Not a good buy right now: price (~75.44) has already jumped (+4.26% regular, +1.99% pre) and is pushing into near-term resistance, while upside looks limited versus current Wall St. targets.
Momentum is bullish, but short-term is extended (RSI6 ~75.7) and risk/reward is less attractive for an impatient entry.
Event/news tone is positive (EBITDA up, buyback authorization), but fundamentals are mixed (revenue down sharply YoY; guidance reaffirmed at low end).
Trend: Bullish structure with moving averages aligned higher (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), confirming an uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is positive and expanding (bullish continuation signal).
Stretch/overbought risk: RSI_6 at ~75.7 suggests the stock is short-term extended even if trend remains up.
Levels: Pivot ~72.23; support S1 ~69.45. Resistance: R1 ~75.00 has been exceeded; next resistance R2 ~76.71. Current ~75.44 sits between R1 and R2, implying less “clean” upside before the next supply zone.
Pattern-based outlook (provided): ~90% chance of +0.65% next day, +4.61% next week, +6.27% next month (positive skew, but much of the near-term move may already be in progress).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Open interest put/call ratio 0.45 is call-leaning (generally bullish).
Flow today: Put volume is 0 vs call volume 14 (volume put/call = 0.0), suggesting bullish/neutral near-term sentiment, but overall volume is light.
Volatility: 30D IV ~27.9 vs historical vol ~23.5 (IV moderately elevated). IV percentile ~61 indicates IV is not cheap; option buyers are paying a moderate premium.
Liquidity/activity: Today’s option volume is ~60.9% of 30D average (below average), so the sentiment read is less robust.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
keeps momentum traders engaged if it can hold above that level.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Fundamental top-line pressure: Q1 2026 revenue down ~21.4% YoY (demand/end-market softness remains a headwind).
Segment challenges noted in Durable Metal Solutions and Sustainable Fiber Solutions.
Guidance tone: reaffirmed at the low end for 2026 (not an upgrade catalyst).
Wall Street stance is mostly Neutral/Hold and price targets cluster near the current price, limiting perceived upside.
No notable hedge fund/insider buying trend flagged; no “must-follow” accumulation signal.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2026/Q1.
Revenue: $994.8M, down ~21.41% YoY (negative growth trend on the top line).
Profitability: Gross margin improved to ~20.37% (+5.05% YoY), consistent with the EBITDA/margin improvement commentary.
Net income: $174.6M, up ~1930% YoY (likely aided by non-operating/one-time factors; not clearly mirrored in EPS as provided).
EPS: shown as 0 (down 100% YoY in the snapshot), which conflicts with net income strength—treat as a data inconsistency, but overall takeaway is “margins improved, revenue weak.”
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets were raised (Baird to $75, BofA to $75, Truist to $79), but ratings largely stayed Neutral/Hold; Wells Fargo downgraded to Equal Weight (PT $72) citing lack of catalysts.
Where Street sits now: Most firms are effectively saying execution is good, but end-markets/catalysts are not strong enough to justify a bullish rating.
Pros (Wall St. view): Better execution, improving margins/EBITDA, buybacks supportive.
Cons (Wall St. view): Sluggish packaging volumes/consumer softness, K-shaped demand concerns, and limited near-term catalysts; current price is already around the common ~$75 target.
Wall Street analysts forecast GEF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEF is 71.25 USD with a low forecast of 60 USD and a high forecast of 79 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GEF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GEF is 71.25 USD with a low forecast of 60 USD and a high forecast of 79 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 73.960
Low
60
Averages
71.25
High
79
Current: 73.960
Low
60
Averages
71.25
High
79
Baird
Neutral
maintain
$60 -> $75
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
Reason
Baird
Price Target
$60 -> $75
AI Analysis
2026-01-29
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Baird raised the firm's price target on Greif to $75 from $60 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following results which showed good execution despite lousy end-markets.
BofA
Neutral
maintain
$74 -> $75
2026-01-29
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$74 -> $75
2026-01-29
maintain
Neutral
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Greif (GEF) to $75 from $74 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm updated its views on Packaging Corp. (PKG) and Greif after the companies' calendar Q4 calls.
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