demand.
- Share Repurchase Program: The company completed $130 million of its $150 million share repurchase program and received approval for a new $300 million authorization, indicating management's confidence in future cash flows and capital flexibility to support long-term value creation strategies.
- Market Demand Challenges: While demand in Customized Polymer Solutions remained flat, Durable Metal Solutions and Sustainable Fiber Solutions faced ongoing pressure, prompting management to emphasize aggressive commercial execution and targeted capacity expansions to address market challenges.
- Future Outlook: Greif reaffirmed its low-end guidance for 2026 of $630 million in adjusted EBITDA and $315 million in free cash flow, reflecting ongoing efforts in structural cost optimization and market price changes, although overall volumes were slightly below expectations.
See More
Greif Reports Q1 Earnings Miss with Lower Revenue
- Earnings Miss: Greif's Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.48 falls short by $0.20, indicating pressure on profitability that could undermine investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The company reports Q1 revenue of $994.8 million, a 2.5% year-over-year decrease, missing expectations and reflecting weak market demand that may lead to future performance challenges.
- Performance Warning: With both revenue and earnings missing targets, Greif may need to reassess its market strategies to address challenges posed by the current economic environment and ensure long-term growth.
- Investor Scrutiny: Following the earnings report, investors are likely to adopt a more cautious stance regarding Greif's future performance, which could impact its stock price, especially in a climate of heightened sensitivity to profitability.
See More
Greif (GEF) Set to Announce Q1 Earnings on January 27
- Earnings Announcement Date: Greif is scheduled to release its Q1 2023 earnings on January 27 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.68, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 74.4%, indicating improved profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The revenue estimate stands at $1.01 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of 20.5%, which highlights the challenges the company faces in the current economic environment that may impact its market performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Greif has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, demonstrating relative stability in its financial forecasting.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates have experienced one upward revision and three downward revisions, indicating mixed market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Greif (GEF) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
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Greif (GEF) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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Analysts Downgrade Shopify to Peer Perform Amid Market Adjustments
- Shopify Rating Downgrade: Wolfe Research analyst Shweta Khajuria downgraded Shopify Inc (NASDAQ:SHOP) from Outperform to Peer Perform, reflecting a cautious outlook on its growth potential, with shares closing at $166.21 on Monday, which may impact investor confidence.
- AGNC Investment Rating Change: BTIG analyst Eric Hagen downgraded AGNC Investment Corp (NASDAQ:AGNC) from Buy to Neutral, with shares closing at $11.07 on Monday, indicating concerns over its earnings stability that could lead to capital outflows.
- D.R. Horton Price Target Cut: Wells Fargo analyst Sam Reid downgraded D.R. Horton Inc (NYSE:DHI) from Overweight to Equal-Weight and reduced the price target from $180 to $155, with shares closing at $146.48 on Monday, reflecting a cautious outlook on the housing market.
- Sonoco Products Rating Adjustment: Wells Fargo analyst Gabe Hajde downgraded Sonoco Products Co (NYSE:SON) from Overweight to Equal-Weight and slashed the price target from $52 to $47, with shares closing at $45.64 on Monday, indicating concerns over its profitability that may affect its stock performance.
See More
Greif, Inc. Q1 2026 Earnings Call Insights
- Financial Performance Boost: Greif achieved a 24% increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2026, with EBITDA margins improving by 260 basis points to 12.3%, demonstrating significant success in cost optimization despite ongoing soft demand.
- Share Repurchase Program: The company completed $130 million of its $150 million share repurchase program and received approval for a new $300 million authorization, indicating management's confidence in future cash flows and capital flexibility to support long-term value creation strategies.
- Market Demand Challenges: While demand in Customized Polymer Solutions remained flat, Durable Metal Solutions and Sustainable Fiber Solutions faced ongoing pressure, prompting management to emphasize aggressive commercial execution and targeted capacity expansions to address market challenges.
- Future Outlook: Greif reaffirmed its low-end guidance for 2026 of $630 million in adjusted EBITDA and $315 million in free cash flow, reflecting ongoing efforts in structural cost optimization and market price changes, although overall volumes were slightly below expectations.
See More
Greif Reports Q1 Earnings Miss with Lower Revenue
- Earnings Miss: Greif's Q1 non-GAAP EPS of $0.48 falls short by $0.20, indicating pressure on profitability that could undermine investor confidence.
- Revenue Decline: The company reports Q1 revenue of $994.8 million, a 2.5% year-over-year decrease, missing expectations and reflecting weak market demand that may lead to future performance challenges.
- Performance Warning: With both revenue and earnings missing targets, Greif may need to reassess its market strategies to address challenges posed by the current economic environment and ensure long-term growth.
- Investor Scrutiny: Following the earnings report, investors are likely to adopt a more cautious stance regarding Greif's future performance, which could impact its stock price, especially in a climate of heightened sensitivity to profitability.
See More
Greif (GEF) Set to Announce Q1 Earnings on January 27
- Earnings Announcement Date: Greif is scheduled to release its Q1 2023 earnings on January 27 after market close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.68, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 74.4%, indicating improved profitability.
- Revenue Expectations: The revenue estimate stands at $1.01 billion, representing a year-over-year decline of 20.5%, which highlights the challenges the company faces in the current economic environment that may impact its market performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Greif has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, demonstrating relative stability in its financial forecasting.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen five upward revisions and one downward revision, while revenue estimates have experienced one upward revision and three downward revisions, indicating mixed market sentiment regarding the company's future performance.
See More
Greif (GEF) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Greif (GEF) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
See More
Analysts Downgrade Shopify to Peer Perform Amid Market Adjustments
- Shopify Rating Downgrade: Wolfe Research analyst Shweta Khajuria downgraded Shopify Inc (NASDAQ:SHOP) from Outperform to Peer Perform, reflecting a cautious outlook on its growth potential, with shares closing at $166.21 on Monday, which may impact investor confidence.
- AGNC Investment Rating Change: BTIG analyst Eric Hagen downgraded AGNC Investment Corp (NASDAQ:AGNC) from Buy to Neutral, with shares closing at $11.07 on Monday, indicating concerns over its earnings stability that could lead to capital outflows.
- D.R. Horton Price Target Cut: Wells Fargo analyst Sam Reid downgraded D.R. Horton Inc (NYSE:DHI) from Overweight to Equal-Weight and reduced the price target from $180 to $155, with shares closing at $146.48 on Monday, reflecting a cautious outlook on the housing market.
- Sonoco Products Rating Adjustment: Wells Fargo analyst Gabe Hajde downgraded Sonoco Products Co (NYSE:SON) from Overweight to Equal-Weight and slashed the price target from $52 to $47, with shares closing at $45.64 on Monday, indicating concerns over its profitability that may affect its stock performance.
See More
