Green Plains Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 3d ago
0mins
Should l Buy GPRE?
Source: seekingalpha
- Earnings Beat: Green Plains reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.17, exceeding expectations by $0.16, indicating resilience in profitability despite challenging market conditions.
- Significant Revenue Decline: The company's revenue of $428.8 million represents a 26.6% year-over-year decline and fell short of the $538.3 million forecast, highlighting ongoing demand challenges in the market.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Given the revenue miss, investors may adopt a cautious stance regarding the company's growth outlook, potentially impacting stock performance in a competitive landscape.
- Financial Data Review: Historical earnings data for Green Plains shows that despite facing challenges, the company is striving to maintain profitability, necessitating attention to strategic adjustments to navigate market fluctuations.
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Analyst Views on GPRE
Wall Street analysts forecast GPRE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GPRE is 11.50 USD with a low forecast of 9.00 USD and a high forecast of 15.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
2 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 12.660
Low
9.00
Averages
11.50
High
15.00
Current: 12.660
Low
9.00
Averages
11.50
High
15.00
About GPRE
Green Plains Inc. is a biorefining company. The Company is focused on the development and utilization of fermentation, agricultural and biological technologies in the processing of annually renewable crops into sustainable value-added ingredients. This includes the production of cleaner low carbon biofuels and renewable feedstocks for advanced biofuels. The Company is a producer of Sequence and novel ingredients for animal and aquaculture diets. Its ethanol production segment includes the production, storage and transportation of ethanol, distillers grains, ultra-high protein and renewable corn oil at ten biorefineries in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and Tennessee. Its Agribusiness and Energy Services segment includes grain procurement, with over 20.2 million bushels of grain storage capacity, and its commodity marketing business, which markets, sells and distributes the ethanol, distillers’ grains, protein and renewable corn oil produced at its ethanol plants.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Green Plains Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Green Plains reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.17, exceeding expectations by $0.16, indicating resilience in profitability despite challenging market conditions.
- Significant Revenue Decline: The company's revenue of $428.8 million represents a 26.6% year-over-year decline and fell short of the $538.3 million forecast, highlighting ongoing demand challenges in the market.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Given the revenue miss, investors may adopt a cautious stance regarding the company's growth outlook, potentially impacting stock performance in a competitive landscape.
- Financial Data Review: Historical earnings data for Green Plains shows that despite facing challenges, the company is striving to maintain profitability, necessitating attention to strategic adjustments to navigate market fluctuations.
See More
Green Plains Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 5th
- Earnings Announcement Date: Green Plains is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 5th before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.06, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 107%, indicating improved profitability.
- Revenue Expectations Decline: Despite strong EPS expectations, the consensus revenue estimate stands at $538.3 million, representing a 7.8% year-over-year decline, suggesting potential sales pressures that could impact overall financial performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past year, Green Plains has only beaten EPS and revenue estimates 25% of the time, highlighting challenges in meeting market expectations, which may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward revisions and four downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced one upward revision and four downward revisions, indicating mixed market sentiment regarding the company's future performance and potential stock price volatility.
See More
Green Plains and Albemarle See Surge in Options Trading Volume
- Green Plains Options Activity: Green Plains Inc. recorded options trading volume of 5,636 contracts, equivalent to approximately 563,600 shares, representing about 49.9% of its average daily trading volume of 1.1 million shares over the past month, indicating heightened market interest in its future performance.
- High Volume Insights: Notably, the $14 strike call option expiring on February 20, 2026, saw 5,151 contracts traded today, representing around 515,100 underlying shares, suggesting strong bullish sentiment among investors regarding the stock's potential upside.
- Albemarle Options Surge: Albemarle Corp. experienced options trading volume of 15,719 contracts, translating to approximately 1.6 million shares, or about 48.4% of its average daily trading volume of 3.2 million shares over the past month, reflecting active market engagement with its stock.
- Key Call Option Activity: The $200 strike call option expiring on March 20, 2026, recorded a trading volume of 5,440 contracts today, representing approximately 544,000 shares, indicating investor confidence in Albemarle's future growth prospects.
