Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: price is extended (RSI72) and sitting just below near-term resistance (12.96) ahead of a binary earnings event.
Options positioning is very bullish (heavy call bias + unusually high volume), but that also raises the chance of a post-earnings "sell-the-news" pullback if results/guidance aren’t clearly better than expectations.
Technical trend is bullish, so if earnings are strong and price breaks/holds above ~12.96, the setup improves; at current levels into earnings, risk/reward is unfavorable.
Activity: Today’s option volume 7,114, about 603.9% of 30D average (unusually elevated, likely earnings-related positioning).
Volatility: 30D IV 76.38% vs historical vol 52.49% (options pricing in a large move); IV percentile 57.37 (elevated but not extreme).
Interpretation: Market is leaning bullish into the catalyst, but elevated IV increases the odds of post-event IV crush and whipsaw even if the stock moves the "right" direction.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
earnings pre-market 2026-02-05** (consensus EPS around $0.06–$0.08 depending on source lines).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Earnings risk: Over the past year, Green Plains has only beaten EPS and revenue estimates 25% of the time (lower confidence heading into the print).
Estimate direction: Past 3 months show more downward than upward revisions (EPS: 3 up / 4 down; Revenue: 1 up / 4 down), suggesting deteriorating consensus.
Takeaway: The most recent quarter shows weakening YoY fundamentals; the bull case near-term depends heavily on Q4 execution and 45Z-related contribution continuing.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets have been lifted, but ratings remain cautious.
[2026-02-03] UBS: PT raised $7 → $12, rating Neutral (acknowledges improvement, not a high-conviction buy).
[2025-11-06] Roth: Downgraded to Neutral from Buy, PT $10 unchanged; argued shares reached PT and margins could contract; also questioned conservatism of 45Z accounting.
Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros—45Z/ethanol tailwinds and raised PTs; Cons—neutral ratings dominate, margin seasonality concerns, and recent YoY financial deterioration.
Wall Street analysts forecast GPRE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GPRE is 11.5 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GPRE stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GPRE is 11.5 USD with a low forecast of 9 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
2 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 12.660
Low
9
Averages
11.5
High
15
Current: 12.660
Low
9
Averages
11.5
High
15
Oppenheimer
Kristen Owen
Outperform
maintain
$14 -> $16
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
Reason
Oppenheimer
Kristen Owen
Price Target
$14 -> $16
AI Analysis
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Oppenheimer analyst Kristen Owen raised the firm's price target on Green Plains to $16 from $14 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm says the company reported a strong finish to a rocky 2025 driven by solid ethanol operations and carbon toward the high end of management's expectations. The framework for 2026 is ahead of Street estimates, with Green Plains anticipating at least $188M in carbon credits, and continued execution in the core business.
BMO Capital
Market Perform
maintain
$12 -> $14
2026-02-06
New
Reason
BMO Capital
Price Target
$12 -> $14
2026-02-06
New
maintain
Market Perform
Reason
BMO Capital raised the firm's price target on Green Plains to $14 from $12 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares. The company's Q4 EBITDA of $49M exceeded $35M consensus on better ethanol performance, which benefited from hedges and included $28mm of 45Z tax credits, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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