See More
Green Plains Appoints Ann Reis as CFO to Drive Long-Term Strategy
- Executive Appointment: Green Plains announced the appointment of Ann Reis as Chief Financial Officer, effective January 6, 2026, aiming to leverage her financial leadership and industry experience to advance the company's long-term strategic objectives.
- Leadership Advantage: Reis brings extensive financial and operational expertise from her previous roles as CFO and Chief Accounting Officer at Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy, which is expected to enhance Green Plains' operational excellence and measurement-driven results.
- Strategic Support: CEO Chris Osowski emphasized that Reis's collaborative leadership style and strategic insights will support the company's long-term growth strategy, further strengthening the team's execution capabilities.
- Industry Experience: Reis's addition not only brings a fresh perspective to the company but also fosters collaboration with senior leadership, driving Green Plains' continued development in the renewable energy sector.
See More
GPRE Achieves Significant Milestone with CO2 Capture at All Three Nebraska Facilities
Green Plains Inc. Carbon Sequestration: Green Plains Inc. has successfully implemented permanent sequestration of biogenic carbon dioxide from its Nebraska facilities, marking a significant achievement for the company and the local bioeconomy.
Financial Performance and Tax Credits: The company received its first clean fuel production credit payment of approximately $14 million and anticipates further payments in 2026, reflecting its commitment to a low-carbon growth strategy.
Stock Performance Comparison: GPRE's shares have declined by 10.8% over the past year, slightly worse than the industry average decline of 10.4%, and currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
AI Investment Opportunities: The article discusses the potential for significant wealth creation in the next phase of AI, highlighting under-the-radar companies that may benefit from this growth, contrasting with the leveling off of the initial wave of AI stocks.
See More
Green Plains Achieves Carbon Capture Milestone, Receives $14M Tax Credit Payment
- Carbon Capture Achievement: Green Plains successfully captures biogenic CO2 from its three Nebraska facilities and transports it via the Trailblazer pipeline to Tallgrass' storage hub, marking a significant milestone in large-scale commercial carbon capture and storage, thereby advancing the Nebraskan bioeconomy.
- Tax Credit Revenue: The company received its first payment of approximately $14 million under the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit program, demonstrating the effectiveness of its low-carbon strategy, with additional payments expected in Q1 2026, further enhancing financial performance.
- Low-Carbon Strategy Advancement: As of September, Green Plains generated about $26.5 million in 45Z value prior to activating carbon capture systems, indicating that ongoing efforts to reduce product carbon intensity will increase future credit values and strengthen market competitiveness.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: The CEO stated that as the low-carbon platform continues to advance, Green Plains is unlocking new value, which is expected to drive future growth and deliver long-term returns for shareholders.
See More
Green Plains Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Beat: Green Plains reported a Q4 GAAP EPS of $0.17, exceeding expectations by $0.16, indicating resilience in profitability despite challenging market conditions.
- Significant Revenue Decline: The company's revenue of $428.8 million represents a 26.6% year-over-year decline and fell short of the $538.3 million forecast, highlighting ongoing demand challenges in the market.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Given the revenue miss, investors may adopt a cautious stance regarding the company's growth outlook, potentially impacting stock performance in a competitive landscape.
- Financial Data Review: Historical earnings data for Green Plains shows that despite facing challenges, the company is striving to maintain profitability, necessitating attention to strategic adjustments to navigate market fluctuations.
See More
Green Plains Set to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 5th
- Earnings Announcement Date: Green Plains is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 5th before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.06, reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 107%, indicating improved profitability.
- Revenue Expectations Decline: Despite strong EPS expectations, the consensus revenue estimate stands at $538.3 million, representing a 7.8% year-over-year decline, suggesting potential sales pressures that could impact overall financial performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past year, Green Plains has only beaten EPS and revenue estimates 25% of the time, highlighting challenges in meeting market expectations, which may affect investor confidence moving forward.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, EPS estimates have seen three upward revisions and four downward revisions, while revenue estimates have experienced one upward revision and four downward revisions, indicating mixed market sentiment regarding the company's future performance and potential stock price volatility.
See More
Green Plains and Albemarle See Surge in Options Trading Volume
- Green Plains Options Activity: Green Plains Inc. recorded options trading volume of 5,636 contracts, equivalent to approximately 563,600 shares, representing about 49.9% of its average daily trading volume of 1.1 million shares over the past month, indicating heightened market interest in its future performance.
- High Volume Insights: Notably, the $14 strike call option expiring on February 20, 2026, saw 5,151 contracts traded today, representing around 515,100 underlying shares, suggesting strong bullish sentiment among investors regarding the stock's potential upside.
- Albemarle Options Surge: Albemarle Corp. experienced options trading volume of 15,719 contracts, translating to approximately 1.6 million shares, or about 48.4% of its average daily trading volume of 3.2 million shares over the past month, reflecting active market engagement with its stock.
- Key Call Option Activity: The $200 strike call option expiring on March 20, 2026, recorded a trading volume of 5,440 contracts today, representing approximately 544,000 shares, indicating investor confidence in Albemarle's future growth prospects.
See More
Green Plains Appoints Ann Reis as CFO to Drive Long-Term Strategy
- Executive Appointment: Green Plains announced the appointment of Ann Reis as Chief Financial Officer, effective January 6, 2026, aiming to leverage her financial leadership and industry experience to advance the company's long-term strategic objectives.
- Leadership Advantage: Reis brings extensive financial and operational expertise from her previous roles as CFO and Chief Accounting Officer at Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy, which is expected to enhance Green Plains' operational excellence and measurement-driven results.
- Strategic Support: CEO Chris Osowski emphasized that Reis's collaborative leadership style and strategic insights will support the company's long-term growth strategy, further strengthening the team's execution capabilities.
- Industry Experience: Reis's addition not only brings a fresh perspective to the company but also fosters collaboration with senior leadership, driving Green Plains' continued development in the renewable energy sector.
See More
GPRE Achieves Significant Milestone with CO2 Capture at All Three Nebraska Facilities
Green Plains Inc. Carbon Sequestration: Green Plains Inc. has successfully implemented permanent sequestration of biogenic carbon dioxide from its Nebraska facilities, marking a significant achievement for the company and the local bioeconomy.
Financial Performance and Tax Credits: The company received its first clean fuel production credit payment of approximately $14 million and anticipates further payments in 2026, reflecting its commitment to a low-carbon growth strategy.
Stock Performance Comparison: GPRE's shares have declined by 10.8% over the past year, slightly worse than the industry average decline of 10.4%, and currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).
AI Investment Opportunities: The article discusses the potential for significant wealth creation in the next phase of AI, highlighting under-the-radar companies that may benefit from this growth, contrasting with the leveling off of the initial wave of AI stocks.
See More
Green Plains Achieves Carbon Capture Milestone, Receives $14M Tax Credit Payment
- Carbon Capture Achievement: Green Plains successfully captures biogenic CO2 from its three Nebraska facilities and transports it via the Trailblazer pipeline to Tallgrass' storage hub, marking a significant milestone in large-scale commercial carbon capture and storage, thereby advancing the Nebraskan bioeconomy.
- Tax Credit Revenue: The company received its first payment of approximately $14 million under the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit program, demonstrating the effectiveness of its low-carbon strategy, with additional payments expected in Q1 2026, further enhancing financial performance.
- Low-Carbon Strategy Advancement: As of September, Green Plains generated about $26.5 million in 45Z value prior to activating carbon capture systems, indicating that ongoing efforts to reduce product carbon intensity will increase future credit values and strengthen market competitiveness.
- Long-Term Growth Potential: The CEO stated that as the low-carbon platform continues to advance, Green Plains is unlocking new value, which is expected to drive future growth and deliver long-term returns for shareholders.
See More
